16. Fred VanVleet

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.371 (18)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.860 (17)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
19.91	3.24	4.25	7.00	1.60	0.35	0.395	17.00	0.885	3.65	1.85

Season Outlook

FVV is going to be one on many people list this year. He has been slipping to the third in a quite few of the drafts I have seen and that may be because you are pigeon holed into punting FG% when drafting him. Still if you took James Harden or Dame in round 1, I would not hesitate to double up on another guard with FVV. A top 10 asset in punt FG or Punt blocks last year he is an excellent H2H asset and will be even better this season with the departure of Kyle Lowry. I don’t think he going to suddenly chuck up 20 shots per game as an alpha of this Raptors squad but he will capture some of the usage Lowry leaves behind.

Punting Strategy

Punt FG% – the obvious path to go with FVV – paired with Harden or Lillard this is a formidable start.

Punt Blocks – like most guards, if you haven’t invested much into the blocks category then you can just continue to do so. Look for Sabonis in round 3.

Key Observations

No Lowry will be huge for FVV – I may have gone light on his scoring so if you draft him, there is upside from this spot.
The only reason he is behind Irving in these rankings is his lack of flexibility. If Kyries vax situation doesn’t become clearer I would definitely take FVV.

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17. Clint Capela

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.265 (24)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.939 (11)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
15.91	0.00	14.00	1.00	0.75	1.90	0.625	11.00	0.575	3.75	1.40

Season Outlook

Clint Capela and the next name in these rankings, Rudy Gobert are both staples of the Punt FT build. Capela is the slightly higher scoring and rebounding of the two, with slightly lower shot-blocking potential. Both serve the same purpose though, shore up elite boards, blocks and fg% whilst kissing your free throw percentage goodbye. You can get Capela later in drafts, he is definitely the better value pick of the two. If going for a punt FT build you are probably targeting Zion for his scoring in round 2 and then Gobert or Capella in round 3. Someone might beat you to Zion, and to be honest, I am totally fine with that as Zion gives us no defence and is really only a fit with Giannis (Who gives strong Steals and Swats). If going for Curry, I’d definitely prefer Gobert or Capella.

Punting Strategy

Punt FT – Lock up Boards, Blocks and FG% while tanking your free throws. Simple. Not too much else to say, this is one of the most traditional punt builds out there.

Double Punt Points/Assists & FT% – This isn’t so much a conscious double punt but a byproduct of going Curry into Capella and Gobert. Sometimes it is just too difficult to come back in points or assists, which is fine.

Key Observations

Do the Hawks run collins at the 5 just a little bit more? It would likely cut into Capela’s minutes just a tiny bit and not have a huge effect overall but something to watch for.

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18. Rudy Gobert

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.224 (28)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.882 (14)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
14.03	0.00	12.75	1.50	0.70	2.25	0.680	8.00	0.630	5.00	1.70

Season Outlook

Interchangeable with Clint Capela in punt free throw builds. He is an incredible option in round 2 or 3 in the punt FT% build where he is perennially top 10. A better shot blocker than Capela who can almost match his rebounding. If going for a punt FT build you are probably targeting Zion for his scoring in round 2 and then Gobert or Capella in round 3. Someone might beat you to Zion, and to be honest, I am totally fine with that as Zion gives us no defence and is really only a fit with Giannis (Who gives strong Steals and Swats). If going for Curry, I’d definitely prefer Gobert or Capella.

Punting Strategy

Punt FT – Lock up Boards, Blocks and FG% while tanking your free throws. Simple. Not too much else to say, this is one of the most traditional punt builds out there.

Key Observations

Coming off a deep Olympic run Utah may hold back on a few of his minutes early in the season but otherwise, Gobert is set to come as advertised with no competition for minutes or changes to his role.

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19. Bam Adebayo

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.351 (20)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.823 (18)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
19.06	0.00	10.15	4.72	1.23	1.18	0.575	12.99	0.750	5.50	2.55

Season Outlook

With Lowry a key offseason acquisition for the Heat it will likely mean less low post creativity from Bam. A slight decline in overall usage will likely affect his assists more than his scoring as Lowry’s penetration, point guard creativity and spacing should actually open up better scoring opportunities for Adebayo in 21-22. I think his net value should stay about the same albeit a tad lower due to the decline in assists. I also think there’s upside in his defensive numbers, his blocks were down per minute last year and could legitimately get close to 1.3+ in both steals and blocks. Those are Giannis’ numbers.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – a great option in almost all builds, Bam is a great choice when picking late in the 2nd round. He does it all, has no floors in his game for a big (yes he doesn’t hit 3s but that isn’t something you expect from bigs). His point of difference is out of position assists, last year he was also excellent from the free throw line, I am expecting some regression there but he won’t tank you in that category.

