61. Christian Wood
62. OG Anunoby
63. Josh Giddey
64. Keldon Johnson
65. Jalen Brunson
66. Jordan Poole
67. Tyrese Maxey
68. Michael Porter
69. Draymond Green
70. Desmond Bane
71. Devin Vassell
72. Jamal Murray
73. Jalen Smith
74. Buddy Hield
75. Paolo Banchero
76. Wendell Carter
77. Lauri Markkanen
78. Al Horford
79. D’Angelo Russell
80. Franz Wagner
81. Kevin Porter Jr
82. Mikal Bridges
83. Klay Thompson
84. Jusuf Nurkic
Round 1
Rounds 2 & 3
Rounds 4 & 5
Rounds 8 & 9
Late Round Picks
61. Christian Wood – DAL – PF/C
SR Value (Rank): 0.420 (63)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.129 (86)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.150 (84)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.551 (62)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.578 (64)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 65 | 29 | 18.0 | 1.8 | 9.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.513 | 12.9 | 0.650 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.385 | 4.6 |
| 21-22 | 68 | 30.8 | 17.9 | 1.9 | 10.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.502 | 12.9 | 0.623 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.390 | 4.9 |
| 20-21 | 41 | 32.3 | 21.0 | 1.9 | 9.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.515 | 15.6 | 0.631 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.374 | 5.0 |
Season Outlook
Christian Wood represents an interesting player to draft in fantasy this year. On one hand there is what Dallas needs him to be – a competent number 2 who pops in ~20ppg with 10 boards and plays good enough defence. Then there’s the fact he is playing for his career in the last year of a contract that will define his free agency. Is he a end of the roster bench big who only plays when there is injuries because he’s inefficient? Is he still a distraction that’s not worth having on a contender or a young team that’s looking to grow? A lot of questions Wood will need to answer but he is in the right place to answer those questions. For all of Jason Kidd’s shortcomings as a coach he is a good locker room presence and will not tolerate any rubbish from Wood. Moving to a legit contender in a legit role should hopefully motivate wood and we could see the type of production we saw in 20-21. The flip side is it might all fall apart by the all-star break. I’m optimistic personally – I think when these things (contract, role, mentors) fall into place for a talented player it typically brings the best out of them.
Punting Strategy
- Punt FT – an element of Wood’s game that doesn’t seem right is his FT%. He can hit 3s at an elite clip for a big man but this unusually doesn’t translate at the line. Wood actually helps us in a few really key areas in Punt FT builds – namely points and 3s while keeping us up in boards and blocks. A useful alternative if you’ve missed the traditional big men.
- Balanced – Wood’s hit on FT% is high. It can be hidden but it will be hard. However you are likely going to at times find yourself hurting for a big man in round 6. If Wood slips into the later part of the round, he could be value. His FT% is saveable – he has had 70%+ years and with such a good outside game there’s high potential for huge improvement.
Observations
- Keen to watch his role early in preseason. I expect him to come off the bench initially as Kidd makes him earn his minutes. Don’t panic with this as I expect him to win over starters minutes by Christmas. This means we might get something like 28 mins for the first couple of months and 32 minutes from January onwards.
62. OG Anunoby – TOR – SF/PF
SR Value (Rank): 0.319 (90)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.340 (42)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.148 (85)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.503 (73)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.271 (131)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 55 | 35 | 17.7 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.474 | 14.1 | 0.765 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.380 | 6.3 |
| 21-22 | 48 | 36.0 | 17.1 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.444 | 14.5 | 0.754 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.363 | 6.6 |
| 20-21 | 43 | 33.3 | 15.9 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.479 | 12.1 | 0.784 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.398 | 6.1 |
Season Outlook
OG is guy who should really go a lot higher in drafts than he has been. There was a lot of speculation his assists would shoot up last year but with the emergency of Scottie Barnes and injuries this didn’t come to fruition for OG. Health is the primary reason he finds himself down on my board. I think there’s top 50 finish upside here easily, especially if he can hit his 3s like 20-21. Toronto plays aggressive defence which should help him continue to be an influence defensively whilst his FG% really suffered from prolonged slumps last year – something I expect to return to prior form. The risk here is can he play 55-60 games to be fantasy relevant for long enough to win you something?
Punting Strategy
- Punt Assists – I like OG in punt assists. His returns in the assists category are far from poor but they aren’t a major selling point either. What he does bring is elite points, 3s and steals from the forward spot which is what this build needs most.
- Punt FT – Points, 3s, steals with a sprinkle of assists and blocks on decent FG%. Ticks the boxes.
Observations
- Watch his shots in preseason. He is at risk of becoming the 5th offensive option for the Raptors this year so drop him down a bit if it appears he is just holding down a corner 3 spot.
