37. Jaren Jackson Jr.

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.267 (23)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.530 (36)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
18.53	2.59	6.50	1.25	1.00	1.75	0.460	14.00	0.765	4.00	1.45

Season Outlook

Similar to John Collins I see a lot of scenarios where JJJ is falling deep into the fourth round. I kind of understand it, he was hurt for a long stretch last year and so people are cautious. But his statline is literally mouth-watering and I don’t think you should let him slip past you if you are selecting towards the front end of the fourth round. He’s a stretch big who provides in both defensive categories and will play more center this year which will boost his rebound numbers. I may actually be under-projecting them as after he came back from injury last year he was averaging 6 per night in 24 mins. So we could see 7.5 even this year if he plays 30 mins a night. He will be a fun player to own, %s could really go a variety of directions but I think he won’t kill you in either category and has a lot of upside from the line.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – If you have another big providing elite fg% paired with a wing or two who give you above average FG% we can stomach the 46% shooting from a center in balanced builds – definitely not a show stopper.

Punt FG – Like Porzingis, JJJ is someone I am really targeting early 4th round in punt fg builds. Porzingis will probably go higher and if you miss out JJJ is a great consolation prize.

Key Observations

• Watch for how much Center time JJJ gets if any, it would be massive for his boards, blocks and steals as Centers are much more in the thick of things defensively.

38. OG Anunoby

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.226 (28)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.398 (24)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
17.60	2.61	5.86	2.46	1.56	0.71	0.483	13.69	0.745	2.36	1.98

Season Outlook

Here is a very interesting player. One for me who has top 20 written all over him at the start of the season. Siakam will miss the first 6-8 weeks of the season at least and Anunoby could soak up a huge amount of that usage. He could average close to 20ppg, his boards could be up around 6.5 or close to 7 and his steals could be close to two a game. He could also just not do any of those things. But a player whom I love the upside on. I was frothing at the mouth quite literally when Yahoo had him just past 60 in their rankings earlier and I was able to take him there in one of my leagues which I consider to be incredible value. Most likely he will be a mid to late fourth round player in a lot of leagues this year and I think on the balance of things that still represents good value when compared to most of the players in that range who likely have top 40 and maybe top 30 upside but none represent the combination of per-minute defensive accumulation, newly opened up potential for increased offensive usage and a head coach who likes to play starters big minutes. This could be fun.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – Anunoby has two weak categories, Assists and FT%. The FT% is on such low volume that it more or less doesn’t really matter. The assists are also not super awful for a forward and if you are well stocked there I wouldn’t be too concerned.

Punt Assists – Anunoby is a great fit here. If ignoring assists he is a near top 20 asset and thats without factoring in a lot of upside in his line from my projections. A great player to target if you have scoring under control but need steals in your punt assists to avoid a double punt.

Key Observations

• I haven’t gone overboard with my potential increases to Anunoby’s line. He very well could average 20ppg, 7 boards, 2 steals, 1 blocks and 3 triples this year and I wouldn’t be that surprised.

39. Devin Booker

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.156 (41)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.530 (37)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
27.16	2.28	4.20	4.50	0.80	0.25	0.478	20.00	0.885	6.50	3.00

Season Outlook

A player most fantasy analysts love to hate. I don’t love him either, he’s constantly overdrafted and overrated. However I think the front end of round 4 represents a sweet spot for the ultra efficient scorer. He gets a lot of hype for being this amazing outside shooter but he’s surprisingly mediocre shooting ~36% from deep for as long as you would dare look back. He doesn’t provide defense and since CP3 arrived in Phoenix his assists have dried up. None of those things will change this year. BUT. He’s a 27ppg scorer that shoots nearly 48% from the field and is a top of the line free throw impact contributor. He’s Bradley Beal-lite two rounds later. He won’t help you in steals as much as Bradley can, but the duo make a great pairing in Punt Steals builds. Booker’s point of difference is for teams who need scoring and are well stocked defensively that would still like a boost in both %s.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – If you have come away with steals in rounds 1 and 2 (maybe 3 if you’re lucky though I doubt he realistically gets to round 4) then you can really take advantage of Booker’s ultra efficient scoring with a trickle of other stats thrown in.

Punt Steals – Probably the best build to make use of Devin Booker’s line – he is an ultra efficient scorer who still chips in valuable assists for a SG. So the only thing missing from his line really from your expectations from elite SGs is steals. Punt them.

Key Observations

• I keep thinking one of these years Booker is going to take a jump in 3PT%. He will take more and hit more one of these years and catapult himself back up into top 25 consideration with 3+ triples a game without hurting his fg% too much. I’m not suggesting that will be this year but hey it could be.