Punt 3s – the only category not in Adebayo’s line. If you take a low assist option in round 1 it can make sense to punt it if going Bam in round 2.

Key Observations

Look out for his role in the offense. I suspect his assists could take more of a hit than Butlers. Overall I think he will be just as good as last year, Lowry should help the Heat’s spacing and his presence could help Adebayo’s fg% a touch.

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20. Michael Porter Jr.

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0..430 (14)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.796 (20)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
23.86	3.31	7.20	1.35	0.75	0.85	0.520	17.65	0.805	2.75	1.25

Season Outlook

To say I am high on this kid is an understatement. He gives you a KD-lite line minus the assists, and his FT% has upside from this number. He was down last year just under 80% but I expect that number to climb as MPJ evolves into a superstar. It’s not really a case of if he will be top 10 one day, it’s more of a case of when, with Jamal Murray out, it may be this year. There’s upside in his scoring, 3s and free throw impact (both attempts and % could rise) and with great fg% and low turnovers he is a gem.

Punting Strategy

Punt Assists or Double Punt Assists & Steals – I am a huge advocate for the Punt Assists build. I think it is the best strategy for beginners as it’s quite easy to just not take traditional point guards, avoid fg and to killers and bang you’re good to go. MPJ is elite in this build. You can end up double punting steals a lot and without any improvement to his line MPJ is a lock to be top 5 in that scenario.

Key Observations

Watch out for his FG attempts, if we see a huge spike upwards towards 20 as a true no.2 option (potentially no.1 in terms of just fg & ft attempts) the break out is on
He has come out against COVID vax. Denver doesn’t currently have any restrictions on players who aren’t vaccinated but it’s something to watch if that rule changes in Colorado.

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21. Lamelo Ball

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.361 (19)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.758 (22)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
19.76	2.37	7.00	7.50	1.75	0.40	0.445	16.00	0.785	4.00	2.96

Season Outlook

Another kid where the sky-is-the-limit. Top 10-15 is well within reach this season. I am projecting modest improvements to both %s as well as his TO rate (such is the norm with sophomores). He will definitely play more minutes this year (29mpg last year) so it isn’t even a case of if his counting stats go up, it’s a lock that they will, based on playing time alone. He is an elite do it all guard, who isn’t leant too far towards any build meaning he is a great selection in a variety of builds, some for his out of position rebounds, some for his elite assists and steals.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – A complete player. Out of position rebounds, elite guard stats, scope for efficiency improvement but he is a stud and could prove to be a steal regardless of your build in 21-22.

Punt blocks – Only stat missing from his game, .4 blocks for a point guard is probably slightly above average but if you don’t want to invest a lot of draft capital into that category Lamelo can really help you in rebounds which can be a point of pain in this build.

Punt FT – I am projecting Lamelo’s FT% to climb this year after 76% showing last year. It may actually drop though, and he’s such a good source of assists, steals and 3s – the things punt FT needs to be most mindful of – that he makes so much sense here after you take a Punt FT big in round 2.

Key Observations

Watch Lamelo’s minutes, if they move a lot closer to 36 it’s breakout time.
FT% is another key point of interest – watch his attempts per minute and % in preseason (if your league drafts close to opening night) to get a feel for what we might see this season.

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22. Nikola Vucevic

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.428 (15)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.752 (30)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
21.18	2.04	11.50	3.00	0.95	0.95	0.481	18.00	0.805	2.26	1.79

Season Outlook

Vucevic is the first of a string of big men that open 12 team third rounds in my rankings. Similar to Kyrie, Vucevic is a guy that fits any build, doesn’t hurt you literally anywhere and makes his impact in 9-Cat is far greater than his h2h impact when trying to punt. That’s not to say he’s bad in h2h, or you can’t load him into punting strategies. He is a go-to pick in punt blocks as his ~1 block per game isn’t great as far as centres go. But as you can tell, it’s far from punt worthy either. His FG% is low for a big, but at 48% I’m not trying to punt the category based on his impact alone. I like him as a fit with Lillard a lot. In that scenario, we are already leaning towards punting fg and blocks so nullifying Vuc’s two slightly sub-par categories. However, we can just softly punt those categories (meaning not avoid them, but just don’t invest heavy capital into them). There’s a lot of speculation that with Derozan and Ball in town Vuc’s assists will dry up, I don’t expect this to be the case, I think it’s more likely Derozan and Ball actually suffer the greatest impact in terms of Assists.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – Vuc is an all-around contributor. He gives us literally all 9 categories. If you aren’t looking to punt anything, or you’ve managed to secure a very balanced round 1 selection such as Jokic, KD or KAT for example you can take Vuc and further delay your punt strategy.