63. Josh Giddey – OKC – SG
SR Value (Rank): 0.346 (80)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.071 (101)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.003 (126)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.502 (75)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.379 (95)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 60 | 34 | 15.7 | 1.4 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.450 | 14.2 | 0.745 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 0.300 | 4.7 |
| 21-22 | 54 | 31.5 | 12.5 | 1.0 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.420 | 12.4 | 0.709 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 0.263 | 3.9 |
| 20-21 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 |
Season Outlook
Josh Giddey is a guy who was way too high on a lot of early draft boards (consistently top 50). I have had him as low as around 90 for most of the preseason but upon re-interrogating the data that’s unfair. Once he settled into his role and found his groove last year across his 24 games in January & February before his season ending hip injury he averaged 14.5p 8.6r 6.8a 1s with 45% FG and 78% FT and a triple in 33 mins. The February component of that took it up another notch with averages of 16p 8.7r 7.7a 1s on 46.6% FG and 77% FT with a triple in 33 mins. So a well rounded line is there for him, especially if SGA misses time. His FT% improvement will be key to this rise, as will an improved 3 ball. He needs to shoot well in excess of 30% for his rating to enter top 50. His numbers suggest he’s more of a round 7 or 8 guy, but I think there’s still upside in my projected line here in order to role the dice on a guy that has 17p 1t 9r 9a 1s .5b upside.
Punting Strategy
- Punt FT – particularly useful in the punt 3s variant of this build but still relevant in vanilla punt FT. I expect improvement in FT% but still nothing that’s going to anchor value. The real value here is the assists and boards – you can use him in place of a big man for his rebounding.
- Punt FG / Punt Blocks – I have grouped these as the value is the same. Out of position rebounds for a build that desperately needs them. You don’t miss out on assists here, but you’ll want a strong base in scoring for it to work.
Observations
- I’ll primarily be watching his 3PA, 3P% and FT% in preseason as these will be his key value drivers this year. The minutes will climb which push all of his counting stats up.
64. Keldon Johnson – SAS – SF/PF
SR Value (Rank): 0.412 (66)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.265 (58)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.378 (40)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.502 (74)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.643 (60)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 70 | 34 | 21.8 | 2.9 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.463 | 17.0 | 0.750 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.385 | 7.6 |
| 21-22 | 75 | 31.9 | 17.0 | 2.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.466 | 13.5 | 0.756 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.398 | 5.3 |
| 20-21 | 69 | 28.5 | 12.8 | 0.9 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.480 | 10.2 | 0.740 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.331 | 2.6 |
Season Outlook
I’m not particularly concerned by the shoulder injury. He should be back for week 1 of the regular season and as such it might just give those picking ahead of us a slight bit of doubt heading into the season. Keldon looks placed to be the primary option in San Antonio this year – filling the void from Dejounte Murray’s departure. We saw an uptick in KJ’s assists (over 3 per game) down the stretch last year and I expect tis to continue. We could see even up to 4 assists per game. Where we need Keldon to improve to see any upside on this draft position is defensively. I expect 20ppg at least, and the boards and assists will be there. But can he be more than a 3 stat guy is left to be seen. If he can get up to the 1.1-1.2 level defensively, we will see a player taken in the top 45 next year.
Punting Strategy
- Punt FG / Punt Blocks – intent here is the same. A scorer who will provide above average rebounding out of the SF spot. Will give elite 3s, a steal and some assists to go with it.
- Balanced – no glaring weaknesses in his game – volume will increase which may hurt efficiency somewhat but I’m not expecting anything that won’t fit into most builds.
Observations
- Will be key to see what shifts in his game as he takes a more on ball role. 3s may not trend up as much as I expect and turnovers may also rise – keep these in mind but still draft with a view on his upside.
65. Jalen Brunson – NYK – PG/SG
SR Value (Rank): 0.408 (67)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.176 (75)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.294 (51)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.482 (80)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.670 (57)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 70 | 34 | 18.6 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.503 | 14.6 | 0.815 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.375 | 4.3 |
| 21-22 | 79 | 31.9 | 16.3 | 1.2 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.502 | 12.8 | 0.840 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.373 | 3.2 |
| 20-21 | 68 | 25.0 | 12.6 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.523 | 9.2 | 0.795 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.405 | 2.9 |
Season Outlook
A change of scenery for the Mavericks upstart playoff performer. With his old man on the staff at the Knicks a reunion was on the cards. He’s tough, he’s gritty and I think he is a perfect fit in NYC with the Knicks. He offers an incredibly efficient line and elite A/TO ratio two extremely desirable traits. He isn’t the biggest volume 3 point shooter but that is fine as we can source those elsewhere, especially considering his FG% will help us sit steady in that category. His steals leave a little to be desired but playing in a gritty defensive team should help these somewhat.
Punting Strategy
- Punt Rebs/Blocks – the dream in smaller builds punting a big man category as he will keep our FG% afloat if we do not wish to double punt.
- Punt Steals – light on in a category we typically expect from a guard. He has upside here at the knicks but it isn’t what he’s known for.
- Balanced – with a reasonably hurt free line Brunson can fit almost any build, you will definitely want to have a strong base in defensive categories when drafting him.
Observations
- Spacing isn’t great on this Knicks team, certainly worse than in Dallas and this may effect his overall Assist numbers. Keep an eye on his role in NYC – I have built the projection around him being the 3rd option and primary facilitator.
