1. Nikola Jokic
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo
3. James Harden
4. Luka Doncic
5. Joel Embiid
6. Stephen Curry
7. Kevin Durant
8. Lamelo Ball
9. Jayson Tatum
10. Damian Lillard
11. Karl-Anthony Towns
12. Trae Young
Rounds 2 & 3
Rounds 4 & 5
Rounds 6 & 7
Rounds 8 & 9
Late Round Picks

1. Nikola Jokic – DEN – PF/C

SR Value (Rank): 1.352 (1)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.927 (1)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 1.605 (1)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 1.472 (1)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 2.465 (1)

	GP	MIN	PTS	3S	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FGA	FT%	FTA	TO	3P%	3PA
PROJ	75	34	26.7	1.3	12.0	7.6	1.4	0.8	0.566	17.9	0.825	6.1	3.4	0.345	3.8
21-22	74	33.5	27.1	1.3	13.8	7.9	1.5	0.9	0.583	17.7	0.810	6.3	3.8	0.34	3.9
20-21	72	34.6	26.4	1.3	10.8	8.3	1.3	0.7	0.566	18.0	0.868	5.5	3.1	0.388	3.3

Season Outlook

Jokic is without question the number 1 player in fantasy basketball regardless of format. He will give you elite rebounds, elite point-guard-level assists from the centre position, above-average steals, a triple and flawless percentages to build around. His below-average blocks for the centre position are the key area to address therefore you can either roll the Joker into a punt block build or look to delay your punting strategy into rounds 2-3 based on who falls your way. His flexibility in build and dominance in 9-cat value sees him as my number 1 for 2022-23.

Looking back on the last couple of seasons I want to highlight his rebounds and his FG% last year. His rebounds spiked dramatically above his career average rebounding rate (14.8 per 36 compared with 11.6 the 3 years prior), I think we will see this regress back to the norm. The other major talking points here relate to percentages. His 2P% was 5% higher than it has been in his career typically. His 3P% spiked in 20-21 but he is a career 34.5% shooter from 3. Turnovers were the last point with these dramatically higher last year (4.1p36 compared to 3.5 on the prior 3 seasons). If we see these start to trend back to the norm, we arrive closer to my projections.

Jokic also benefits from build versatility. We can pair the Joker with almost anyone in the first couple of rounds and come away with a top 3-4 team worst case. Our main objective through 3 rounds – maximise our Points, Rebounds and Assists without compromising percentages. 3s and blocks are easier to find late via specialists, and turnovers decline as the draft progresses, steals are inconsistent year to year and are the most dangerous category to bank on from prior years.

Punting Strategy

Punt Blocks – the logical fit. Punt blocks isn’t my favourite build, it has a relatively low effect on the draft board compared to other punt strategies due to blocks being inconsistently distributed, but given Jokic is a 9-cat gem, you can just forget about blocks and focus on 3s and free throws without compromising FG% or Rebounds.
Punt Points – given his excellent base in percentages, out-of-position 3s and elite assists Jokic is the dream start for punt points. You can couple this with punt 3s to maximise the punt with plenty of elite pairing options.
Punt 3s – Jokic provides out-of-position 3s but it’s still one of his weakest categories. I wouldn’t recommend going down this route necessarily but there are a lot of players that typically fall in drafts that fit perfectly into this build with Jokic – namely Butler, Bam and Derozan.
Balanced – Jokic fits almost build, this is really important early in drafts because you don’t have to worry about who is there in round 2 or 3, simply take the best players available to you and decide then which direction you wish to go in.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Kawhi Leonard (Balanced) – The beauty of the Joker is that you can take falling players in the 2nd round. In most drafts Kawhi won’t fall this low. I recommend most people taking Kawhi early in round 3 due to him likely sitting back to backs and the injury risk BUT with the Joker being an iron man you can take an early risk if you feel like it.
Bradley Beal (Balanced / Punt Blocks) – Brad Beal is available at the turn of round 2 and 3 this year and rightfully so. He hasn’t been the healthiest and his supporting cast has improved significantly, stealing touches away from the Wizards star. The upside, he’s really efficient from the field and the line, giving you a huge anchor in FG% and FT% to build around.
Bam Adebayo (Punt Points / 3s / Balanced) – Another great compliment for the Joker late in round 2 is Bam Adebayo. His assists faltered last year but he’s still a ~20/10 big man who gets you back to league average in blocks. Pair with a scorer in round 3.

Alternatives: Anthony Davis (Balanced), Jimmy Butler (Punt 3s), Tyrese Haliburton (Punt Points)

Round 3:

Demar Derozan (Punt 3s) – A fantastic fit next to the Joker in punt 3s builds. Provides out-of-position FG% which compliments the uber efficient Jokic nicely.
Devin Booker (Balanced) – Booker is quite similar to Brad Beal and would present a great starting 3 giving you two hands on both FG% and FT% the rest of the way. This also gives you a huge base in Points and Assists which are the two hardest categories find late in drafts.
Domantas Sabonis (Balanced / Punt Blocks) – if you miss out on Bam and want to add a complimentary big man, or double down with Bam – an elite combination of points, rebounds and assists with above-average steals and league-average blocks (albeit you’re likely punting blocks in this scenario).

Alternatives: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Balanced), Darius Garland (Balanced), Pascal Siakam (Punt Blocks)

Optimistic Observations

Murrays will likely help Jokic reduce his turnovers and improve Denver overall. A better supporting cast may also lead to more assists for the Joker.
There is scope for increased 3-point attempts leading to more 3s or a more targeted shot selection from the Joker with improved spacing around him contributing to higher percentages.

Causes for Concern

Hard to pick at anything – some may point to his lack of injuries over the past few seasons and suggest his luck may run out. This is akin to betting on red at the roulette wheel because it’s trended black, its not based in anything other than superstition.
There has been reasonable turnover in Denver to the supporting cast from last year with MPJ, KCP, Bruce Brown and Jamal Murray set to be injected into big roles and this may have some effect on the Joker’s stat line.

2. Giannis Antetokounmpo – MIL – PF/C

SR Value (Rank): 1.087 (2)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.590 (5)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.938 (2)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 1.245 (2)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 1.859 (2)

	GP	MIN	PTS	3S	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FGA	FT%	FTA	TO	3P%	3PA
PROJ	68	33	30.0	1.1	11.5	5.9	1.1	1.3	0.569	18.3	0.725	11.0	3.4	0.305	3.7
21-22	67	32.9	29.9	1.1	11.6	5.8	1.1	1.4	0.553	18.6	0.722	11.4	3.3	0.29	3.6
20-21	61	33.0	28.1	1.1	11.0	5.9	1.2	1.2	0.569	18.0	0.685	9.5	3.4	0.303	3.6

Season Outlook

Giannis seems to be falling in some draft rankings but I’m not sure why. Sure he has/had a knee issue, but it cannot be that serious if he is playing in Europe for Greece. If you remove free throws from my calculations he still ranks second behind Jokic in top 7 value but it’s very close meaning taking the Greek Freak and punt free throws is equivalent to starting with Jokic minus the flexibility of build.