Punt Blocks – Vuc isn’t a bad shot blocker. Nearly 1 game is more than serviceable. Taking him in a punt block build is not because you need to, but rather because his value isn’t tied down in providing blocks. He is still really valuable when not considering blocks as a category so if you have taken a point guard in round 1, have your eyes on punting blocks or FG%, then you can rest at ease you aren’t wasting the pick as Vuc’s value is not heavily impacted by either of these categories.

Punt FG% – Like I have said above in punt blocks, this isn’t a must head down the path but rather a scenario where Vuc makes sense. He doesn’t gain a lot of his value from FG%, so if you are punting it, you are getting the relative value of drafting Vuc as you’re not punting a category that is significant to his overall value.

Key Observations

The new big 4 will have to adjust to lower usage roles. Of the 4 I expect Vuc to be the least effective as the inside-outside big man presence a lot of NBA teams are looking for in a Modern NBA Center.

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23. Trae Young

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.144 (47)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.761 (21)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
25.53	2.76	4.00	9.50	0.90	0.15	0.428	18.00	0.865	8.50	4.25

Season Outlook

The perception of Trae Young far outweighs his true numerical value. People rave over his league-leading calibre assists without factoring in that he barely scrapes above a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio (2.25). This means he isn’t providing you with those assists as efficiently as say Chris Paul provides you his assists (>3:1 A/TO). He also doesn’t steal the ball at even an average level, nor does he block shots or shoot the ball well-meaning he has quite a few sub-par categories. In fantasy, we have knocked guys like Spencer Dinwiddie and Reggie Jackson for not providing anything other than scoring and assists – empty glamour stat guys. Trae Young is the top-end version of them. That isn’t to say he isn’t valuable. If you went Lillard in R1 for example, I wouldn’t hesitate to grab Trae in round 2 to just lock away assisted 3s and score in a punt FG% or FG% & Blocks double punt.

Punting Strategy

Punt FG% – my default option when grabbing Trae, can pair him with other poor fg% guys like Devonte’ Graham, Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Ricky Rubio while focusing on grabbing good fit big men like Porzingis or Myles Turner in the middle rounds.

Double Punt FG% & TOs – Turnovers can be a problem with Trae as well, keeping an efficient ratio is difficult so punting it can make sense, grab plenty of assists to break even on the two categories whilst being dominant in most other cats. The priority here is to get enough boards and blocks as these will be the weakest categories.

Double Punt FG% & Blocks – As I said above, boards and blocks can be difficult to acquire in this build. If someone like Sabonis is there in round 3 after going back to back point guards, that will be a very nice pickup that pushes you in this direction. Be very vigilant of your turnovers to avoid a triple punt. If Chris Paul slips to round 4, he is an excellent pickup.

Punt Blocks – If you think you can get Sabonis, and also some other big men that fall your way not named Porzingis, you may have managed to revive your fg% enough to consider it just a soft punt or average. In this scenario, don’t worry too much about shot-blocking but take big men who can help the other big men stats – FG% and Rebounds. Think Wendell Carter Jr., Sabonis, Ivica Zubac as well as out of position sources of boards – Dejounte Murray, Finney-Smith and Josh Hart.

Key Observations

Trae could rise from this spot if his usage rises back to 19-20 levels. He is an alpha and he may look to take over more games this year as his MVP window starts to open, in that scenario we may see scoring move closer to 30 and his value move closer to first-round despite the holes in his game.

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24. Zion Williamson

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.078 (56)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.755 (23)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
29.80	0.60	7.50	4.00	1.00	0.70	0.591	19.00	0.675	10.00	2.74

Season Outlook

Zion is a beast. He is a great fit in Punt FT builds (the only build you can consider him in) due to his huge negative FT impact. FT builds often struggle with points and have very low turnovers which fits perfectly with Zion as he can make us competitive in scoring and his extra turnovers don’t hurt us too much. Zion has the potential to improve his defensive numbers in the NBA especially if he plays more small-ball centre moving forward, I don’t see too many other changes to his game coming in 21-22, He may begin to start taking more 3s over the coming seasons which will be a positive addition to his game. Durability is a concern, Zion had surgery on a fracture in his foot in the offseason. It’s not expected to run over into the preseason but its something to note given his injury history/concerns.