40. Khris Middleton

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.157 (40)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.491 (43)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
20.32	2.30	6.00	5.00	1.11	0.15	0.473	15.75	0.885	3.52	2.58

Season Outlook

Here’s a player with one of the most fantasy friendly games out there. Elite from the field, elite from the line. Hits some triples, rebounds well, dishes it, doesn’t turn it over a lot. Only thing he doesn’t do is block shots. We aren’t going to see much of a change from previous years and there were no statistical anomalies in his line last year so I will keep this write up short.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – a fantastic fit for most builds especially if you have shored up blocks in earlier rounds.

Punt Blocks – Only category he doesn’t provide. He is actually significantly unders for a forward in blocks though so there’s a lot of reason to consider punting it if you pick up Middleton and haven’t yet invested heavily in swats.

Key Observations

• There’s nothing particular I am looking for in preseason with Middleton, he’s consistently put up a very similar line over the past few years and should continue to do so.

41. Julius Randle

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.150 (43)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.513 (41)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
24.14	2.06	10.59	5.14	0.93	0.44	0.469	18.50	0.765	6.17	3.29

Season Outlook

Randle was someone I initially had much lower than this but after reconsidering his outlook and reconsidering his stats a lot will remain the same for him in 21-22. Two notable things I think will change though are his 3pt% – this will not be 41.1% this year. I also think with the addition of Evan Fournier and Kemba Walker his assists will drop. One redeeming factor for all of this is his FG%. He shot a 5-year low 2pt% last year which I don’t think holds, yes when bigs take more 3s they also tend to take some long twos which lowers their FG% but I don’t think this is fully explanatory of this decline and expect it to positively regress back to ~50%. I think Randle’s 3 point attempts are likely to increase this year which should help to offset my projected decline in % made. Lastly, Randle shot 81% from the free throw line last year and was previously a ~73% guy, I have a hard time trusting this number and have baked some regression in. Yahoo typically sees Randle going in the late second early third round and if you are someone who believes in his FT% then this is a fine range to pick Randle.

Punting Strategy

Punt FG – As with other outside shooting big men the FG% impact just isn’t there for Randle. This means he makes a great fit for Punt FG% builds as his value does not lie in FG impact.

Punt TOs – Randle is a high TO player, this can make it difficult to roll him out in balanced builds who will already be looking to balance assists vs turnovers from their guards. High turnovers makes this a really tough task and so I don’t really advise going Randle in a balanced build but rather in a punt turnovers build where we go all in on assists and attempt to dominate that category every week making turnovers a non issue.

Key Observations

• Watch his role in the offense with the Knicks new additions and also keep your eyes peeled on his free throws. If he makes a large portion in the preseason on high attempts he will be far more palatable in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

42. Brandon Ingram

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.219 (31)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.464 (49)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
24.42	2.50	5.50	4.50	0.85	0.65	0.466	18.50	0.850	5.50	2.50

Season Outlook

Here’s a player who I almost never seem to get on my team despite really liking him as a fantasy option. He is a really well balanced fantasy player. He doesn’t do a ton defensively but still averaged 1.5 defensive contributions which is around about average for draftable fantasy players. An elite scorer, Ingrams point of difference will likely be for teams towards the top of the draft who are looking to keep things clean and roto players doing the same. He doesn’t stand to change too much as a fantasy player but he is one injury to Zion (who btw is recovering from foot surgery) away from being a top 20 player.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – I don’t really think there are many punting directions you’re forced down or even attracted to with Ingram. You could throw him in punt steals or blocks without losing anything but you also could just roll him into a balanced build without falling behind in either.

Key Observations

• Keep an eye on Zion’s foot. If he is set to miss time or be on a minutes cap we should see a nice juicy uptick in Ingram’s stats across the board.

43. Dejounte Murray

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.239 (27)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.527 (38)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
18.84	1.58	7.50	6.00	1.60	0.25	0.449	17.00	0.795	2.50	2.10

Season Outlook

I’m extremely optimistic about a few Spurs this year. In particular Dejounte Murray. At 43 this isn’t a huge stretch from where he is going in drafts but I think he’s still going too low. He offers fantastic out of position rebounds, will soak up a portion of Derozan’s usage and he rectified previous ft% issues over the last two seasons. He also offers up elite steals, production which can be extremely hard to get your hands on – especially after the first couple of rounds. There’s probably potential for further growth in Dejounte’s 3PT game but I haven’t baked too much of that in as yet. There’s still more potential upside in this line, he could average more shots, tidy his free throws up further and quite possibly average more assists.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – Without any glaring holes in his game for a guard, he fits nicely in most builds and won’t hurt you anywhere. He has a great assist to turnover range too which is an important differentiator when trying to compete in both assists and turnovers.

Punt 3s – You’re encroaching on a lot of his upside by punting 3s but he isn’t a plus contributor in 3s so makes a lot of sense as you’re still going to want guard stats and there aren’t a lot of guards who benefit from this build.