66. Jordan Poole – GSW – PG/SG
SR Value (Rank): 0.382 (75)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.214 (69)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.233 (68)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.501 (77)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.526 (74)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 65 | 31 | 19.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.450 | 14.6 | 0.900 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.375 | 8.2 |
| 21-22 | 76 | 30.0 | 18.5 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.448 | 13.9 | 0.925 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.364 | 7.6 |
| 20-21 | 51 | 19.4 | 12.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.432 | 9.3 | 0.882 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.351 | 5.4 |
Season Outlook
Poole broke out as a 3rd splash brother last year popping onto the scene as an ultra-efficient shooter and backup point guard. Minutes are the key for Poole and I think he will get plenty. He had 30 a game last year but will benefit from Curry and Klay being rested throughout the year. He will get all the backup PG minutes plus some minutes next to curry at the 2. When the Warriors are at full strength I expect his minutes to be around 28 or 29 but when Curry or Klay are out he will have 33+. We would like to see a bit more steals production and the confidence to let it fly. I think he continues to become more efficient and find the right shot – he is one of the best finishers at the rim in the NBA – likely a product of his athleticism and the space created by Curry and Klay. He is primarily a scorer with elite 3s and FT% but also gives a useful complement of assists with big upside if Curry or Klay miss time.
Punting Strategy
- Punt FT – similar to curry or other elite 3 point shooters the scoring, 3s and assists are the categories we are looking for throughout the draft and Poole offers an elite package.
- Punt Steals – where Poole is a little light for a guard is steals – punt them and we don’t need to worry.
- Balanced – a reasonable fit in all builds that require a scoring boost in R6.
Observations
- Minutes are key here – will be interesting to see when the dubs are fully healthy how many minutes Poole gets.
67. Tyrese Maxey – PHI – PG/SG
SR Value (Rank): 0.433 (61)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.234 (63)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.458 (32)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.491 (78)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.752 (46)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 75 | 36 | 17.2 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.455 | 13.0 | 0.865 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.385 | 6.0 |
| 21-22 | 75 | 35.3 | 17.5 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.486 | 13.2 | 0.866 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.427 | 4.1 |
| 20-21 | 61 | 15.3 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.461 | 7.0 | 0.871 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.301 | 1.7 |
Season Outlook
Tyrese broke onto the scene last year with a phenomenal season. He shot an incredible ~43% from 3 and this carried his net FG% to over 48%. This isn’t sustainable for mine, or at least isn’t viable for me to project into his game. I see a slight peel back in his game next year as Harden takes steps forward. Maxey’s role did decline with Harden (but his efficiency went way up due to 50% shooting from 3). His shots fell from 13.5 to 12.7 but 3s increased from 3.7 to 5.2 – an expected trend. His assists fell from 4.5 to 3.7 something I would expect to hold again next season. Durability is a massive factor here – so is the fact that Philly wants Maxey to take another big jump next season. They believe he can be a legitimate 3rd star – what that looks like I am not really sure, I think he will get more opportunities to run the second unit and hopefully that can unlock his potential. This ranking is well above the raw numbers (which to be fair I have been quite harsh on) which rank him more around 70. His durability is a big plus and if he can continue to hit 3s like last year on increased volume a top 50 finish is well within reach. The upside here is he’s young and the additional big jump Philly are after could look something like 20p 2.5t 3.5r 4.5a 1s on .475 .875 spreads on miniscule turnovers.
Punting Strategy
- Balanced – Maxey fits all builds with little to no weaknesses in his game. His steals are a little light for a guard but improved to above 1 a game when playing off ball with Harden last year so there’s decent upside and potential for more from him this year.
Observations
- Maxey is a player that plays into all the important ratios. He is a unicorn in that he yields both high FG% and 3s, a ~4:1 A/TO ratio and on good volume.
68. Michael Porter – DEN – SF/PF
SR Value (Rank): 0.334 (86)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.293 (54)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.007 (121)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.541 (67)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.254 (135)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 50 | 29 | 16.3 | 2.4 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.516 | 12.1 | 0.800 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.425 | 5.6 |
| 21-22 | 9 | 29.4 | 9.9 | 1.1 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.359 | 11.4 | 0.556 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.208 | 5.3 |
| 20-21 | 61 | 31.3 | 19.0 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.542 | 13.4 | 0.791 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.445 | 6.3 |
Season Outlook
I was unreasonably high on Michael Porter last year. I recommended taking him the early 20s, doing so myself in several drafts and paying for it. He offers a scintillating upside, especially in punt assist builds where he offers top 20. Last year I wrote “It’s not really a case of if he will be top 10 one day, it’s more a case of when” – but I am backing off that statement after his back let him down for the second time in 4 years (he did not play his rookie season due to a back injury). His talent is undeniable. He is actually the best contested shooter in the NBA – shooting 42% from 3 despite being one of the most closely guarded players in the NBA from range. His scoring is the selling point here but he does so incredibly efficiently. There’s still risk with the back despite him reportedly back to 100%.
Punting Strategy
- Punt Assists – the key play for Porter and the primary build you would consider him in round 6 for is Punt Assists. I would even dip into R5 for him in this build if other options are gone such is the upside.
- Balanced – Porter’s weaknesses are few – assists aren’t there but if you have taken enough guards early Porter is a fantastic efficient scorer.
Observations
- I have baked in a minute reduction and lower FGA to factor in a rising Bones Hyland and Murray’s return. It will important to see where Porter slots in to hierarchy – if he supplants Murray as the no.2 option and we get 20-21 stat line this is a steal.