Looking back at last year we saw a dip in efficiency from Giannis which I expect him to bounce back from. I don’t think there’s too much in his game that evolving now and what we have seen in recent seasons is what we should continue to expect. His free throws have been improving over the last few years and I am projecting that to hold over from last year at this stage which sees his scoring hold despite slightly lower attempts.

With Giannis we are locked into punting free throws from the jump. This is okay though as he’s an excellent source of FG% and counting stats. We will look to maximise Points, Rebounds and Assists along with FG% early but put a slightly higher emphasis on defence given the synergies we have with punting free throws.

Punting Strategy

Punt FT – This is less of a choice and more of a reality with Giannis. We don’t need to go overboard. Focus on the deficiencies of the build (3s, points, assists and steals) rather than tripling down on punt ft options.
Punt 3s & FT – Take another of the deficiencies away by removing one of Giannis’s weaker points. Giannis’ 3 point shooting has some upside, and this takes that away but it’s a safe bet and unlocks some great options along the way.
Punt FT & TOs – This combination will allow us to grab the likes of Simmons and potentially Westbrook who others will likely pass on and lets us reap the rewards. I wouldn’t reach for either of these two players but this unique punt build should facilitate some steals through the middle rounds.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Rudy Gobert (Punt FT, Punt 3s) – Unlikely to slip this far Gobert has long been a stalwart of the Punt FT build. The Doncic owner will likely beat you to the punch here but if he falls to you it’s almost a no brainer.
Lebron James (Punt FT, Punt FT & TO) – Lebron fits the Punt FT build well. He gives you everything the build needs, elite points and 3s, some boards, PG assists and great FG%.
Anthony Edwards (Punt FT) – Ant is set to breakout this year and become a truly elite fantasy option. He will likely be the number 1 option in Minnesota and be a healthy source of scoring, 3s, assists and steals, a perfect compliment to Giannis in R2 before looking for a Punt FT big in round 3.

Alternatives: Bam Adebayo (Punt FT, Punt 3s), Brad Beal (Balanced)

Round 3:

Devin Booker (Balanced) – Let’s say you think Giannis can get his free throws to a more reasonable 75% and you are adamant you don’t want to punt FTs, you’ll need to grab an elite ft% option in round 2 and pair him with Booker in R3. Not the usual path, but a reliable one and excellent durability wise with at least 2 of your top 3 being above average in terms of expected games played.
Demar Derozan (Balanced, Punt 3s) – As per Booker above, Derozan can be a path back to competent FT% if this is a route you wish to take, other options are obvious so wanted to highlight this path. It leaves you behind the 8 ball in 3s but they are gettable late.
Robert Williams (Punt FT) – Time Lord finally arrived last year after flirting with elite per minute upside previously he has asserted himself as the 1B punt FT big man. A great pairing with Giannis in R3, leaves you light on scoring so you will want to compensate in rounds 4 and 5.

Alternatives: Jakob Poeltl (Punt FT), Clint Capela (Punt FT, Punt 3s), Domantas Sabonis (Punt FT, Punt 3s)

Optimistic Observations

There’s still room for growth in his 3 point shot although I’m not expecting or baking it in right now
As he expands his range it would be expected his FT% also trends up, It wouldn’t be outrageous to see him flirt with 75% some seasons opening up all kinds of new possibilities away from punt FT builds.

Causes for Concern

His defensive stats haven’t really bounced back to the once incredible numbers we used to see. I think this will continue as the Bucks have been riding the regular season in cruise mode the last couple of years as they focus primarily on the playoffs.

3. James Harden – PHI – PG/SG

SR Value (Rank): 0.916 (4)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.490 (8)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.812 (8)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 1.055 (5)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 1.553 (3)

	GP	MIN	PTS	3S	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FGA	FT%	FTA	TO	3P%	3PA
PROJ	65	36	22.2	2.4	7.3	10.5	1.2	0.6	0.435	14.5	0.865	8.3	3.8	0.350	7.0
21-22	65	37.2	22.0	2.3	7.7	10.3	1.3	0.6	0.410	15.3	0.877	8.2	4.4	0.33	6.9
20-21	44	36.6	24.6	2.8	7.9	10.8	1.2	0.8	0.466	16.7	0.861	7.3	4.0	0.362	7.6

Season Outlook

Harden is down on a lot of draft boards this season. His scoring is down from his Houston days, but he still gives you the best start possible for a FG% punt builds. He consistently delivers in the scarcest categories – Points, Assists and Rebounds. He also provides us with elite free throw impact, a splash of 3s, steals and blocks for good measure. Harden is the punt FG% equivalent of Giannis and an elite first round option. His shooting wasn’t great last year and I expect that to tick upwards a bit, but will likely be balanced by less minutes, the net result should be positive however.

I expect slightly higher three point attempts o a per minute basis as Maxey and Embiid create a little more of the offense this season. The biggest callouts here are his FG% – this was well down last year from 2p and 3p range, and I’m expecting some positive regression to the mean here, harden has consistently been a 53% shooter from 2 and 36% from 3 so at worst I expect a tick upwards here. I also expect his boards to decline as well as Philly dials in to win now mode. Whilst its close, I’m sold on Harden as my third selection this year.

Punting Strategy

Punt TO – With high assists, comes high turnovers – his typical ~2.5:1 A/TO ratio is average to above average so you aren’t forced into punting turnovers but I find it an easy choice when I chase assists.
Punt FG – If we don’t see Harden repeating his 20-21 FG% then Punt FG builds are a logical fit. I would typically advise against a double punt (higher risk if you end up being light in a third category) but it does kind of make sense when punting FG. However, if you focus on high assist to turnover ratio players and keep turnovers to a minimum you can come out above average in assists and below average in turnovers in a punt FG build.
Punt FG & TO – Whilst punting turnovers isn’t a must, Harden’s FG drain can be a must, 20-21 at 46.6% shooting seems like an outlier now and I expect him to return to a near 44% mark next year which lends to a Punt FG build. There is just so much synergy between low fg% and high turnovers it makes this the default Harden build.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Damien Lillard (Punt FG & TO) – An easy first round pick for me is dropping into the second round at the moment. Some of you will get Harden later in the first round and you should pair him with Dame if you get the opportunity.
Fred VanVleet (Punt FG & TO) – If you miss out on Dame, FVV offers first round value in the double punt and is another excellent option for Harden owners to double down on the strengths of this build.
Anthony Davis (Balanced, Punt FG) – If you’re looking for a slightly more balanced start, AD is offering excellent value in the second round as well. Closer to the season I expect this option won’t be there but if you’re drafting early you might pick up a bargain.

Alternatives: Anthony Edwards (Punt FG), Pascal Siakam (Punt FG)

Round 3:

Paul George (Punt FG, Punt FG & TO) – PG13 will likely sit back-to-backs so for this reason I don’t recommend touching until the third round however he offers round 1 per game upside in this build and that is hard to pass up here.
Darius Garland (Punt FG & TO) – If you’re still keen to add point guard numbers early, Darius Garland will be an excellent pick in the third. I see him going in round 2 in some drafts but this is way too early and completely caps his upside.
Cade Cunningham (Punt FG & TO) – currently a back end of round 3 option, I expect Cade to keep rising. I see his stat profile resembling Donovan Mitchells earlier seasons this year and so he’s a perfect fit in the Punt FG/TO build.