Punt Blocks – As with a lot of guards, they don’t contribute which makes them gain a lot of value in punt block builds. Dejounte is of particular value in Punt blocks due to his high out of position rebounds. If you can take Lamelo and Dejounte you can be really well stocked in boards without taking a big through the first 4 rounds. Combine them with a Vuc or Sabonis and you are really cooking.

Key Observations

• Watch for the distribution of shots for the Spurs in preseason – if Murray is at the heart of things there’s even more upside here.

44. Russell Westbrook

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.070 (82)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.513 (40)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
21.55	1.13	8.50	7.50	1.55	0.40	0.446	18.00	0.725	6.00	4.50

Season Outlook

Westbrick Westbrook finds himself at 44 for one key reason. He locks you into a single build. There are 3 categories here where he is no good. One is kind of manageable but there’s just better options in that build. We don’t know what effect playing in LA next to Lebron will have on his statline but I’m tipping not much. There’s a lot of people that talk about how he stat-pads (he does), and that he doesn’t earn his rebounds (in particular). There’s two things I have to say to those people, firstly – as fantasy players we do not care. Secondly, it is actually far more effective in transition for him to grab free rebounds and sprint up court, taking advantage of his speed in transition to catch opposing teams off-guard less able to set themselves defensively. The second of those reasons is why I actually don’t think this stat changes all that much.

Punting Strategy

Efficiency Triple Punt (FG, FT, TO) – Westbrook is this low in my rankings because I don’t love this build. It does make things easy in some ways, you’ll still win FG some weeks, FT% may be a bit harder to win but I dare say you’ll get there some weeks. Where this build really comes in is in the middle and late rounds where a lot of players have noticeable deficiencies in one or two of these categories, you can ignore that and address any holes in your counting stats without worry.

Punt FT & TO – Brodie also fits in the Giannis – Zion – Simmons style build, actually as an excellent 3rd round selection. You’re going to need to grab a shot blocker at some point, and Poeltl late seems like a great option alongside the best shot blocker you can find late in the fourth / early fifth: Rob Williams maybe. Then Simmons to boot and we are cooking with gas (except with absolutely no 3s whatsoever). Rounds 6 to 13, Poeltl and maybe one other shot blocker aside – should be reserved only for flamethrowers – and I mean like the 2-3 triples per game variety.

Key Observations

• Watch his usage alongside Lebron – this will be a big insight into what the effects of LA might have on his stats this year. There is definitely big risk associated with Westbrook this year.

45. Christian Wood

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.113 (51)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.482 (45)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
19.89	1.81	9.51	1.60	0.80	1.24	0.522	13.78	0.695	5.33	1.96

Season Outlook

For someone I was so damn high on last year Christian Wood strikes me as terrible value this year in fantasy drafts. He seems to go in round 3 most of the time and I can’t really understand it. The numbers have him at 45 and that’s without baking in all the intangibles which might derail him from this spot. I think there is a good chance we see a worse per minute Christian Wood this year in a team that is going to have Kevin Porter Jr. doing his best James Harden impression and Jalen Green who has lead-the-league-in-scoring kind of offensive potential. Wood also flashed glimpses of something I wouldn’t be surprised to see this year, a disappearing act on the defensive end after he returned from injury combined with a dreadful spell at the free throw line. Some projections I’ve seen have this bouncing back, but he’s a career low 70s guy on low volume. With bigs, high volume often means lower %. He shot 63% from the line last year and I see that bouncing back but not by 12 or more percent posted in a lot of places. He is also going to be playing at the 4 this year, a position that usually means lower defensive numbers, worse fg% and less overall fantasy value for true big men.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – Wood isn’t quite a punt FT big man, but its close, he certainly was last year so if we don’t see retracement, next years guide will have him listed as such. There aren’t any other noticeable holes in his game, assists are low but as a center thats not the end of the world.

Punt Assists – as with most bigs Wood gains value in the punt assist build. He is particularly valuable in this punting strategy however due to his out of position 3s, decent steals and elite scoring.

Key Observations

• Watch closely for Wood’s shot distribution, if he spends a lot of time on the perimeter like Randle, AD and Porzingis we might see his fg% dissipate in favour of more 3s. This would also mean less boards and blocks too.

46. Jonas Valanciunas

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.030 (65)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.474 (47)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
15.47	0.35	11.00	1.75	0.45	0.95	0.590	10.50	0.780	3.50	1.80

Season Outlook

Big V is a guy who I am watching intently this season. There’s big upside here. Pelicans look set to run at a fast pace this year with a lot of possessions as they look to make the most out of Zion, Ingram and other young assets athleticism. Why would that help a big man like Val you ask? Well more rebounding opportunities, scrambled defenses and tired opposition means better and more frequent scoring opportunities for big men in the paint and trailing in transition through the lane. The Pelicans were very keen to get Val on their squad this year and I think he could prove to be an important piece for the young Pelicans. Playing devil’s advocate here, there’s also the fact that Val is a big and not very mobile player, he’s been a suspect defender at times in his career and sprinting up and down the court is going to tire him and potentially limit his energy on defense. Overall I haven’t moved his numbers all that much but there’s room to move on both sides of the equation depending how things play out in New Orleans.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – a big man who doesn’t hurt free throws. This is what balanced builds are all about, not killing a % and not ruining your A/TO ratio.