Punting Strategy

Punt FT: The default position. You have likely taken Giannis, Curry or Doncic in round 1 and are looking to supplement the rest of the categories to remain as balanced as possible. Get to work raising your 3s, assists and scoring in round 3, if you went Curry into Zion a punt FT big is a great direction to look in round 3, otherwise a good fitting point guard like Lamelo or Fox is my go-to.

Double Punt 3s & FT: A direction you can head with Zion is the Giannis – Zion – Simmons route (taking Simmons in round 5). However, in this build, we will look to be a little more conservative with our turnovers, preserving a respectable A/TO ratio whilst not being concerned about poor volume 3s (something that punt FT bigs and picks typically struggle to provide). Assists are the key here; you will need to draft some players that don’t seem like good fits but provide a good A/TO ratio to offset Giannis and Zion’s poor ratio.

Double Punt FT & TOs: Giannis Zion and Simmons offer great synergy (doubling down on elite fg impact, poor turnovers and poor FT%). You can take this trio in a different direction to punt 3s by punting turnovers instead. This trifecta (Zion round 2, Simmons round 4 or 5) will leave you elite in most things, requiring just 1 punt ft big man to boost your blocks and boards. You can pretty much just draft 3s, assists and scoring for the rest of your roster without worrying about FG% due to the impact these 3 players provide, FT% or Turnovers.

Key Observations

Watch how much small ball centre Zion is playing in the preseason, I’m not completely sold on it being a viable strategy for the Pelicans but if they do run with it it could be big for Zion’s overall value (Boards, Steals & Blocks all tend to rise for forwards when moving to centre)
Also keep your eye on his 3 point shot, if it looks much improved this will make him an even better asset in punt FT builds.
The last consideration is also that Zion’s frame is not durable. There were huge draft concerns about his walk/running mechanics, his weight versus his frame and so far those concerns have proven true – he had surgery in the offseason to repair a fracture in his foot and has struggled with injuries so far in his career.

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25. Deandre Ayton

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.197 (33)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.611 (28)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
14.93	0.11	11.00	1.50	0.70	1.35	0.606	10.50	0.760	2.75	1.55

Season Outlook

So the numbers suggest this ranking is a touch high, there are a handful of players who rank higher. But, none of those players has top 15 upside like Deandre Ayton. Last year was the floor. That is the absolute worst-case scenario for this season. He was completely peeled back out of the offence while the Suns figured out the most optimal way to play and spread the ball around looking to create the right spacing and spread to maximise Booker’s talents next to CP3. By the time the Playoffs rolled around, Ayton was firing on all cylinders getting to the right spots and dominating the inside. We aren’t going to see 19-20 Ayton who closes in on 20 points per game. I don’t actually see too much growth in his line, I see no reason why boards can’t trend back towards 11, steals and blocks also improving slightly with increased playing time that I expect to see this year. So why am I ranking him 25th then? Well, this is the floor, we could see more than the 31 mins I anticipate, we could see slightly more shots at his ultra-efficient clip, we could see his free throw continue to improve and close in on .800 – where it wouldn’t just be a relatively smaller negative than other bigs but in fact a positive.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – A no weakness kind of big man, he is ultra-efficient, blocks well over a shot per game, doesn’t hurt you from the free-throw line and provides great boards.

Punt 3s – Like other players who don’t contribute to a category, Ayton is viable in a punt 3s because he gains literally no value from it. He also provides big man scoring potential which can be a weakness of the build.

Key Observations

Be sure to watch out in preseason what his role is on the offense, I don’t expect it to change too much from last year albeit a slight uptick in minutes but preseason will confirm or cast doubt over that hypothesis.