Alternatives: Donovan Mitchell (Punt FG)

Optimistic Observations

A full offseason with Embiid and the 76ers should allow Harden to become more comfortable in his role and I expect efficiency improvements.
There’s room for a larger offensive role for Harden here, if they see this as a path to winning more games Harden could take some shots away from Embiid this year and come closer to his former glory.

Causes for Concern

There’s a lot of depth on the 76ers next season and I expect them to lean on this depth a little more meaning there may be fewer minutes for Harden. He played 37 a night last year and I expect this to be closer to 36 this year, however it might be closer to 34 which would really hinder his value.
I said this last year but it remains true this year. Harden isn’t a great defender; his steal and blocks numbers may continue to decline as he adapts to playing real defence in pursuit of a ring.

4. Luka Doncic – DAL – PG/SG

SR Value (Rank): 0.864 (7)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.391 (16)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.639 (13)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 1.014 (7)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 1.426 (8)

	GP	MIN	PTS	3S	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FGA	FT%	FTA	TO	3P%	3PA
PROJ	65	36	30.8	3.4	9.3	9.5	1.1	0.5	0.468	22.5	0.755	8.5	4.6	0.355	9.5
21-22	65	35.4	28.4	3.1	9.1	8.7	1.2	0.6	0.457	21.6	0.744	7.5	4.5	0.35	8.8
20-21	66	34.3	27.7	2.9	8.0	8.6	1.0	0.5	0.479	20.5	0.730	7.1	4.3	0.350	8.3

Season Outlook

I am really high on Luka as most are in 22-23. He is a lot of peoples MVP favourite. It doesn’t quite translate to fantasy but there’s a good case in 22-23 to take Luka 3rd overall. This is where most people have been taking him in drafts so far. Sure he projects more like the 8th best player per my numbers but he also doesn’t come with all the question marks that Curry (Rest), KD (Injury Risk), Embiid (Injury Risk) or Harden (Role) come with this year. Doncic went deep in playoffs with a mediocre Dallas team devoid of secondary stars. Expect to see increased volume from Doncic this year as he carries Dallas into the top 6 in the stacked West. All reports of Luka working on his fitness should help him play slightly more minutes a night and may actually take him closer to 70 games played this year (although not something I am banking on).

Punting Strategy

Punt FT – The default strategy for Doncic. Yes his FT% isn’t the worst but compared to most other top 2 round picks its mediocre and a slight negative vs a strong positive. Doncic also gives us a best in class combination of points, 3s and assists.
Punt FT & TOs – This combination will allow us to grab the likes of Simmons and potentially Westbrook who others will likely pass on and lets us reap the rewards. I wouldn’t reach for either of these two players but this unique punt build should facilitate some steals through the middle rounds.
Balanced – You can definitely come back from Doncic’s FT%. His out of position rebounds can be used to build a strong team if you focus on efficiency with your next few picks – giving yourself flexibility in later rounds to punt.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Rudy Gobert (Punt FT) – If you take Doncic behind Giannis and Curry you will likley have the first pick of Punt FT bigmen. Gobert is the logicial start – A staple of the punt free throw build in round 2. Not too much to say, elite boards and blocks. You’ll be looking for scoring, assists and steals in rounds 3, 4 and 5.
Kyrie Irving (Balanced) – So we spoke about high efficiency being the key to coming back from Doncic’s FT% woes. Howabout a first round per game player who has 50-40-90 season under his belt? I would likely double down and go for Brad Beal or Devin Booker in R3 just to reinforce this efficiency.
Robert Williams (Punt FT, Balanced) – whilst I am not a believer in Rob Williams FT% holding from last year, he has such low volume its almost a net zero impact. Come back in rounds 3, 4 and 5 with strong FT% impact and scoring and you can take full advantage of Time Lord in a balanced build, or just focus on FG% and counting stats in a Punt FT.

Alternatives: Bam Adebayo (Punt FT, Balanced), Anthony Edwards (Punt FT), Lebron James (Punt FT)

Round 3:

Domantas Sabonis (Punt FT, Balanced) – Getting elite out of position assists is insanely useful in Punt FT. The build lends itself to dominate FG% and Boards so boosting guard stats early is vital. If you grabbed FT impact in round 2 (Irving or Butler) then Sabonis can make sense outside this punt, but you would need to focus on FT impact.
Ja Morant (Punt FT) – Easily the funnest option to pair with a punt FT big in round 2. Ja will enter the MVP race with Doncic this year and be an elite source of FG%, Points and Assists next to Doncic. Grab elite boards and blocks in Round 2 and hope Morant is there in R3.
Jarrett Allen (Punt FT) – A lesser spoken of name in the Punt FT build Allen broke out last year. He has had good FT% seasons before but seems to be struggling as he plays more minutes. Allen had a stellar year in 21-22 and looks primed to repeat next to Mobley as they form a formiddable twin towers in Cleveland. If you missed out on a punt FT big man in R2 but are still wanting, Allen is a great option alongside Poeltl in R3.

Alternatives: Devin Booker (Balanced), Brad Beal (Balanced), Jakob Poeltl (Punt FT)

Optimistic Observations

The MVP chase could bring many things. We could see him in full James Harden mode this season taking upwards of 10 3s, playing stat padding defensive roles and claiming additional rebounds.
More stamina should help him, I haven’t necessarily built in any per minute upside here just added an extra half a minute per game to his minutes. More stamina could also offer slight upticks in efficiency.

Causes for Concern

There aren’t really any. A deep playoff run paired with eurobasket worries me for his durability this year but with him working on his stamina in the offseason I am not too concerned.

5. Joel Embiid – PHI – PF/C

SR Value (Rank): 0.933 (3)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.742 (2)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.886 (5)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 1.173 (3)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 1.388 (9)

	GP	MIN	PTS	3S	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FGA	FT%	FTA	TO	3P%	3PA
PROJ	60	33	30.1	1.4	11.7	3.1	1.1	1.5	0.505	19.3	0.815	11.5	3.0	0.375	3.7
21-22	68	33.8	30.6	1.4	11.7	4.2	1.1	1.5	0.499	19.6	0.814	11.8	3.1	0.37	3.7
20-21	51	31.1	28.5	1.1	10.6	2.8	1.0	1.4	0.513	17.6	0.859	10.7	3.1	0.377	3.0

Season Outlook

Joel Embiid is in the conversation with Harden and Giannis for the number 2 player in fantasy but I just don’t trust him. I don’t trust him to play nearly 70 games a year consistently. Last year I mentioned he could be the number 1 player in fantasy and he was close. Embiid offers elite rebounds, decent assists, good defensive numbers, and his percentages are clean. I was sceptical about his 3-ball heading into last year but he has proven to be a very good shooter now in back to backs seasons. I think 33 minutes is the sweet spot for him and expect a slight decline from last years assist totals – he only averaged 3.6 in 35.5 minutes per game next to harden, modelling this down to 33 minutes sees a significant drop. Games played is the key thing here – if you buy his health take him 2nd or 3rd.