Punt Assists – Fits punt assists the same way most big men do. Nothing spectacular to read here.

Key Observations

• A riskier proposition than in previous years watch how he is fitting into what the pelicans try to do in preseason.

47. Jrue Holiday

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.196 (36)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.446 (51)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
17.20	1.83	4.50	5.85	1.60	0.65	0.481	14.00	0.765	2.50	2.45

Season Outlook

Jrue Holiday represents a safe set of hands for a couple of builds in Round 4. He is a great in punt points for his all around game. And he also makes a lot of sense for punt FT% teams who have gathered enough points by round 4. Jrue offers excellent steals and fg% and is a slight drag on free throw – albeit on very low volume. I don’t expect a whole lot to change for Jrue at this point in his career.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – A player with few flaws, he isn’t the best from the line but its on very low volume, he blocks shots well for a point guard, is an elite steals guy with solid assists rebounds and 3s on low turnovers.

Punt Points – One other category where Jrue may lack, especially if you haven’t loaded up on it through the first 3 rounds is points. He’s an excellent fit in punt points build due to his all around hurt-free statline.

Punt FT – Assists, steals and a trickle of 3s – exactly what most Punt FTs need at this stage of the draft. A better fit if you’ve gone zion or two elite scorers either side of your punt ft big man.

Key Observations

• Nothing really to note – careful not to rely too heavily on his steals. Like any player with high steals, it’s important not to bank on that holding at super high levels when drafting as there is high season to season and week to week fluctuation. Dominating these categories is more about having a lot of players who contribute than 1 or 2 high count guys.

48. Tyrese Haliburton

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.196 (35)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.464 (49)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
15.27	2.40	3.25	5.75	1.45	0.50	0.468	12.50	0.875	1.35	1.75

Season Outlook

Clean, efficient, smooth – just a born hooper. Halliburton’s game translates to Fantasy Hoops just as much as it does real life. He’s got an extremely high ceiling as a fantastic do it all, clean point guard one day. It probably won’t be while he’s playing SG next to De’Aaron Fox. Still, even now he’s an extremely efficient option well suited to any build due to his clean %s, low turnovers and all around game. Steals and triples on great %s are the point of difference here.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – It’s hard to really place this guy on my rankings. He’s clean, but isnt elite in any one category. A great plug the gaps guard in any build if you’re picking around the 4 / 5 turn. 

Key Observations

• There should be more opportunities for Haliburton to play point guard with the bench unit and in certain lineups. If I was in charge of the Kings I would stagger Haliburton and Fox’s minutes as much as possible – not because Haliburton can’t play next to him but because I want Haliburton running point whenever Fox is off the court for this team.

49. Tobias Harris

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.155 (41)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.297 (69)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
19.85	1.73	6.75	3.25	0.80	0.70	0.488	15.50	0.855	3.50	1.70

Season Outlook

Another harm-free player that acts as a positive accumulator to whichever build you slot him into. I think he probably benefits the most from Simmons’ absence early in the season. He will become the true no.2 usage player on the team and assists and shot attempts should see an uptick as a result. I haven’t baked either of those two things into his line as there’s still a lot of unknown about the Simmons situation – who do they get back? How long does he sit? Does he just swallow his pride and come back for a period of time? Back to Harris’ I think he is what he is mostly at this point of his career, he’s an excellent balanced piece for your fantasy squad later in the fourth round or start of the fifth. This ranking is a tad low, he could be 3-4 spots higher quite easily.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – the best thing about Harris is he fits a variety of builds. His biggest point of difference is probably for teams that want some rebounds as they’ve taken a lower rebounding big man in the first few rounds but also don’t want to take a proper big and lose scoring.

Key Observations

• Not too much to look for in Harris’ game, watch the Simmons situation, but I don’t think it has a huge effect.

50. Robert Williams

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.089 (55)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.539 (35)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
8.70	0.00	7.41	1.87	0.93	1.87	0.725	5.25	0.620	1.75	1.11

Season Outlook

Robert Williams is a beast of big man with genuine top 25 upside this year. The difficulty will be playing time. Not just because Al Horford is reportedly putting up a huge case to start (per Celtics Head Coach Ime Udoka) but also because he has a problem with fouls. However I have mocked his per 36 numbers across just 21 minutes this year and that’s good enough to be top 40 in H2H and top 60 overall. He’s a per minute beast with huge FG-Impact and if Al got hurt or Timelord wins more than 21 minutes per game he will shoot up the board. Sure there’s some risk associated with this guy, but there’s risk with a lot of players around this point of the draft.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – He shoots low enough volume from the line to justify taking him in most builds assuming you’ve loaded up on enough FT impact earlier in your draft. He can get a lot of builds out of their respective defensive holes too with elite steal and block rates.