69. Draymond Green – GSW – PF/C
SR Value (Rank): 0.379 (77)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.158 (76)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.003 (125)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.589 (57)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.339 (109)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 55 | 30 | 7.1 | 0.5 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.464 | 5.8 | 0.725 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 0.285 | 1.7 |
| 21-22 | 46 | 28.9 | 7.5 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.524 | 5.6 | 0.659 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.296 | 1.2 |
| 20-21 | 63 | 31.5 | 7.0 | 0.5 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.447 | 6.0 | 0.795 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 0.270 | 2.0 |
Season Outlook
Draymond this year is a weird one. I pretty much could only recommend him in punt points builds, but you almost can’t afford to miss him in these builds so would take him far earlier than this (R5) but on the flip side in almost all other builds you aren’t touching him until early R8 due to the rest and injury risk. I like Dray overall; his unique line is what makes fantasy interesting. Draymond guarded the rim a bit more than previous years last year, I think we see a little less of this in 22-23 with Wiseman playing some minutes. His minutes were down last year too which I think come back a little this season. Assists are also interesting,
Punting Strategy
- Punt Points – I can’t recommend Dray in any build outside Punt Points but he is a fantastic option in Punt Points or in a double punt with 3s. He gives us every other category and his %s are on low volume so don’t impact as much as you expect.
Observations
- Poole gave the Warriors an alternative this season who took the ball out of Draymonds hands a little. With Klay back in the starting line-up we could see Dray’s assists spike back up to around 8 per game.
70. Desmond Bane – MEM – PG/SG
SR Value (Rank): 0.440 (58)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.321 (47)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.488 (28)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.521 (70)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.716 (53)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 72 | 31 | 18.1 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.463 | 14.2 | 0.885 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.425 | 7.1 |
| 21-22 | 76 | 29.8 | 18.2 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.461 | 14.5 | 0.903 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.436 | 6.9 |
| 20-21 | 68 | 22.3 | 9.2 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.469 | 7.4 | 0.816 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.432 | 4.0 |
Season Outlook
Desmond Bane broke onto the scene last year – more of a roto guy given his hurt free line Bane ranks higher in full 9 Cat rankings. However he is still an incredible player in H2H. He offers a unique combination of 3 triples and above 45% FG%. This is akin to a 3 or 4:1 A/TO ratio that we crave out of the likes of CP3. This comes in real handy for Punt Boards or Blocks, Assists and FT% teams who need this kind of 3s/FG% combo. The risk with Bane is the health of Memphis other backcourt options – in particular Dillon Brooks. Brooks is a weird player – if you look at his box score stats you’d be like this guys inefficient and should be in a bench role or traded. But then his advanced metrics and on-court off-court metrics show he’s an incredibly impactful player – particularly at the defensive end. Coming back to the important factors – when Bane played with a healthy Brooks he averaged ~2 less ppg, 2.3 less shots per game (1.3 less 3PA), 2 less minutes (affecting all his other stats slightly) and .6 less FTA. However all of his efficiency markers trend up – he shoots 48.6% (!) from 3 with Bane playing (in 30 games so not a small sample size). All this is to say – there is some risk this season. 60 is high for a player who is essentially a 3 point specialist. But he’s a damn good one – he is essentially Klay Thompson 2.0 about to hit his prime.
Punting Strategy
- Punt FT – It’s very important to compete in 3s in punt FT builds. It can be very difficult to acquire efficient 3s. Players like Curry (both), Klay, Bane and Joe Harris are the primary sources of efficient 3 point specialists. If Bane slips to R6 he’s probably a must draft in Punt FT builds.
- Punt Assists – Being able to slot in 18ppg, 3 triples and 1.1+ steals on elite %s is damn good value that is amplified in a punt assists build.
- Punt Boards or Blocks: One of the most important variables when punting one of the big man categories is FG%. We want to dominate 3s but we don’t also want to punt FG%. Taking guys like Bane who have a fantastic 3P/FG% ratio is how we do this.
Observations
- The key thing to look for here is the shot distribution between Morant, Bane and Brooks. Brooks needs to be up around the 15 mark to justify this draft position. He also had absurd efficiency last year so even the slightest fall away here will kill this rating.
71. Devin Vassell – SAS – SG
SR Value (Rank): 0.383 (74)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.216 (68)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.237 (65)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.501 (76)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.527 (73)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 65 | 32 | 15.1 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.420 | 13.3 | 0.835 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.355 | 6.7 |
| 21-22 | 71 | 27.3 | 12.3 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.427 | 10.8 | 0.838 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.361 | 5.4 |
| 20-21 | 62 | 17.0 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.407 | 4.9 | 0.843 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.347 | 2.4 |
Season Outlook
Poised for a break out season Vassell has been going almost too early in a lot of drafts this year. A fantastic defender with decent outside shooting Vassell is set to be the no.2 option on offense for the Spurs in 22-23. Whilst there is a chance he becomes the number 1 guy I feel it is more likely we see him slot in as the number 2 behind Keldon Johnson. Vassell is an elite thief, definitely capable of a 1.5+ steal season as well as a very good shot blocker for his size. Theres definitely room for more scoring, 3s and improved FG% even on top of my projection.
Punting Strategy
- Punt FG – a primary option in this build for his elite defensive stats solid rebounding from the G position.
- Punt Assists – probably Vassell’s primary build. Provides all the things we look for, 3s, steals, points and great FT%.
Observations
- Vassell could easily flirt with 15 FGA per game which would likely come with 7 or 7.5 3PA as well lowering his FG% but improving his scoring and 3s significantly. Watch closely for this in preseason.