Punting Strategy

Punt TO – Turnovers are very high for a big man; he won’t compensate you with elite out of position assists like Jokic does meaning you might as well punt TO and go all in on assists with your other picks.
Punt Assists – For all of Embiid’s usage he isn’t a huge passer. With Philly adding James Harden last year I think we see slightly less ball dominance from Embiid. Embiid’s bad turnovers get negated in a punt assists (Little assists means little turnovers) and he contributes at an above average level to every other category. An elite starting anchor.
Balanced – Aside from turnovers, Embiid can fit almost any build. He gives you elite boards, out of position 3s, a sprinkle of assists, a steal and some blocks on good percentages. You can definitely delay your punt strategy to after round 3 with Embiid.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Kyrie Irving (Balanced) – Will provide elite scoring and assists on great percentages and A/TO ratio which limits the downside of Embiids turnovers. You’ll need to continue to focus on A/TO ratio in order for this to work targeting players who have a 2.5 A/TO.
Bam Adebayo (Balanced / Punt TO) – A super reliable big man who is going to double down on Embiids all-around game and give you an elite centre tandem is incredible here. Take a PG in round 3 and bank on an incredibly balanced opening 3 rounds offering you flexibility moving forward to run different builds.
Anthony Edwards (Balanced / Punt TO) – As I said above, Ant is set to breakout this and be the number 1 or 1b option in Minnesota. He offers a high upside in scoring, 3s, assists and steals which will compliment Embiid nicely. His FT is shaky so look for a high impact FT guy in R3.

Alternatives: Brad Beal (Balanced / Punt TO), Anthony Davis (Punt Assists),

Round 3:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Balanced / Punt TO) – Speaking of high impact FT guys – here is a guy who has massive potential if he can add 1.5-3% to his free throws made. He gets to the line a ton, and is the league leader in drives to the basket which should help his FTA trend up. Big fan of his around the middle of R3.
Ja Morant (Punt TO) – Morant is set for a huge year. JJJ on the sidelines, a deep playoff run fuelling growth to his game – the only downside is turnovers – which we are punting.
Chris Paul (Balanced) – A ticket back from punting turnovers is the point god. His 3.5 to 4+ A/TO is a god send for embiid owners, if you’ve gone multiple elite scorers in R1 and R2, consider CP3 just to bring things back to a balanced ledger and open more opportunities in R4, 5 and 6.

Alternatives: Devin Booker (Balanced / Punt TO), Domantas Sabonis (Balanced / Punt TO)

Optimistic Observations

I’m excited to see the efficiencies a full offseason with Harden brings. Big men are hard to find and Embiid can almost go toe to toe with Jokic on a per game basis in fantasy.
Philly is all in, and there’s something about teams that are gunning for a ring that translates to a level of commitment and drive that keeps players on the court and delivering. The east will be competitive and Philly will be jockeying for a top 3 seat deep into the season – a plus for fantasy owners.

Causes for Concern

Health, its always been his kryptonite and it still is – sure he played 68 games last year, but I just don’t buy it until I’ve seen it for at least one more year.
Harden could (in my opinion should) get a bigger role this year in terms of shots, they need to use his shooting and spacing which could be a slight plus for Embiids projected assist tally (per my numbers) but might hurt his overall value.

6. Stephen Curry – GSW – PG/SG

SR Value (Rank): 0.891 (5)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.551 (6)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.867 (7)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 1.036 (6)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 1.491 (6)

	GP	MIN	PTS	3S	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FGA	FT%	FTA	TO	3P%	3PA
PROJ	65	34	25.2	4.4	5.3	6.6	1.3	0.3	0.470	17.5	0.920	4.7	3.3	0.425	10.4
21-22	64	34.5	25.5	4.5	5.2	6.3	1.3	0.4	0.437	19.1	0.923	4.7	3.2	0.38	11.7
20-21	63	34.2	32.0	5.3	5.5	5.8	1.2	0.1	0.482	21.7	0.916	6.3	3.4	0.421	12.7

Season Outlook

There’s a great argument for Steph to be higher on this list. Purely based on the numbers he is the best way to start your Punt FT build, his elite 3s and scoring with decent assists and steals translate to perfectly compensate the weaknesses of that build. But there’s just the concerns that come with a deep Warriors team that will definitely give increased run to their young core this year, Jordan Poole has shown he is capable of being an explosive offensive weapon and Klay is now back to being 100% with an offseason to stay in shape. GSW just will not be as reliant on Steph as years gone by.

Looking back at last year, Steph had a very down year efficiency wise. When he plays next to Klay his game shifts, in his career he averages nearly 1 extra assist and is 3% more efficient from the field when playing with Klay but takes a whopping 3 less triples per game (his 2P shots are steady). Last year this was 7.5% more efficient (2% more efficient from 3) and 3PA fell by nearly 4 attempts per game (13 down to 9.4).

Expect a different Steph to the last couple of years, for Punt FT builds I simply prefer Luka and Giannis this year – which is why Steph falls behind both in the draft guide. You could definitely think differently and have him as high as your number 3 player this year. The other factor here is back to backs. The warriors started resting their big 3 on some back to backs last year, Klay sat them all coming off injury and I think all 3 will sit a minimum of 10 of the Warriors’ 15 back to backs this year.

Punting Strategy

Punt FT – The later in round 1 you can get Steph the better this build is. If others snatch Giannis and Doncic ahead of you, you can beat them to the best Punt FT options in round 2, but still have options after them in R3 as they likely won’t want to reach.
Punt Points – Last year I talked about what a wonderful build punt points is for Harden. I don’t think that this year as much but I really love it for Steph as an alternative. 3s are a lot easier to find nowadays late in drafts and throughout drafts. Almost everyone chips in 1-2 and many players more. Theres elite specialists late that can take you from last to first. But – they don’t do it efficiently which is what the Punt Points build needs to be effective. Punt Points requires elite FG% – which doesn’t go hand in hand with 3P shooting – unless you have Steph. Steph’s 3PM and FG% combination is akin to Chris Paul’s A/TO ratio.
Punt Blocks – Pretty straight forward, Stephs worst category – so take him, look for efficient high assist big men who don’t typically block the ball and you have a nice low risk punt strategy.
Balanced – a clean and efficient line short on only blocks. Easily fixed in the coming rounds to be completely flexible moving into the middle rounds. Maybe punt FT players slip and you get great bargains, maybe punt blocks do, maybe punt points do, keep your options open until later.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Rudy Gobert (Punt FT) – You should be in the box seat to draft Rudy if you take Steph behind Doncic and Giannis and despite the big man moving to Minnesota I am high on his contributions next year. Elite boards (albeit lower this year), blocks and FG impact. He will continue to be a round 1 player in Punt FT in 2022/23.
Tyrese Haliburton (Punt Points) – You may have to reach for him but Haliburton is an uber efficient, high A/TO PG that sets you up with the dream start for the Punt Points build in 2022/23. Chris Paul in R3 and we are cooking with gas.
Jimmy Butler (Punt Blocks) – An interesting alternative in round 2, offering elite steals, assists and free throw with above-average boards. Jimmy would set you up for an elite Punt Blocks build, Curry’s 3s make up for Jimmy’s deficiency in the category and so the synergy is elite. Add one of the many bigs available in round 3 and you are set for greatness.