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26. Domantas Sabonis

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.181 (37)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.616 (27)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
20.49	0.96	11.75	6.25	1.00	0.50	0.524	15.00	0.725	5.25	3.25

Season Outlook

Sabonis is a great asset in punt blocks. He should be on the board when you’re coming back at the turn in Jokic builds and there is just so much synergy there. He averaged 1.2 steals last year but he’s never cracked 1 per 36 before in his career and last year he played 36 mins to average 1.2. This steal rate just isn’t something I believe in, the minutes could very well decline slightly, especially once TJ Warren (who will play some 4, sliding more Myles Turner at the 5) is back. Apart from the steals the rest of his line is pretty reliable and I don’t see any reason why it differs much from last year. He is an elite provider of points, rebounds and assists for a big man. Is deceivingly a significant drag on free throws due to the volume he takes and you should be careful pairing him with other free throw drag players.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – A great fit for balanced builds, if you have already secured some blocks early in the draft, you can take Sabonis and secure some valuable big man stats with his point of difference assists to boot.

Punt Blocks – As I said above – Sabonis is a great asset in punt blocks. He provides out of position assists, a triple, a steal on good fg% and with elite rebounds – a significant factor in punt blocks due to its usual difficulty in the category.

Key Observations

The new coaching staff and regime in Indiana may have a different take on the Turner – Sabonis rotation whilst also changing the structure and flow of the offence. I am not expecting much to change, Sabonis is a highly effective big man facilitator and there’s plenty of outside scoring on this team to compliment it – still, something to watch for.

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27. Richaun Holmes

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.250 (25)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.698 (25)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
14.21	0.00	8.50	1.42	0.88	1.58	0.635	9.17	0.790	3.33	1.25

Season Outlook

The Mansion is one of those hidden gem fantasy options. He’s not spectacular in any counting stats and his numbers don’t pop off the page at you. But he is a bloody good fantasy option due to his elite fg%, above-average free throw % for a big and great defensive contribution. He is going to hurt your points total when taking him the third or even early fourth and so be careful, I have him ranked 27 as that is around where I think he will rank by season end (numbers say 25) but that doesn’t mean you should necessarily draft him there unless punting points. He has upside here as I haven’t baked in too much of a minute increase – but the Kings have to realise they signed the big man to a starters deal for a reason – he is their best player, don’t go trotting out Alex Len for unnecessary amounts time, put your workhorse in and let him produce.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – If you have enough points, 3s and assists on your team through 2-3 rounds, Rich Holmes makes an excellent investment to provide efficient big man stats to continue your well-rounded approach.

Punt Points – if you are someone who is also likely to take a falling Chris Paul you should probably just opt to go all-in on punt points build. Holmes is an elite balanced contributor across the board so this makes for a fantastic building block in punt points.

Punt Assists – If Rich falls to you in the fourths in a punt assists build you are absolutely loving it. This isn’t a scenario where: “you took The Mansion so now you have to punt assists”, it’s more of a “he has no value tied up in this category so will gain value if I draft him in this build” scenario.

Key Observations

Playing time. PT. That’s the key. He is a big man who I could see playing 36 a night if Thibs were his coach and being just an incredible asset. Let’s hope Sacramento sees that too as he is one of those players where the real-life production and value matches the fantasy impact.

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28. Kristaps Porzingis

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.314 (21)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.691 (26)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
21.48	2.63	9.00	1.80	0.65	1.65	0.437	17.00	0.801	5.00	1.40

Season Outlook

Everyone is losing their minds over how KP disappeared in last years playoff series at the big moments. Okay, sure he was a bit of a letdown. He was also just 18 months removed from a torn ACL with some complications through 20-21 which meant he was a bit of a headache for both fantasy teams and the real-life Mavericks. So let’s just establish this, he is made of glass, he is a risky selection. What he also is, is a prototypical 20 and near 10 big man with elite triple and block production. His FG% trended dramatically up last year which isn’t something I expect to continue as it was based around his 2P% increasing quite dramatically from a career average around 47.5% suddenly shooting up to 53.5%. Proceed with caution, but if he’s there in the mid-30s in your draft don’t hesitate due to the top 20 upside.

Punting Strategy

Punt FG – self-explanatory, Punt FG builds need boards and blocks, you can get them with KP while not needing to worry about his sub-par fg%.

Punt Assists – KP isn’t bad at assists as far as it relates to big men, but he isn’t particularly good either and so in a category which is so difficult to compete in, unless you have taken two guards and are taking KP as your third selection he makes more sense in Punt Assists.

Double Punt Assist & Steals – Similar to punt assists, he also doesn’t offset steals so you can roll him into the double punt where he is a top 10 asset in a build that often needs scoring and threes help due to its big man bias.