72. Jamal Murray – DEN – PG/SG
SR Value (Rank): 0.313 (91)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.209 (70)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.036 (110)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.483 (79)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.285 (128)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 55 | 33 | 19.2 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.461 | 15.6 | 0.865 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.375 | 6.0 |
| 21-22 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 |
| 20-21 | 48 | 35.5 | 21.2 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.477 | 16.5 | 0.869 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.408 | 6.6 |
Season Outlook
Returning from a torn ACL will be difficult for Murray in 22/23. It is important not to overlook that he will miss a lot of games as they re-introduce him into the line-up (a plus for Bones Hyland). With that said Murray offers an extremely valuable line as an efficient scoring point guard offering a very similar line to Terry Rozier taken several rounds ahead of him. His ability to play off Jokic is fantastic and forms part of impressive perimeter offense around the big Serbian. There is definitely upside in this line, I have given him a minutes drop as he reintroduces himself into the squad while his FG% takes a hit as he wears off the rust. Still a unique line sees him a value play in the 70/80s this year.
Punting Strategy
- Balanced – the appeal of Murray is that he fits almost any build. Whilst his blocks are very low so are most point guards, especially at this point of the draft so whilst he is a fit as most guards will be he comfortably fits all builds with good %s, low turnovers and a decent guard line.
Observations
- I have been extremely conservative with my projections for Jamal – I think taking him in the 80s represents the all upside point of selection I think
73. Jalen Smith – IND – PF/C
SR Value (Rank): 0.391 (71)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.150 (79)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.176 (79)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.515 (71)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.537 (71)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 65 | 28 | 14.8 | 1.5 | 8.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.501 | 10.9 | 0.755 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.355 | 4.3 |
| 21-22 | 51 | 18.1 | 9.2 | 0.8 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.503 | 6.9 | 0.765 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.328 | 2.4 |
| 20-21 | 27 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.442 | 1.8 | 0.714 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.235 | 0.6 |
Season Outlook
Big Jalen found a positive home for himself down the stretch in Indiana. The Pacers made a strong statement announcing him as the starting 4 back in July. This gives us strong inclination of his role and that he will be on the court for a much bigger role this year. Down the stretch for Indiana he averaged 13.5 7.5 and a block with 1.4 triples in ~25 mins. His minutes should climb to at least 28 but there is definitely further upside on that number in 22/23. A rare efficient big man with a 3 ball, rim protection and rebounds Jalen could represent Chris Boucher value from a couple of years ago and break out as a top 50 player. However the key difference here is that Jalen actually stacks up as a very good real life NBA player, offering him a path to bigger minutes.
Punting Strategy
- Punt Assists/Steals: the explanation here is the same. We get a big man with 3 point shooting and scoring (2 keys for the build) who doesn’t hurt our FT%. Tick and Tick.
- Balanced – fits all builds comfortably with a hurt free line. You will want to have gone early and often on assists and steals.
Observations
- Minutes are the key here – if it looks like he’s on for 32+ he is a top 50 player.
74. Buddy Hield – IND – SG/SF
SR Value (Rank): 0.417 (64)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.091 (95)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.280 (53)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.439 (91)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.791 (39)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 75 | 34 | 17.4 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.422 | 15.1 | 0.860 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 0.380 | 8.5 |
| 21-22 | 81 | 30.9 | 15.6 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.406 | 13.5 | 0.874 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.366 | 8.8 |
| 20-21 | 71 | 34.3 | 16.6 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.406 | 14.0 | 0.846 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.391 | 10.2 |
Season Outlook
The former King exploded in Indiana offering a playmaking ability we had not previously seen from him. In ~36 mins a night Hield put up 18 5 5 with a steal and 3 triples. The assists in particular were a delight and form a strong basis of his return to the top 75. He would be much higher if not for the looming trade rumours that present themselves. The Lakers have been rumoured to be interested and his role would greatly diminish if he was to be traded to LA as the 4th or 5th option there. In Indiana he is one of very few established wing players and the no.2 offensive threat next to Tyrese Haliburton. His ability to stay healthy over the course of his career a real strength, playing almost every game every year of his career.
Punting Strategy
- Punt FG – It is unclear whether Buddy will continue to maintain his significant improvement to FG% that we saw in Indiana. His shot diet improved with more high percentage 2 pointers thrown in for good measure improving his 2P% to 55% in Indiana (compared to 47% on his career in Sacramento). However this seems an unrealistic jump that I suspect at the very least trends back towards the mean.
- Balanced – Whilst his FG% represents a real challenge it greatly improved in Indiana as his shot palette became significantly more intelligent and his 3s were held more around 8.5 rather than blazing away at 10 or 11 per game like he had in Sacramento.
Observations
- The trade is the key thing to watch here, if its rumoured Lakers have re-engaged with Indiana or there are other strong links be careful as Buddy has a long way to drop off from here in other outfits.