Alternatives: Anthony Edwards (Balanced, Punt FT), Anthony Davis (Balanced, Punt FT), Robert Williams (Balanced, Punt FT)

Round 3:

Jakob Poeltl (Punt FT) – An alternative if you missed out on Rudy Gobert and Robert Williams, you pay around fair value here for him which isn’t ideal (in punting we want to get our fits at a discount) but he’s a great player and could have even more scope for improvement this year for a tanking Spurs.
Chris Paul (Punt Points) – As I mentioned above, Chris Paul is a delightful asset in this build. An elite source of A/TO ratio on superb percentages is exactly what is required in this build from our point guards and is exactly what we get here.
Devin Booker (Balanced, Punt Blocks) – An underrated player to pair with Curry in balanced builds is Devin Booker. These two complement each other nicely both being uber efficient players which sets you up with an incredible start in percentages, points and assists.

Alternatives: Jarrett Allen (Punt FT)

Optimistic Observations

Klay’s returned means increased efficiency – if his appetite for 3s stays high and we get last years attempts on better efficiency we might have the best version of Curry.

Causes for Concern

Warriors don’t need Curry to carry as much of the load with Klay back in the fold, Poole on the rise and talented youngsters ready to take on bigger roles
The lack of efficiency last year was a concern, no guarantee we see Klay’s return account for the whole drop off

7. Kevin Durant – BKN – SF/PF

SR Value (Rank): 0.886 (6)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.598 (4)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.800 (9)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 1.095 (4)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 1.356 (11)

	GP	MIN	PTS	3S	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FGA	FT%	FTA	TO	3P%	3PA
PROJ	60	34	27.0	2.1	7.1	5.8	0.8	1.1	0.524	17.9	0.890	6.8	3.3	0.400	5.2
21-22	55	37.2	29.9	2.1	7.4	6.4	0.9	0.9	0.518	20.3	0.910	7.4	3.5	0.38	5.5
20-21	35	33.1	26.9	2.4	7.1	5.6	0.7	1.3	0.537	17.2	0.882	6.8	3.4	0.450	5.4

Season Outlook

After sitting down with the Nets GM and Steve Nash, KD has elected to stay in Brooklyn this year which spells big things for his fantasy value. KD is a legitimate shot at top 3 status this year and if he gets a similar role and workload to last year we could be on to big things. We are now 3 years removed from the achilles injury and so I expect KD to play more games but far less minutes per night this year. They have to keep KD healthy to make noise come the business end of the season. 55 games with chaos all around you isn’t enough to build synergy for a championship run. Expect something closer to 34 minutes a night despite the possibility for more. The Nets will be better this year. There will be less disruption and I think they will be able to get on the same page and make something of this season.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – KD is so elite in all categories. Sure he is a high turnover player but so are all round 1 players.
Punt Steals – Although his steals trended up last year I think we see a bit of a regression to career average next year. He’s not that bad in the steals category but it’s a relative weakness compared to the rest of his categories. Pair him with a big man in round 2 and potentially a low steal scorer in R3.
Punt Points – look this seems crazy, I get that. But I think we see less minutes and therefore slightly less than 30 a night from KD this year. The real point to make here is the ~52% from the floor on 18-20 shots and ~90% from the line on 7 attempts is an elite anchor in both percentages to build around.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Damian Lillard (Punt Steals, Balanced) – Lillard isn’t an elite thief – he has had seasons on and just below 1 per game. This isn’t elite for a PG. The rest of his line however, compliments KD perfectly. Elite scoring, 3s and assists compliment KD’s all-around line. Especially the 3s as KD is relatively light on these compared to other R1 options.
Tyrese Haliburton (Punt Points) – The dream punt points option. An uber efficient, high A/TO PG that sets you up with the dream start for the Punt Points build in 2022/23. Look for CP3 in R3 and now we have a really strong build built around elite %s and
Anthony Davis (Balanced) – AD is offering excellent value in the second round. I expect this option won’t be there in competitive leagues but if you’re drafting early you might pick up a bargain on AD.

Alternatives: Jimmy Butler (Balanced), Robert Williams (Punt Points)

Round 3:

Devin Booker (Balanced, Punt Steals) – Devin Booker isn’t terrible in steals but is but like KD offers both elite FG% and FT%. This also gives you a huge base in Points and Assists which are the two hardest categories find late in drafts. Slot in a big in R2 and you’ve got a tremendous start to drafts.
Demar Derozan (Balanced, Punt Steals) – will leave you short in 3s but a fantastically efficient player that will give you a fantastic base in FG% and FT% along with points and assists – same story as Devin Booker above.
Chris Paul (Punt Points) – As I mentioned in Curry’s write up, Chris Paul is a delightful asset in this build. An elite source of A/TO ratio on superb percentages is exactly what is required in this build from our point guards and is exactly what we get here.

Alternatives: Evan Mobley (Balanced), Kris Middleton (Balanced)

Optimistic Observations

KD playing 37 mins last year was part out of necessity but also his commitment to winning and playing playoffs. He should have that same drive this year but he should hopefully stay healthier. I haven’t built the minutes nor the health into his ranking. If you do – he’s a top 3 option per game.

Causes for Concern

Health, its been over 3 years since KD maintained a healthy season. He should be approaching this season in good shape but he is also turns 34 as the season starts.

8. Lamelo Ball – CHA – PG/SG

SR Value (Rank): 0.855 (8)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.419 (14)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.745 (10)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.956 (8)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 1.508 (5)

	GP	MIN	PTS	3S	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FGA	FT%	FTA	TO	3P%	3PA
PROJ	68	35	22.1	3.1	7.0	8.0	1.8	0.4	0.424	18.0	0.825	4.6	3.3	0.375	8.3
21-22	75	32.3	20.1	2.9	6.7	7.6	1.6	0.4	0.429	16.7	0.872	3.2	3.3	0.39	7.5
20-21	51	28.8	15.7	1.8	5.9	6.1	1.6	0.4	0.436	13.2	0.758	3.2	2.8	0.352	5.1

Season Outlook

Lamelo was one of the guys I was really high on last year suggesting people take him late in the 2nd round. Steve Clifford is back in Charlotte, he’s traditionally been a slower paced, defensive focused coach. He has publically stated several times he doesn’t want to change the offense or the pace of the team but I think it’s safe to say they will, even marginally be a slower paced team in 2022/23. The upside is Melo should play more minutes this year. Borrego liked to bench Lamelo after mistakes last year resulting in a 32 minute per night role which should hopefully expand this year. Melo hit the 3 at a really high rate last year, I’m not completely sold on that clip this season, nor am I buying his FT% from 21-22.