Key Observations

Let’s see how Jason Kidd utilises the unicorn. He could look for more outside looks next to a traditional big man, which I think we will see a little more of this year compared to last, or we could see him run KP at the 5 exclusively and utilise smaller 4s such as Finney Smith. I suspect a bit of both based on matchups but we definitely prefer more time at the 5 as fantasy owners.

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29. Lebron James

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.144 (45)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.714 (24)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
25.36	2.28	7.50	6.75	1.10	0.60	0.506	18.50	0.700	6.25	3.55

Season Outlook

Lebron is an interesting one this year. Westbrook is in LA, AD will be healthy and most importantly, Lebron is 36 turning 37 within the season. I’m not saying he is going to fall off a cliff, quite the opposite, I think what you see is very much what you will get with Lebron. But that statement includes the minor injuries that have hampered him in recent years. We also have the Westbrook rebound effect – not that he stat pads them (he does) – but that it is actually far more effective in transition for him to grab free rebounds and sprint up court, taking advantage of his speed in transition to catch opposing teams off-guard less able to set themselves defensively. This sets us up for a significant drop off in his value overall and pushes him out of the top 25 in my rankings, Injuries, Age and Westbrook is a trifecta of why even if his numbers are accurate why I don’t want him on my team this season at the price he is advertised (second round).

Punting Strategy

Punt FT – Really the only way to go with Lebron. He can work in other double punt varieties of Punt FT, especially TOs, but I don’t think it’s necessarily where his strength lies. He brings us 3s, assists, boards, a steal and elite fg impact with elite scoring. Ticks all the boxes for this build and justifies his second-round status if this is the build you’re going for.

Key Observations

Watch for age, injuries and the Westbrook effect in preseason on a per-minute basis.

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30. Chris Paul

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.276 (22)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.580 (30)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
16.14	1.33	4.25	8.25	1.45	0.25	0.502	12.50	0.900	2.50	2.25

Season Outlook

At this stage, CP3 is pretty much what he is. An ultra efficient point guard, both in terms of scoring (FG% & FT%) and facilitating (Assist to TO ratio), CP3 is slept on every year. I see him falling into the fourth round this year consistently in my own and other people’s drafts which is just crazy to me. His line speaks for itself, I can understand why some builds would want to stay away from the low scoring but if you’ve come into round 3 with at least 50ppg between your first two picks and want to be competitive in assists without tanking TOs, do not let CP3 get past you.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – A complete player who doesn’t hurt you anywhere. If you have grabbed enough points, 3s and some blocks through rounds 1 and 2 you should be fine to take CP3 in R3 before looking for plus scoring in the next couple of rounds to compensate.

Punt Points – the default build with CP3 if you’re looking to maxemise his impact. Typically big men gain from this build which means natural synergy with blocks. What it typically lacks is assists, steals and 3s (which are easier to get late) making CP3 a dream for his high A/TO ratio. Butler, CP3 and Holmes are all very gettable and make for an incredible punt points build. If you grab a complete player in round 1, regardless of their scoring ability, if they provide plus-percentages then they go well in this build.

Punt Blocks – Another viable direction. Punt blocks has high synergy with points based on it being typically dominated by non PF/Cs. Like I have written before, you don’t have to go down this path because you are taking CP3 but it might be a natural punt based on who you have selected.

Key Observations

At some point CP3s minutes will need to trend down, I don’t see that happening this year, one year out from helping to lead the Suns to the Finals – still be vigilant.
Injuries have been a concern in the past so be mindful of that when drafting him, if you went for other injury prone options you may just want to look for a more durable 3rd rounder
CP3s steals have been trending down, I am not convinced that is something that will necessarily continue and we could see a bounce back year from him which would boost him well above this rank.

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31. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.263 (26)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.527 (39)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
24.76	2.06	5.56	5.75	1.05	0.67	0.483	17.87	0.810	6.71	2.97

Season Outlook

SGA projects to be a fantastic player yet again in 21-22. I’ve really been in two minds about this projection, it could actually make me look stupid by years end as I think there is a real chance his FGA, 3PTA and assists are all much higher than I have projected. Overall I think it’s important to recognise that OKC has brought in, and thinks highly of Josh Giddey who is a versatile guard and excellent fit next to SGA. Giddey is an all around type of guard who could interchange with SGA in facilitator and off guard duties. Depending on the split between the two players this could have more or less of an effect on SGA. This is probably one of my least confident projections and if you are high on SGA do not hesitate as I wouldn’t be that surprised to see him in the top 20 players by season end.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – SGA is a great fit in almost any build as he doesn’t have a weak category. He averages above league average in blocks and is only ever so slightly below standard league average in rebounds (6rpg). With that said, feel free to take SGA whatever build you are running as he will not hurt it.