Punt FT – He’s not a good shooter from the line and if he does earn minutes the attempts will rise and potentially put a fairly large impact on this figure.

Punt Points – A non-contributor in points on his low minutes I wouldn’t hesitate to take him here if you have build your punt points around some elite FT impact guys early in the draft.

Key Observations

• Keep an eye on the split between him and Horford. It’s just speculation that Horford will start at this stage and Williams doesn’t need a ton of time to be elite anyway.
• As a rule of thumb, we should be careful paying market price for defensive stats, especially ones on low minutes who we are predicting to break out. Keep that in mind when drafting, if there’s more reliable big men on the board – give significant thought to taking them.

51. Isaiah Stewart

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.148 (44)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.469 (47)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
12.16	0.80	9.01	1.17	0.78	1.92	0.532	9.40	0.700	1.94	1.15

Season Outlook

Beef Stew is a man I am excited to own in a couple of leagues this year. I think he’s currently way too low on a lot of people and sites rankings. This guy posted big lines in only 21 minutes per game this year for a club that got rid of Mason Plumlee to open minutes up for him. I have projected him at 28 minutes but this could be higher and as such the line above could be even better. There’s really not a lot that leads me to believe he won’t hit at least the line above either, Olynyk isn’t a starting center on this ball club, he will play a lot of minutes but not in front of Stew, as a backup 4 and 5.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – He doesn’t drag your free throws by enough to be concerned and does well in literally every other category to help fantasy teams. Take him in whichever build you’re considering.

Punt Assists – He’s not a huge passer of the ball yet and so fits this build. He is a center though lets not forget so there’s no need to go down this path, he will just obviously gain value if you do happen to go down this path.

Key Observations

• Stewart could be huge this year, watch playing time in the preseason – 14-10-1-1-2 with a triple and 50%/70% efficiency is possible.

52. Myles Turner

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.145 (45)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.433 (52)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
12.33	1.58	6.50	1.10	0.80	2.50	0.455	9.50	0.765	2.75	1.43

Season Outlook

Myles Turner is a really interesting use case for a theory that is becoming more and more prominent among fantasy hoops analysts. Don’t pay up for defense. Steals and blocks specialists let you down. Now I am not saying this about Gobert or Capella because they also dominate the boards, offer elite fg% and have specific value in punt free throw builds as the core of said build. With Myles, the point of difference is elite blocks for a FT hurt free player. That’s it. His points are low like most other shot blockers, he hits 3s (league average) which is nice, but we can get threes from other sources. So in most cases we are drafting Myles Turner for one category. That category also happens to fluctuate a lot, not just with Turner but other players as well. You’ll notice I’m projecting a pretty significant decline in blocks for Turner to what is typically around his floor in the category. This is because we simply cannot bank on Turner’s blocks being as high as they were, and we want to draft him on what is reasonable to expect and then reap the rewards of what could be if that does pan out.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – Turner doesn’t hurt us anywhere, if we are well placed in scoring and have drafted another big man who doesn’t exactly dominate from a swats perspective then Turner makes a lot of sense in the 5th round.

Punt FG% – The best build for Turner in my opinion. This build has a natural synergy with scorers, so Turners low points per game doesn’t really bother us. This build also struggles in boards and blocks. So Turner doesn’t exactly rebound that well, but he will almost single handedly win us blocks, if you landed KP in round 3/4 and Turner in round 5 you probably don’t need to think much about blocks for the rest of the draft outside of Covington or PJ Washington.

Punt Assists – Turner fits this build, but I don’t particularly love him in it. All big men gain from this build really so typically I am trying to stack as much scoring on my team as possible and have the bigs I do draft give me a FG boost along with boards and blocks. Turner does a little of each of these but it’s not really the point of difference I’m after

Key Observations

• Just watch for how Carlisle wants to play Turner and Sabonis this year. I don’t expect too much to change but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

53. Demar Derozan

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.080 (56)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.409 (54)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
20.85	0.23	4.77	5.50	0.92	0.37	0.508	14.67	0.865	6.60	2.20

Season Outlook

I think Demar is being majorly slept on this year after his move to the Bulls. The Bulls team now has a bunch of facilitators and compared to San Antonio there’s definitely more players for the ball to go through. With all that said Demar makes an excellent player in punt 3s builds. If you are a Curry owner who has managed to get some other elite shooters then this also makes sense as a points / rebounds / assists play in the middle rounds. Derozan also offers elite %s. There’s a lot to like here, very similar to Jimmy Butler without the steals.