Punting Strategy

Punt FG – Given I don’t buy his 3P% from last year on expanded volume I expect Lamelo to be a drag on your teams FG% this season. You can bundle this into a Punt FG, Punt TO double punt if you wish. The key here is his out of position rebounding. Big man categories (Rebounds and Blocks) will be the least natural things for us to come by in this build.
Balanced – It’s definitely possible to overcome Lamelo’s FG%. He doesn’t have the same volume that someone like Dame has and so pairing him with a couple of elite bigs in R2 and R3 can see you come back in FG%. It’s also possible Steve Clifford’s slower pace helps his efficiency and TO’s with added structure.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Anthony Davis (Punt FG, Balanced) – AD is a great option at the turn in almost all builds. He will help you in scoring whilst also giving you elite big man stats. If he can get his FT% back north of 78% he will return mid first round value for you.
Damian Lillard (Punt FG) – In for a big year, Lillard is well inside my top 12 but you can often get him early in the second round. A great fit next to Lamelo in Punt FG builds.
Fred VanVleet (Punt FG) – A near first round player in punt FG% FVV is a great option. FT%, 3s, assists and A/TO ratio: all the things we aim to be elite in FVV proviudes in abundance.

Alternatives: Kyrie Irving (Balanced), Pascal Siakam (Punt FG)

Round 3:

Cade Cunningham (Punt FG) – An underrated rebounder for his size, Cade is set for a huge season in Punt FG builds. Despite being a solid rebounder for a guard, you will need to focus big man stats, Cade makes a lot of sense if you grabbed Anthony Davis in round 2.
Evan Mobley (Punt FG, Balanced) – Evan might surprise you here, he is going in the 40s in most of the drafts I have been in to date but his potential is elite. I think he will continue to work on his outside game which might drive down his FG% but should be great for his overall value, especially in this build.
Nikola Vucevic (Punt FG, Balanced) – clean FT% is important in punt FG builds. We want to win FT% as close to as every week as possible so netting big man stats without compromising our FT% is vital. Vuc won’t give us a lot in the blocks department but will help rebounding a lot.

Alternatives: Donovan Mitchell (Punt FG), Terry Rozier (Punt FG), Myles Turner (Punt FG)

Optimistic Observations

Charlotte literally has no backup point guards. There’s no floor general or playmaker when Lamelo comes off the floor outside other starters (Rozier, Hayward). This could lead to even more minutes for Lamelo, he was benched randomly last year, I don’t see Clifford adopting this same approach on a team desperate for playmaking.
I’ve forecast efficiency declines in based on what I believe to be a return to regression for Lamelo but this isn’t a given. Last year might be the norm for him and so he has legitimate top 5 upside this year if the efficiency holds with additional minutes.

Causes for Concern

New coach brings a very different style. Clifford is quoted as saying he isn’t going to adjust the offense, just minor tweaks but his defensive style doesn’t lend itself to a run and gun offense.
Lamelo shot 75.8% in his rookie season from the line. If last season was an anomaly then Lamelo has some bust potential. He is the biggest boom or bust first rounder.

9. Jayson Tatum – BOS – SF/PF

SR Value (Rank): 0.750 (10)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.432 (13)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.891 (4)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.759 (16)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 1.482 (7)

	GP	MIN	PTS	3S	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FGA	FT%	FTA	TO	3P%	3PA
PROJ	72	36	27.1	3.2	7.8	4.0	1.1	0.6	0.454	20.5	0.855	6.3	2.6	0.375	8.5
21-22	76	35.9	26.9	3.0	8.0	4.4	1.0	0.6	0.453	20.6	0.853	6.2	2.9	0.35	8.6
20-21	64	35.8	26.4	2.9	7.4	4.3	1.2	0.5	0.459	20.6	0.868	5.3	2.7	0.386	7.6

Season Outlook

This might seem low for Tatum given he has gone much higher in all of my drafts to date. I am not particularly high on his game. He had a slightly down year from the 3 last year which I expect to come back, but his overall FG% leaves a lot to be desired. He has been an iron man to date which bodes well and he does give a nice all-around line. I’m just not sure where to from here with Tatum. His boards and assists were up last year, with Brogdon in the mix and an ultra deep lineup I’m actually seeing that trend down next year. He isn’t a defensive stud either and I don’t see him eclipsing a block per game or boosting his steals above 1.5 a game leaving improvements in scoring volume as the only logical route for Tatum to push higher in the rankings.

Punting Strategy

Punt FG – Tatum’s %s from the field leave a lot to be desired. Given we can use him as a forward we can push him higher in our line-up and fill up on smalls that benefit from the FG% punt. The difficulty here is you will be taking Tatum in around the Lamelo owner and potentially the Lillard owner too – giving you direct competition for the same players.
Balanced – Tatum’s field goal is not bad enough to tank it on its own. I certainly wouldn’t be reaching to try and punt FG and as such if a great option like Lillard or FVV doesn’t present itself in round 2, take a positive FG influencer or a big man and look to delay your punt strategy.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Dame Lillard (Punt FG) – I love going a point guard next to Tatum in round 2 (and 3 really). It’s essential that we get elite assists and points in a punt FG and the build lends itself well to getting these throughout the draft however Dame would give us a second elite option.
Fred VanVleet (Punt FG) – a great consolation prize if you miss out on Lillard in round 2. FVV offers elite steals which is useful considering Tatum isn’t an elite defensive presence.
Anthony Davis (Punt FG, Balanced) – A great middle ground option is Anthony Davis. Supplement our scoring, boards and blocks with the best big available in R2. This leaves us light in assists heading into round 3 where an elite point guard will be a must.

Alternatives: Bam Adebayo (Balanced), Kyrie Irving (Balanced), Pascal Siakam (Punt FG)

Round 3:

Cade Cunningham (Punt FG) – Set for a huge season Cade falls at just the right time in drafts to be picked late in the third round. Tatum’s rebounds enable this pick and I’d even encourage this pick if you have taken a small in R2.
Nikola Vucevic (Punt FG, Balanced) – big man stats with clean FT%. Throw in some assists and 1.5 3s and we have the perfect R3 big man.
Myles Turner (Punt FG) – freed from the awkward court share with Sabonis, Turner should feast being the primary paint protector. His FG may improve this year but he will still take a health diet of outside shots which combined with his league leading block potential make for a great pick towards the end of R3.

Alternatives: Terry Rozier (Punt FG), Evan Mobley (Punt FG), Donovan Mitchell (Punt FG)

Optimistic Observations

Tatum’s 2pt shot spiked last year, up to .525 from .500. I haven’t baked this in, but I have baked in a return to his elite 3 point shooting. If he can string both together he stands to gain a few rankings and become a truly elite R1 option as FG% really holds him back from top 5 status.