Key Observations

Note the statlines in preseason. SGA recently called himself the ‘Black Steve Nash’ which is high praise and exciting for fantasy owners if assists and stats are going to be anything like Steve Nash’s once were.

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32. Donovan Mitchell

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.177 (39)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.567 (32)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
26.71	3.38	4.43	5.23	0.98	0.28	0.435	21.00	0.850	5.96	2.77

Season Outlook

Spida is a man I am looking long and hard at in punt fg and punt blocks builds this year. There is much upside in this statline as the core around him ages he will begin to shoulder an increased load. A key figure in his statline is steals. He averaged 1.5 across his first two seasons in the league but has dropped off to the 1 a game mark. I feel like there is scope for this to trend back upwards and even retracement back to 1.2 per game would have a big impact on his overall value. A top 20 player in favourable builds, don’t think twice about drafting him if you are looking for major scoring punch, 3s, solid boards and assists and a steal.

Punting Strategy

Punt FG% – As I said above, I love Spida in punt fg%. He is a top 20 player in this build and gives you all the stats you’re looking to dominate in this build, getting him in the mid to late 20s is a steal if this is the build you’re opting for. Look to come grab boards and blocks (eg. Porzingis) in the next couple of rounds if you haven’t already secured some.

Punt Blocks – Low block numbers, elite guard stats and few weaknesses. He is a top 20 player in this build and if you’ve managed to snag Vuc or Sabonis on the way to your round 3 selection and DMitch is looking at you, take him.

Key Observations

There’s room for minutes to go up and improve his numbers across the board. His 2P% tends to fluctuate but if he can stabilise it around year 1 and year 3 numbers (~50%) as opposed to years 2 and 4 (~47%). His 3 point percentage also jumped up to 38.5% last year from 36.5% the 3 years prior, so that could further confirm his status as a punt FG player.
Steals. I haven’t put it in his projected stat line but there’s potential he can positively regress back towards earlier levels (~1.5spg)

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33. Zach Lavine

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.091 (49)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.478 (44)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
24.76	3.07	4.86	4.57	1.07	0.49	0.455	19.00	0.825	5.35	3.31

Season Outlook

I um’d and uh’d about this guy a lot this year. A lot of experts who I trust think he’s an end of the 2nd round guy. Honestly, compared to them I have very little experience in this space. But, I am able to read the numbers and I do have a reasonably reliable blueprint to project statlines (previous years per 36, player in similar circumstances / minutes / supporting cast and then calculating with reasonable assumptions). After doing that process, which I do for every single player Lavine just did not project well. Chicago have added Vuc, Derozan and Lonzo, sure Coby White is hurt so he’s one less player to worry about but all of the guys I just mentioned have a positive level of contribution to any given basketball team when they have the ball in hand. Lonzo creates shots for players as a primary distributor, Derozan has spent the last few years in San Antonio rebuilding his game around the low post and back to the basket distribution, Vuc has had a similar role in Orlando. So to think the ball is going to be in Lavine’s hands as often this year as last year is not a reliable assumption. His usage will go down, that means I think he will take at least one less shot per game on average and there will be fewer opportunities for him to generate assists as these aforementioned players are also going to be having plays ran for them where they can create the offense. The numbers have this guy a lot lower, but there’s another part of me that thinks, this is the alpha, he will get his and they’ll distribute the remaining touches to the other guys, for that reason I am putting him well above where his numbers suggest he should be due to the upside.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – A pretty balanced player with nearly 5 boards, nearly 5 assists, a steal, plenty of scoring and triples Lavine fits many builds.

Punt Blocks – like most guards, he doesn’t have significant value tied up in blocks, not a path you need to head with Lavine but a path which will see him increase in ranking.

Key Observations

The next part of the reason why his numbers have him so low is he shot a ridiculous 57.1% from 2 last year. Elite guards are usually just above 50. So 57% is absurd and just will not be repeated. Forecasting him back where his career average has been in recent years drops his FG% dramatically – a key reason why he is more of a late third, early fourth round player for mine.
His steals were down last year, as an explosive player who should be on a team that’s more locked in defensively this year I think there’s a chance this number returns to the just-over-1-per-game we are used to.