75. Paolo Banchero – ORL – PF
SR Value (Rank): 0.343 (81)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.125 (88)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.146 (87)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.445 (88)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.483 (79)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 65 | 33 | 18.5 | 1.2 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.476 | 14.7 | 0.725 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.330 | 3.7 |
| 21-22 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 |
| 20-21 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 |
Season Outlook
The highest floor rookie is a bit of a reach here. But for good reason. Almost every season one or a couple of the top rookies way out play any reasonable expectation of them. So what you are buying here is upside not the projected numbers. The projected numbers mean far less for rookies (it’s me just taking a stab based on college production and perceived role) which is far less accurate than actual NBA per 36 numbers I use for all other players. What is accurate here is going to be the points and boards – Banchero has a legit 20 and 8 shot in his rookie season with some solid out of position assists. The FT% isn’t great but not terrible and the 3s, steals and blocks are the same.
Punting Strategy
- Balanced – Banchero will likely fit most builds with his well rounded game – he reminds me a lot (purely by numbers) of Scottie Barnes style production – they have very different games however.
Observations
- The 3 ball will be the key point of interest for Paolo. If he’s letting it fly in preseason it could be a sign of some extra value here.
76. Wendell Carter – ORL – C
SR Value (Rank): 0.308 (93)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.202 (73)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.091 (95)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.458 (87)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.315 (116)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 58 | 31 | 15.1 | 0.8 | 10.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.525 | 11.2 | 0.725 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.325 | 2.6 |
| 21-22 | 62 | 29.9 | 15.0 | 1.1 | 10.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.524 | 11.1 | 0.691 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.327 | 3.5 |
| 20-21 | 54 | 25.5 | 11.2 | 0.3 | 8.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.505 | 8.4 | 0.732 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.294 | 0.9 |
Season Outlook
WCJ represents an appealing hurt free big man in 22/23. The key here is a solid 15 and 10 big with good FG% and competent FT%. He is a far better real life defender than fantasy one, but his block rate did not match up well to his other rim protection advanced metrics which I think should sort itself out this year. This gives us a great big man right when boards and starting big men are about to dry up.
Punting Strategy
- Punt Blocks – .7 blocks last year simply isn’t enough from a C. I project some uptick but it’s far from guaranteed and as such he makes a great option in this build as a source of rebounds with a triple.
- Balanced – if you have sured up blocks, WCJ makes an excellent source of efficient rebounds and some decent scoring to boot.
Observations
- Playing as a solo big man usually sees bigs play more inside and less on the perimeter. Bamba will see more of the bench this season with Banchero in town and Banchero’s game will see a lot of use outside as a big man ball handler / oversized wing – forcing WCJ inside and away from 3P land.
77. Lauri Markkanen – UTA – SF/PF
SR Value (Rank): 0.335 (85)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.244 (61)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.063 (102)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.509 (72)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.321 (115)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 55 | 32 | 19.0 | 2.6 | 7.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.455 | 15.1 | 0.845 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.365 | 7.1 |
| 21-22 | 61 | 30.8 | 14.8 | 2.2 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.446 | 11.5 | 0.868 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.358 | 6.2 |
| 20-21 | 51 | 25.8 | 13.6 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.480 | 10.2 | 0.826 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.402 | 5.8 |
Season Outlook
Going from the 3rd option in Cleveland to the undisputed number 1 in Utah will be fantastic for Markkanens value. He has taken some time to grow into the NBA with his European style being dominated at times as a big man in the NBA. He appears to have found a home for himself as an oversized 3 who can undoubtedly space the floor as well as an NBA wing. The Jazz look as though they will position their roster around a 3 big man lineup that consists of Markkanen at the 3, Vanderbilt as the 4 and Kelly Olynyk at the 5. This lineup probably hurts all 3’s value as rebounds will be split between the 3.
Punting Strategy
- Punt FG – Lauri’s primary build will be Punt FG builds looking for rebounding support whilst doubling down on the strengths (Points, 3s, FT%) of the build.
- Punt Steals – If we consider Markkanen as a SF rather than a big, what we really have is an underwhelming defender who offers out of position rebounds and great scoring and FT% with low TOs, a useful combination in this build.
- Balanced – Markkanen offers a largely hurt free line, with some counting stat deficiencies offset with great scoring and rebounding for the draft position.
Observations
- Utah see Lauri as a key piece of the future in some capacity and should prioritise putting him in position to succeed. Other players may be offered roles as trade bait for the deadline but it appears Lauri is a keeper in Utah’s eyes as a floor spacing big / oversized wing.
78. Al Horford – BOS – PF/C
SR Value (Rank): 0.405 (70)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.323 (46)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.356 (43)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.531 (68)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.556 (68)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 65 | 30 | 10.5 | 1.4 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.481 | 8.3 | 0.825 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.365 | 3.8 |
| 21-22 | 69 | 29.1 | 10.2 | 1.3 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.468 | 8.2 | 0.842 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.336 | 3.8 |
| 20-21 | 28 | 27.9 | 14.2 | 2.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.450 | 12.8 | 0.818 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.368 | 5.4 |
Season Outlook
One of the Celtics leaders last year really showed his value as a floor-spacing big man who could still defend at an elite level. Boston is going to lean on Al early in the season for rim protection and we might see a jump in his blocks early in the year compared to when Rob Williams is back. Al’s game also morphs somewhat without Rob Williams next to him. In 18 games without him last year Al shot 1 less triple (but improved 3P% by 6%), increased his FG% by 11%, adding 1.5 ppg, .7 rebs, .7 assists as the lone big man. Important to note as this changes his line from last year significantly with Williams unavailable.