Causes for Concern

Tatum’s steals dropped off last year. I am expecting them to come back but if they don’t it really caps his upside and moves him back to around the top 15 conversation rather than top 5 where he is being taken in drafts.
The added depth Boston has brought in may see them look for more opportunities to rest Tatum. He played a near full slate of games in 21-22 and that will begin to trend down over the coming years as Boston look to continue going deep into the playoffs

10. Damian Lillard – POR – PG

SR Value (Rank): 0.829 (9)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.488 (9)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.896 (3)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.894 (10)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 1.526 (4)

	GP	MIN	PTS	3S	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FGA	FT%	FTA	TO	3P%	3PA
PROJ	68	36	27.5	3.9	4.2	7.5	1.0	0.3	0.446	19.5	0.900	7.0	2.8	0.385	10.0
21-22	29	36.4	24.0	3.2	4.1	7.3	0.6	0.4	0.402	19.0	0.878	6.2	2.9	0.32	9.8
20-21	67	35.8	28.8	4.1	4.2	7.5	0.9	0.3	0.451	19.9	0.928	7.2	3.0	0.391	10.5

Season Outlook

The Blazers rebuilt around Dame last year and with Nurkic returning, Jerami Grant added to the mix and the rising Simons in place, Portland is trying to win. The Blazers are high on Simons and he will offer spacing around Lillard, versatile defenders in Grant, Nas Little and Josh Hart offer the club the ability to play aggressive defense. This will help Lillard pick off loose passes and should see his steals elevate around 1 per game. He will also need to carry significant offensive load, something we have seen in the past but some may question. There’s no question, Blazers need an MVP-esque season from Lillard to compete in the West, he’s apparently feeling the best he has in years so they might just get it. Abdominal injuries do linger and there is risk associated with this pick hence why you’ll mostly find him available at the turn.

Punting Strategy

Punt FG – the default build with Lillard. Rebounds and blocks tend to be lacking in this build so you will want to focus on these in the middle rounds. There are a lot of compatible options for this build throughout making an easy build. Lillard has a reasonable assist to turnover ratio so you don’t need to double punt, however this build typically leads to high turnovers.
Punt Blocks – Opening a point guard, you haven’t invested anything into the block category. Come back for another guard in round 2 and target big men who don’t rely on blocks for value (eg. Sabonis, Vuc) and out of position boards in the middle rounds as we want to be at least league average there.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Fred VanVleet (Punt FG, Punt Blocks) – The best route to go with Lillard. Elite steals make up for Lillards average returns there whilst doubling down on his strengths in FT%, 3s, assists and A/TO ratio.
Anthony Davis (Punt FG, Balanced) – A good way to go if you’re looking to be more balanced with Lillard. Davis will help you in blocks whilst also giving you elite big man stats. If he can get his FT% back north of 78% he will return mid first round value for you.
Karl Anthony Towns (Punt FG, Balanced) – it’s unlikely KAT is here in R2, but an owner might be enamoured with Lebron, Haliburton or Davis. KAT gives us a healthy dose of big man stats we need without losing any advantage in 3s, FT% or points.

Alternatives: Trae Young (Punt FG), Paul George (Punt FG),

Round 3:

Domantas Sabonis (Punt Blocks) – If you went small in round 2 grabbing a suitable big in round 3 makes a lot of sense. Sab will provide out of position assists and great rebounds for a big man. He’s also a great source of FG%.
Cade Cunningham (Punt FG, Punt Blocks) – As we are picking a little deeper in round 3 I suspect Darius Garland will be off the board. You should take him if he’s there, but if he isn’t. Cade is set for a huge season, especially in this build. You’ll need to focus big man stats over the course of the draft, but there are a lot of mid to late round block and board specialists that will do the job.
Donovan Mitchell (Punt FG, Punt Blocks) – Another fantastic option in either punting build next to Lillard. Trade to Cleveland adds a bit of uncertainty but Mitchells elite scoring, FT%, 3s and steals make him a great fit in either build.

Alternatives: Darius Garland (Punt FG, Punt Blocks), Nikola Vucevic (Punt Blocks), Evan Mobley (Punt FG, Balanced), Kristaps Porzingis (Punt FG)

Optimistic Observations

Return of the ironman? It could be, I have tempered my expectations around 68 minutes per game, you could argue less but we could definitely see more after reports Lillard feels the best he has in years.
Lillard will need to play at a high level for Portland to go deep in the West. Its not out of the question to see an MVP season from Lillard this year as that is what might be required for Portland to even make the playoffs.

Causes for Concern

This is a completely new Portland roster. There may be teething issues as they learn to play together and this might hold Lillard back.

11. Trae Young – ATL – PG

SR Value (Rank): 0.712 (12)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.222 (28)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.592 (18)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.750 (19)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 1.350 (12)

	GP	MIN	PTS	3S	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FGA	FT%	FTA	TO	3P%	3PA
PROJ	68	35	27.4	3.2	3.9	8.8	1.0	0.1	0.439	20.4	0.885	7.0	3.7	0.365	8.8
21-22	76	34.9	28.4	3.1	3.7	9.7	0.9	0.1	0.461	20.3	0.904	7.3	4.0	0.38	8.0
20-21	63	33.7	25.3	2.2	3.9	9.4	0.8	0.2	0.438	17.6	0.886	8.7	4.1	0.343	6.3

Season Outlook

Trae Young is an interesting player coming into 2022-23. The addition of Dejounte Murray clouds his projection next season. He will undoubtedly spend more time off the ball next to Murray given Murray’s inability to shoot the 3 as well as Trae. But he is still the most gifted passer on this Hawks team so expect him to still be the primary playmaker, not Murray. As such I see his assists dropping somewhat and his 3PA rising slightly. Trae proved many a fantasy analyst wrong last year (including me, although I wouldn’t call myself an analyst), shooting career bests from 2, 3 and the free throw line. I see all 3 regressing somewhat to the mean this year despite the addition of Murray to create for him. Trae was averaging 34.5% on 3s coming into last year and so I see a regression back towards a 36.5% likely.

Overall, Trae has proven to be an elite fantasy option and despite some drop off from last years numbers, cements himself into the first-round conversation. Expect a slight uptick in Trae’s steals given the elite on ball defence that Murray brings, freeing Trae up to be more attacking in the passing lanes. With less assists should also come less turnovers but Young still doesn’t offer an appealing Assist to Turnover ratio, meaning those assists are not coming as efficiently as other players.

Punting Strategy

Punt FG – Trae’s most obvious fit is the Punt FG build. Can pair him with a variety of other good punt FG guards. Focus on big man categories in the early rounds. Trae’s turnovers and relatively weak A/TO ratio lend him to double punting turnovers as well. I really like Anthony Davis in R2 paired with Trae if you’re not looking to punt blocks.
Punt Blocks – Trae is particularly weak in blocks even for a guard. Doubling down on a guard in R2 and landing Sabonis or Vuc in R3 can offer a solid path forward for Trae in punt blocks. Rebuilding the FG% may prove challenging unless he can hit last years %s though.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Anthony Davis (Punt FG, Balanced) – I particuarly like Anthony Davis in round 2. Hopefully you are taking Trae at the end of R1 and therefore get the jump on the Tatum and Lamelo owners who may also be looking at this build. AD gives you a really strong base in blocks, great steals for a big man, some boards, good percentages. He’s a great option and compliments Trae really well in either Punt FG or Balanced builds if you’re looking to delay your punt decision.
Damian Lillard (Punt FG) – In for a big year, Lillard is well inside my top 12 but you can often get him early in the second round. An explosive scorer next to Trae Young and you have easily the best 1-2 punch in Punt FG or Punt Blocks (or both if you fancy a triple punt).
Fred Van Vleet (Punt FG) – FVV’s strength lies in his steals numbers. While Trae is an elite option in this build his steals leave a little to be desired. FVV makes up for this and still gives us everything we expect in this build, elite 3s, above average points, assists and free throw %.