Punting Strategy

Punt 3s – Derozan makes an outstanding fit in punt 3s builds. In particular if you have the first pick in the draft and manage to take Jokic, come back for Butler at the turn and grab Derozan in the middle, well done you’re pretty much locked into the top 4 of your league with that core alone (health permitting)

Balanced – Derozan doesn’t hurt you anywhere, if you’ve targeted 3s early and often he makes a lot of sense in the middle rounds.

Key Observations

• I’m reasonably confident that the Bulls haven’t brought Derozan in only to change his role from that we saw in San Antonio. I think they want exactly that, a matchup mismatch with a polished midrange game. BUT – double check this in preseason.

54. Malcolm Brogdon

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.103 (52)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.346 (64)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
20.09	2.70	5.25	5.50	0.80	0.25	0.450	16.00	0.885	3.40	2.05

Season Outlook

Brogdon is nice balanced fantasy asset in 21-22. He isn’t shooting as clean as he once did in Milwaukee but he’s an efficient point guard who offers plus rebounding and below average defensive stats. He makes a lot of sense for owners who have locked up good defensive stats throughout the earlier rounds and are looking for an efficient point guard to keep them afloat in scoring and assists. I don’t expect much to change in Brogdon’s line, the Pacers backcourt and wings seems to be forever banged up. That’s the key takeaway this year though, with Levert inserted into the lineup late last year Brogdon initiated less of the offense and his numbers fell as a result. He took slightly more 3s with Levert next to him and so this is something to watch with Levert suffering from a fracture in his back early in the year, once he’s healthy we need to consider the effects on Brog’s line.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – Brogdon really fits any build. Make sure you’ve locked up defensive stats so that you can insert Brogdon without too many concerns of his weakest area affecting your build.

Punt Blocks – Offering plus rebounding for the punt blocks build is something we look for from guard to center to try and offset the fact we are not taking any true centers in this build typically.

Key Observations

• Pacers backcourt is once again banged up so don’t expect to get too much of a glimpse into the future in preseason but Levert’s presence is something to watch for once he’s back.

55. Draymond Green

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.071 (59)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.400 (56)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
8.48	0.86	7.25	7.25	1.45	0.90	0.441	7.50	0.760	1.33	2.50

Season Outlook

A unique option, Draymond is a fantastic option for punt points and punt 3s builds. He gains significant value in this specific build (ranked 17) and I think its one of the primary use cases for drafting him. He doesn’t make a great option really in other builds as he destroys your points and 3s columns and doesn’t help you (or hurt you) in either %. He’s a great out of position source of assists and steals and throws in a block so he is definitely unique. He had a stretch towards the end of last year where he got back to his top 30 days. I don’t really see those numbers sustaining for a season anymore, once Klay comes back it opens up the passing lanes for him and the supporting cast in GSW is a lot better than it was last year. I won’t be too surprised if he is better than I’ve projected in most categories.

Punting Strategy

Punt Points – An extremely valuable player in punt points, Draymond does everything we want in this build. Especially since he provides assists and steals which can be difficult to find in this build.

Double Punt Points & 3s – You definitely can use Dray in a punt 3s, but he pushes you towards the double punt. He makes an excellent mid round selection in this build. He projects 17th in the build and getting him 3 rounds later than that is a steal.

Key Observations

• Warriors will be better this year, they have a couple of more reliable wing options and an upstart young third splash brother Jordan Poole who could insert himself into the starting lineup. This would have a big effect on Draymond as more shooting in the starting line up will open up the passing lanes for him.

56. Derrick White

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.147 (44)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.359 (60)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
18.50	2.34	4.44	4.71	0.90	0.90	0.448	15.00	0.850	3.20	1.60

Season Outlook

Derrick White is a player you will see going as late as in the 80s this season in some drafts. I absolutely do not understand why. If you watched the Spurs last year, they had nobody who could shoot 3s except White. Like literally nobody. So they kept forcing the ball to white for long range bombs, often in less than ideal situations. His shot 2PT/3PT shot distribution went from a ratio of 1.5 2PTer for every 3 he attempted in 19-20 to 0.85 2PTers for every 3 in 20-21. That’s a substantial climb for someone who everyone knows is not Steph Curry. I don’t think that will hold this year. I think we see White playing his more natural game, and I think, as the best 3 level scorer this team has in 21-22 I think we see quite a large increase in usage thanks to the hole Derozan leaves. I think somewhere around the 15 shot attempts per game on something more like a 1.3:1 2/3pt attempt ratio is the sweet spot for White. The rest of his game will come back too – he should average somewhere in the ballpark of 4.5 rebounds and assists with nearly a steal and nearly a block per game. He tends to lean heavier on blocks in recent years but suspect things might balance out for him this year.