Punting Strategy
- Punt Points – It’s hard to recommend Horford to anyone not punting points – atleast not where I suggest drafting him. However in punt point builds we get a top 40 player who will be buoyed for the start of the year by the Rob Williams injury. Hard to ignore past R8 in punt points you may even want to reach into R7 to get him.
- Balanced – If he falls to the 100 mark in your drafts he is good to roll out in any build as his complete line can help you irrespective of punt build.
Observations
- I think Al overachieved in the shot blocking department last year so despite thinking he will see a lot of rim protection duties early in the year I’m not convinced it actually means more blocks than last year – he averaged 1.7 per 36 last year, the 2 seasons prior to that he averaged 1.2 and 1.1 per 36.
79. D’Angelo Russell – MIN – PG/SG
SR Value (Rank): 0.322 (88)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.090 (96)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.022 (116)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.471 (84)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.347 (104)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 60 | 32 | 17.9 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.418 | 14.4 | 0.800 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.360 | 7.8 |
| 21-22 | 65 | 32.0 | 18.1 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.411 | 15.0 | 0.825 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.340 | 8.0 |
| 20-21 | 42 | 28.5 | 19.0 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.431 | 15.5 | 0.765 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 0.387 | 7.4 |
Season Outlook
DLo is a very hard to grade player entering 22-23. I don’t know if he benefits or is hurt by the Gobert move. He certainly will be hurt by a shift towards Edwards as the primary option on offense which will mean less usage and assists for DLo. However there is still an attractive package here. Elite 3s, assists, a steal and 18 points is firmly top 80 value with upside to push top 60 if his shot falls particularly well (something that did not happen last year).
Punting Strategy
- Punt FG% – a very stereotypical player in this build. Russell is actually the sort of player who this build actually is built around. You can take big men and other rare punt FG categories such as blocks or rebounds early and get top 50 guard play from a pick around the 70/80s.
Observations
- A high dosage (>50%) of 3s on a fairly average 3P% drags Russell’s FG% down. However he has form in the past averaging a league average 38% on this volume meaning there’s definitely upside on the pick if his shot falls this season – the Wolves will certainly be looking at him and Edwards for spacing around their twin towers.
80. Franz Wagner – ORL – SG/SF
SR Value (Rank): 0.350 (80)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.230 (66)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.450 (33)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.359 (106)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.684 (55)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 75 | 34 | 18.6 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.465 | 15.1 | 0.865 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.355 | 4.7 |
| 21-22 | 79 | 30.7 | 15.2 | 1.2 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.468 | 12.3 | 0.863 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.354 | 3.4 |
| 20-21 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 |
Season Outlook
The guy I liken Wagner to in my mind is Gordon Hayward. Except he’s like 6”10 and so far in his career, durable. A top 50 season is well within reach for Wagner but he is one of those players that falls into the roto / 9 cat variety which my ranking system does not appreciate. There’s no telling where his game could go. The added length could add boards, blocks and steals. His ability to pass and distribute could come in handy in a team that is banged up at point guard. His 3-level scoring ability could make him a 20ppg 2.5 triples on great efficiency. As you can probably tell I am high on his real life potential. The projected line reflects pretty much none of the speculation above. Just a 3 minute per game increase which makes him a top 70 9-cat player and hovers him around the 100 mark in top 7. I have factored slight growth in across the board because I’m not sure how Banchero affects his line, there’s mouths to feed and theoretically Wagner falls 1 spot down the pecking order from last year as a result.
Punting Strategy
- Balanced – A true 9 cat player, Wagner fits every build.
Observations
- Shot distribution in Orlando will be the key thing to watch – is he number 2 or a blurred 3rd or 4th option rotating with WCJ and Cole Anthony for shots on any given night.
81. Kevin Porter – HOU – PG
SR Value (Rank): 0.317 (91)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.005 (124)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): -0.059 (149)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.465 (86)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.337 (114)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 60 | 34 | 18.4 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.428 | 15.1 | 0.715 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 0.365 | 8.0 |
| 21-22 | 61 | 31.3 | 15.6 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.415 | 13.3 | 0.642 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 0.375 | 6.8 |
| 20-21 | 26 | 32.1 | 16.6 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.425 | 14.1 | 0.734 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 0.311 | 6.2 |
Season Outlook
KPJ is a strange player. The numbers don’t add up to the actual value he offers in H2H formats. Even taking top 7 value he’s a back end of the 10th round player. But this is still lower than I think his actual value. In punt FT% builds, or even some punt FG/TO builds it’s perfectly reasonable to take him around the 80th mark and this still represents a high upside selection at that point. Let’s say he plays 35 a night (well within reason, he could play 36), he’s 69th in T7 value. Let’s say he improves as a playmaker to say 7.5 assists per game or from the FT line to 78%, he’ll be drafted top 60 next season, maybe top 50. Factor that into your thinking. The rankings and numbers and concept of z-score rankings is the mathematical approach to evaluating players but sometimes there’s just such small factors that could correct that make an extreme difference to a players value. The combination of role, categorical scarcity, fit in build makes Porter extremely valuable late here, he is more or less a slightly less efficient CJ McCollum.
Punting Strategy
- Punt FT – This is actually the build I like Porter in the most, it’s typically low in TOs so porter isn’t hurting us too badly, it’s great in FG% and blocks as well but needs points, 3s and assists which Porter offers the best combination of at this point of the draft.