Alternatives: Donovan Mitchell (Punt FG, Punt Blocks), Paul George (Punt FG, Punt Blocks)

Round 3:

Cade Cunningham (Punt FG, Punt Blocks) – Cade is set for a huge season, especially in these two builds. Cade makes most sense if you have taken a big man in R2. If you doubled up on guards – most likely look at some of the bigs here.
Pascal Siakam (Punt FG, Punt Blocks) – Another big man who makes a lot of sense in these builds. More so offering you wing stats from a big man position, Siakam will give you great steals, boards, out of position assists and great scoring.
Myles Turner (Punt FG) – Turner should feast being the primary paint protector for the Pacers this year. His FG may improve with him being closer to the basket now but will still have outside shots to support our 3s production, which combined with his league leading block potential make for a great pick towards the end of R3. Myles is the type of player than can almost win us blocks on his own.

Alternatives: Nikola Vucevic (Punt Blocks), Evan Mobley (Punt FG, Balanced), Kristaps Porzingis (Punt FG)

Optimistic Observations

Trae broke out last year and could look to build on last year. I have factored in some regression in his shooting numbers but Dejounte might actually provide an excellent secondary point of creation to keep Trae’s shooting numbers high meaning Trae could surpass my projections above.

Causes for Concern

Dejounte Murray in town is a huge concern. We just don’t know how they are going to compliment each other in terms of fantasy. I have opted to steer clear of Trae in most of my drafts to date as a result.

12. Karl-Anthony Towns – MIN – C

SR Value (Rank): 0.730 (11)
9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.448 (12)
9 Cat Totals (Rank): 0.880 (6)
Top 7 Cat Value (Rank): 0.778 (15)
Top 7 Cat Totals (Rank): 1.364 (10)

	GP	MIN	PTS	3S	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FGA	FT%	FTA	TO	3P%	3PA
PROJ	70	34	24.5	3.0	8.7	3.8	0.9	1.0	0.491	17.5	0.845	5.2	2.9	0.395	7.6
21-22	74	33.5	24.6	2.0	9.8	3.6	1.0	1.1	0.529	16.4	0.822	6.3	3.1	0.41	4.9
20-21	50	33.8	24.8	2.4	10.6	4.5	0.8	1.1	0.486	17.5	0.859	6.2	3.2	0.387	6.3

Season Outlook

The other elite fantasy option who has been stung by real world additions to his team is KAT. The addition of Gobert is going to really hurt Kat on the boards and in the blocks department – potentially even more than I have factored in. But it should help his durability, keeping him out of the paint and away from excessive contact inside. Typically when we see players play further away from the basket we see a decline in rebounds, steals, blocks, free throw attempts but also turnovers. Whilst Kat will still play some center for the Wolves it will be significantly less in 22-23.

On the positive side this should translate into additional 3 point attempts as Gobert and Ant collapse opposing defences into the paint leaving KAT wide open. It will also help Kat to stay on the floor more often – we could see Kat play 35 or 36 minutes a night as a 4 versus the barely above 33 he had been trending down towards over the past couple of injury riddled seasons. I think there is real upside here, a lot of people will be scared to touch him and some of you may even get lucky in R2 with an elite guard.

Punting Strategy

Punt FG – I think it will make a ton of sense to take Kat and immediately pair him with one of the Punt FG players I have just mentioned such as Dame or pair him with AD at the start of R2. You can then focus on middle round players who benefit from this punt strategy the most such as Cade Cunningham, Terry Rozier, Brandon Ingram, Marcus Smart, Jalen Green etc. without worrying about big man stats as much.
Punt Points – Given KAT’s excellent percentages (even if he spends more time outside) and efficient 9-Cat game you could easily angle Haliburton or AD into a punt points build – both offer versatility in that you could easily take Brad Beal who is falling in drafts this year and/or Zach Lavine or Middleton to find a way back into scoring categories.
Balanced – You will have the pick of excellent early R2 options for a balanced start to your draft board – take the player you are most comfortable with in R2 and delay your punt til R3/4 or beyond.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Anthony Davis (Punt Points, Punt FG, Balanced) – I have suggested AD for nearly every first rounder here. There is a lot of uncertainty in the middle to late first round and AD just makes such an excellent suggestion next to any of the players you take in Round 1. AD will fit perfectly in any direction you wish to take KAT.
Kyrie Irving (Balanced) – Like AD, I have suggested Kyrie for a lot of R1 players. He fits so well next to most of the first round and can help you delay your punt strategy. Yes there is risk with Kyrie, but he is in a contract year and wants to stay in Brooklyn. This equates to a Kyrie who is dialed in, doesn’t miss games and shows Brooklyn why they should re-sign him.
Tyrese Haliburton (Punt Points, Balanced) – Another excellent starting piece, Tyrese will have the keys to to Indiana this season. I don’t expect his scoring to be on par with the other players in this range but his 9 category game, absurd efficiency and elite assists and steals make him a fantastic pairing with KAT.

Alternatives: Damian Lillard (Punt FG, Balanced), Trae Young (Punt FG)

Round 3:

Chris Paul (Punt Points) – Interestingly Chris Paul is rarely making it the end of R3 in most of my drafts to date. Last year he almost always would. The senitment around CP3 has changed this year however if he is on the board he makes the perfect pairing with KAT and Haliburton or AD.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Balanced) – The thing holding SGA back is the Thunder not being competitive and then shutting him down. Depending on when you had your playoffs SGA was either a league winner (in early playoffs) or a league killer (later playoffs) for you. I like him a lot end of round 3. There is genuine high R2 upside here and if OKC can be just marginally more competitive then you’re getting great value.
Cade Cunningham (Punt FG) – the dream late R3 pick for punt FG builds. Cade looks extremely promising as a hyper athletic point guard for the Pistons. He gives us great boards for a small too which is excellent for this build.

Alternatives: Demar DeRozan (Balanced), Zach Lavine (Balanced), Donovan Mitchell (Punt FG)

Optimistic Observations

KAT has long been a top 5 9-cat per game star. He was once an ironman, not missing more than a couple of games before injuries finally hit. He played 74 games again last year and so there’s hope he can have another near full season of games. Such a feat would make him a top 5 total value lock.

Causes for Concern

There is a lot of speculation that KAT’s role will really shift this year. Ant will pick up more usage and the ball will be in KATs hands less. Combine this with Gobert moving KAT further away from the rim and it’s not looking great for KAT’s role. I have only baked this in to some degree – I usually prefer smaller changes in the direction of what I anticipate happening rather than to the end of the spectrum so there is definitely room for this to be a lot worse than I have forecast.