Punting Strategy

Punt FG% – You may not agree with my shot distribution predictions. If you don’t thats okay, dial his 3s up in your estimations and push his FG% down towards 40%, then proceed to get just as good of a value in the middle rounds for Punt FG%. This is the safest build to take him in, if I’m wrong you don’t care, if I’m right, 45% still isn’t great shooting and the rest of his line is still a great fit.

Balanced – If you agree the shot distribution was off last year, we are talking about a player who can be a lot better for balanced builds (or any build really) next year. White doesn’t really have a point of difference. His Assist to TO ratio has always been very good.

Key Observations

• Shot distribution and usage are the two things we need to keep close eyes on this year, I think he could be in store for a massive breakout.

57. Gordon Hayward

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.124 (48)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.306 (67)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
19.93	1.90	6.00	4.10	1.10	0.35	0.460	15.00	0.845	5.00	2.00

Season Outlook

Gordon Hayward has long been one of the more well rounded and effective 9-cat players in the NBA. More of a roto guy due to his harm free line (unfortunately this doesn’t apply to his durability). He is going to be great again this year as Lamelos running mate. This is a Hornets team that now has direction behind Lamelo as its superstar of the future (and current). They are going to be gunning for the playoffs and free agency showed that was their intention plugging some key gaps and shoring up their rotation. Hayward is an all-around player, he offers great rebound for a guard eligible player and is elite from the free throw line. You need to be wary of injuries, any sniff and I would steer clear for at least another round.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – Hayward works with most builds as he is effective across the board. Injuries are the only thing that keeps him this low on my draft board.

Key Observations

• As he gets older look for Hayward to develop more and more of his ranged shooting, I expect a slight uptick in volume there this year (on slightly lower %).

58. Jusuf Nurkic

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.000 (65)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.354 (63)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
15.14	0.30	9.65	2.75	0.95	1.35	0.502	12.00	0.700	4.00	1.91

Season Outlook

The big Bosnian has burnt me too many times and as such I have actively avoided him this year. That said he represents incredible value here at the end of the 5th round. Billups has publicly talked about how he wants to use the big man at the center of what the Trailblazers do in 21-22 and I think that has him poised to be an elite player. What that means I don’t really know. He has the passing ability to be a Jokic-lite player, averaging close to 5 assists. Bam is probably a more comparable statline actually. That’s the upside. But then I’ve thought that for a few years now and it just doesn’t eventuate. That’s why I have predicted the above line instead. He’s a guy with a free throw that could easily be mid 80s this year, but equally it could sit sub 60% too. He’s a wild card, and I think he could be a steal for some owners who haven’t got the previous ownership scars.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – another potentially great big man who doesn’t hurt you anywhere. No contingencies or strings attached, assuming your smalls shoot 3s the Bosnian will produce for you up and down his 9-cat line.

Key Observations

• Pay close attention to how he is being used in preseason. I mean more than just box scores, watch the highlights or if you can the games and see if they are using him as the handler for on-ball rub screens and distribution. 
• Could be 20-30 spots worth of value in his assists and free throw % potential.

59. CJ McCollum

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.077 (59)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.281 (72)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
21.98	2.50	4.00	4.50	0.85	0.45	0.460	18.50	0.825	3.00	1.55

Season Outlook

Another Trailblazer coming one pick later is CJ McCollum. CJ could be as high as mid 40s on this list. He doesn’t do a lot other than score, his boards and assists are nice but not elite. He is a lot like Derrick White minus the blocks. We just know with a bit more certainty what we are getting here with CJ. He’s Portlands number 2, however I think with the addition of Norman Powell there is now more competition for those outside shots in this team, it’s not something I have necessarily baked into the line but definitely something to watch.

Punting Strategy

Punt Assists – His point guard eligibility makes him a contender to slot in at the 1 guard in our lineups and give us the scoring we look for from this position. His assists could drop slightly this year with decreased usage too.

Balanced – CJ is balanced enough to roll out in most builds. Make sure you’ve taken care of your defensive categories though.

Key Observations

• Look at his usage – we are hearing Nurkic is going to initiate and be involved in more offense, Norman Powell is also in the picture so there’s potential we see a slightly diminished line from CJ this year.

60. Ben Simmons

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.036 (75)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.572 (31)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
14.98	0.08	7.56	7.11	1.60	0.67	0.568	10.49	0.610	4.89	2.98

Season Outlook

One of the biggest offseason talking points has been Ben Simmons willingness to continue for the 76ers. I mean I don’t blame him really. They hung him out to dry in a way I have not really seen in professional sports. His star teammate made an example of him as the reason they lost the series. Then the head coach basically said he doesn’t want him as the starting point guard next year – something he has comically tried to deny / shift the meaning behind in more recent times as the 76ers look to save face and some trade value. Ben will sit out, I think the longer the 76ers wait the lower his trade value gets. I don’t really know what a fair price is. In terms of drafting Ben, you are getting a 30 pick discount at pick 60 for his services in pretty much the only build you can trot him out in (Punt FT) and you may even be able to get him later than this in your drafts. There’s risk here, but you’re getting a steep discount for that risk. That’s assuming you have a bench / IL spot to stash him in, if not and it’s a daily set league, let him slide a round or two further.