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34. De’Aaron Fox

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.119 (49)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.564 (34)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
25.23	1.87	3.75	7.25	1.55	0.50	0.479	19.00	0.720	7.19	3.00

Season Outlook

Swipa is a fantastic option in the third round for Punt FT builds. It may seem a bit early, at the time of writing Fox is a 5th round option in Yahoo rankings but I am yet to participate in a draft where he goes there. There isn’t a lot I see changing in his stat line from last year, I think he further establishes himself as the number one option for the Kings. One area I hope to see some improvement is from 3. He shot 32% from 3 this past year, up from 29.2% the year before, I hope to see some continued progression here as he takes and makes more. Overall, you take Fox for the scoring, assists and steals on great FG% in builds where his FT% doesn’t hurt too much.

Punting Strategy

Punt FT: The default position you take Fox. He likely becomes a factor far too late if you are considering him in any other build around where his 9-cat value kicks in (mid to late 40s). He is a great source of points, assists and steals, 3 things we need in Punt FT builds.

Punt FT/TO: A great fit in the Giannis/Zion/Simmons build of past years. I think you could get all 4 across the first 5 rounds with one elite shooter in the mix for a fantastic first 5 rounds.

Key Observations

Assess his 3 point shot in preseason, if we see great improvements, or even hear about great improvements he jumps significantly up the board.

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35. Jaylen Brown

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.226 (29)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.752 (24)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
24.92	2.84	6.32	3.55	1.26	0.49	0.484	19.44	0.745	4.38	2.53

Season Outlook

Boston’s no.2 had a great season last year. He is an excellent wing options with plenty of upside in assists and potential growth in the free throw department. There’s not a lot of spectacular statistical anomalies or facts I can write about Brown as I think what we saw last year is pretty much what we will see this year. His FT% jumped up to ~76% last year and I expect that to balance out a bit with previous years averages but watch as he might actually take a step towards being a neutral FT impact guy – something that would be huge for his value. He is slipping into the fourth round in competitive league drafts which is something I cannot really understand as he finished in the top 40 last year and will only be better this year without a primary ball-dominant point guard in town.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – this one largely comes down to whether you buy into last years 76% from the line or not. If you do buy it, and you think he will continue to refine it, potentially even on more attempts, then he is a fantastic value selection for balanced builds – you will still want to ensure your squad has stocked up on high volume FT impact guys just in case.

Punt FT – The default build for him over the last couple of seasons Brown offers excellent 3s and steals with above average fg% from his position which are things we like in this build. I think Brown has particular value in Punt FT builds where we have shored up blocks as he will put us over in steals as well.

Key Observations

Watch his usage as a primary ball-handler for the Celtics in pre season. There is a lot of talk about Tatum working on his playmaking but I suspect that is more out of the post. If Smart wins the starting role I think there will be a lot of Celtics possessions where Brown initiates the offense and that could be big for his assist numbers – pushing them up towards 5 a game.

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36. John Collins

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.205 (31)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.564 (34)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
19.76	1.52	7.50	1.50	0.60	1.15	0.551	14.00	0.800	3.50	1.50

Season Outlook

If we get it into our minds that last year was the floor for John Collins with a slow start and a lot of off the court distraction and conflict then 21-22 looks good for Collins. He has a very fantasy friendly game, doesn’t hurt you anywhere and has all the tools to be an elite 20 and 10 big man with multiple triples and 1.5 blocks. One caveat, that’s when he plays center. When Collins plays PF, especially next to a gravitational presence like Clint Capela, his big man numbers all go down. As such we get the AD-at-PF-lite scenario where his boards don’t look great, his blocks go down, he’s less involved with the pick and roll and his numbers are far less tasty. Still – I like him this season as a guy who should be better than last year for this deep Hawks team and should offer tremendous value late in the third or early in the fourth. I’ve even seen him going at around 50 in some drafts which makes very little sense to me.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – an obvious fit in all teams looking to boost big man stats without hurting their ft%, he’s a great pickup in balanced builds.

Punt assists – I like the price on him here because of the teams that will be drafting in this range, late first round pick sides are definitely pushed towards punt assist builds and so can get real value in the bigs offered around this spot.

Double Punt Assists & Steals – Similar to a lot of the big men in this range Collins is a non-contributor in assists and steals so makes a high upside pick who gains a lot of value in this build here.

Key Observations

Watch for how many minutes he gets as the Center, the more the better so if they look to play faster and in transition with some more lineups this year Collins could really benefit

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