- Punt FG & TO – In this build you will likely have taken and will be taking an abundance of FT% impact. Therefore we erase one of the key deficiencies porter brings to this build and can take advantage of his incredibly valuable points, 3s, assists combo.
Observations
- Like a lot of players minutes are the key here he was down at 31 last year but I am expecting a big jump as Houston attempts to see if a Sengun-Green-Porter-Parker is it’s core for the future.
82. Mikal Bridges – PHX – SG/SF
SR Value (Rank): 0.469 (57)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.345 (41)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.591 (20)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.547 (65)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.784 (42)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 75 | 35 | 14.6 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.529 | 10.7 | 0.840 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.375 | 4.4 |
| 21-22 | 82 | 34.8 | 14.2 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.534 | 10.5 | 0.834 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.369 | 3.8 |
| 20-21 | 72 | 32.6 | 13.5 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.542 | 9.3 | 0.840 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.425 | 4.4 |
Season Outlook
A little bit late for Bridges here at 82 there isn’t really a strong use case for taking him higher. He used to offer us elite steals which pushed him higher in the ranks. Now we get little in the way of strengths and just a well rounded line that doesn’t actually win you anything but chips in across the board. If you are playing Roto you take him in the 6th round or higher. In H2H let him slip into R8 or 9. Others likely take him ahead of you but that’s fine. Low turnovers with a very small amount of all 9 categories are what you are buying here which doesn’t really factor into many builds.
Punting Strategy
- Punt Points – the only real build that can extract value from him. Still there is so many more important players on the way that someone else likely sees his ranking last year and pounces before it’s worth drafting him.
Observations
- An overly negative description above probably is a little harsh. I just don’t see the appeal, he isn’t winning you a league.
- He’s an iron man – there’s legitimate top 20 totals upside here in rankings, which if he does fall is valuable.
83. Klay Thompson – GSW – SG/SF
SR Value (Rank): 0.361 (79)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.327 (45)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.137 (88)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.547 (66)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.348 (109)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 55 | 33 | 22.0 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.465 | 17.4 | 0.855 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.415 | 8.7 |
| 21-22 | 32 | 29.4 | 20.4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.429 | 18.0 | 0.902 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.385 | 9.3 |
| 20-21 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.0 |
Season Outlook
Klay played more like an inefficient 3 point chucker last year as the Warriors tried to get him comfortable with his shot coming into playoffs. He was averaging a career high 11.3 3PA per 36 in his 32 games last year and I expect this to come right down to a more respectable 9 to 10 (9 would be the second highest in his career). The shots will come down overall but we should expect both his 3s (.385) and 2s (.477) to fall at much better clip this season. The top 40 Klay of old is likely gone but this new variation offers great value as an efficient 3 point specialists in R7. The games played factor is going to be the largest factor here – Golden State have a league leading 15 back to backs this year and Warriors have been notorious at resting at least one of their big 3 on back to backs over the last few seasons. If Klay can stay healthy otherwise and can play 65 games, you’ve got yourself a steal.
Punting Strategy
- Punt FT – 3s, points and a trickle of assists on good FG%. A fantastic option, especially if you are well stocked in 3s.
- Punt Assists – a 3pt specialist to prop up punt Assist builds who need points and guard categories wherever possible.
Observations
- We won’t get any indication of his shot attempts in preseason. He will start and we should expect a fairly similar return to that of previous years
84. Jusuf Nurkic – POR – C
SR Value (Rank): 0.338 (84)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.144 (82)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): -0.104 (163)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.571 (60)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.210 (148)
| GP | MIN | PTS | 3S | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO | 3P% | 3PA | |
| PROJ | 50 | 29 | 14.8 | 0.3 | 10.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.501 | 11.1 | 0.700 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.265 | 1.0 |
| 21-22 | 56 | 28.2 | 15.0 | 0.3 | 11.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.535 | 10.7 | 0.690 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.268 | 1.0 |
| 20-21 | 37 | 23.8 | 11.5 | 0.3 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.514 | 9.0 | 0.619 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.400 | 0.8 |
Season Outlook
You could almost consider Nurkic a dead man walking at this point. I’m actually shocked he played 56 games last year. I literally googled to check if I had made a mistake with the numbers. He’s got tantalizing potential as a distributing big man who are coveted early in drafts (see Bam, Sab and Siakam). He just struggles to stay on the court. It’s hard to recommend him, even here at the end of R7. However if you don’t take him, you might find yourself without a big man at all as many will be gone by this point. If he can stay healthy last years numbers are very repeatable, if he sees and uptick in minutes (very possible given Portland’s lack of C depth) then we have a steal here.
Punting Strategy
- Balanced – almost a 9 category player Nurk has seen dips to his FT% in recent years that hurt his value somewhat. Still he has been working on a 3 ball and this typically translates to slightly better FT% as well giving us hope for improvement.
Observations
- The key here is blocks. Billups introduced an aggressive point of attack defense last year which sees all 5 players attack players on the perimeter. Meaning Nurkic isn’t waiting in the hole to protect the rim. I think there’s a healthier balance for Portland though (it wasn’t overly effective) and we might see a bit more 4 out 1 in in 22/23. If we don’t though, prepare for last years block numbers.