Punting Strategy

Punt FT – Standard stuff with Ben Simmons. He helps you in with his elite steals and assists whilst almost acting like a proxy big man with his FG impact, boards and blocks. Make sure you’re looking after your triples.

Double Punt 3s & FT: The Giannis – Zion – Simmons route. However, in this build, we will look to be a little more conservative with our turnovers, preserving a respectable A/TO ratio whilst not being concerned about poor volume 3s (something that punt FT bigs and picks typically struggle to provide). Assists are the key here; you will need to draft some players that don’t seem like good fits but provide a good A/TO ratio to offset Giannis and Zion’s poor ratio.

Double Punt FT & TOs: Giannis Zion and Simmons offer great synergy (doubling down on elite fg impact, poor turnovers and poor FT%). You can take this trio in a different direction to punt 3s by punting turnovers instead. This trifecta (Zion round 2, Simmons round 4 or 5) will leave you elite in most things, requiring just 1 punt ft big man to boost your blocks and boards. You can pretty much just draft 3s, assists and scoring for the rest of your roster without worrying about FG% due to the impact these 3 players provide, FT% or Turnovers.

Key Observations

• I think everyone who follows the NBA will be waiting to see what happens with Simmons. I think Golden State is the best and most ideal home for his talents. A package that consists of Wiggins and young prospects and picks won’t be the most appealing to the 76ers though I’m sure, but I just don’t know if there are many other suitors out there.

61. Kyle Lowry

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.099 (53)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.389 (57)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
16.38	2.81	5.00	6.50	1.20	0.26	0.423	12.50	0.855	3.50	2.50

Season Outlook

I think Lowry is the kind of player who regardless of where he plays, not change too much statistically. I expect Heat to be his last hurrah but I don’t think this changes his line all that much. He will be a solid but not elite scorer with elite 3s, good out of position rebounds, above average assists and steals with sub par shooting and top numbers from the line. At the heat you have two other facilitators in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo but I don’t think this really effects his game too much. He may shoot more 3s this year but his assists should stay within the ballpark, he has played with other usage players before in Derozan, FVV and Siakam and this has not really affected his assist totals too much.

Punting Strategy

Punt FG – there is a fairly significant impact on FG% when rostering Lowry and so he makes a lot of sense in Punt fg builds.

Punt Blocks – He doesn’t contribute to the category and as such there is some logic in punting it if you haven’t invested heavily in the category through 5 rounds.

Key Observations

• Assists are my only concern, there are other distributors here and a knock in this attribute would probably knock him down into that 70-80 range.

62. Pascal Siakam

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.201 (33)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.435 (51)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
23.33	1.95	7.25	4.00	1.00	0.75	0.460	18.50	0.827	5.25	2.50

Season Outlook

Siakam is hurt for the first 6-8 weeks of the season. Which sees a guy who is probably a third round guy in drafts this year slip to the 6th round. I wouldn’t let him slip much further assuming you have bench or IL spots in your league to stash him. He’s probably set for a slight uptick in most categories this year and had a tough time with his 3 point shot last year. Usually a 36% shooter from deep, Siakam shot just under 30% (a big difference) last year which had an effect on his FG%. The year before there was a lot of discussion about his 2 point % also being significantly down, in his first 3 years he shot 60% from 2 point range, then the last 2 years that has dropped down to 50%. I think most of this is due to him expanding his game to 3 point range but its a sign there’s upside if he tweaks his shot selection somewhat. You’ll want to consider Siakam as a small forward who plays power forward. He’s not a true big but he’s elite – and has upside to jump up into the top 20 players on per game value.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – He doesn’t hurt any category by enough to force you to punt it, his FG% is weak for a big man but if you treat him more like a small forward and take more bigs around him you’ll be fine.

Punt FG – One way you can take him as a big man is if you’re punting FG% and don’t care about the lack of impact he brings in that category. This build needs boards and blocks which Siakam doesn’t bring a lot of but he does offer more than you’d find from a guard.

Key Observations

• This is a big year for Siakam once he returns. Lowry is gone and he needs to step up as the true alpha of this Toronto squad transitioning into a new era. If he takes to that no.1 status we could see him jump up a tier into the true top 20.

63. Anthony Edwards

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.020 (65)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.022 (67)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
21.60	2.61	4.91	3.21	1.42	0.47	0.426	17.94	0.785	4.72	2.36

Season Outlook

There’s significant hype around this man this season and for good reason. I think if things click for him we could be looking at a legitimate superstar. There’s a lot of upside in his defensive numbers due to his athleticism and he’s quoted as saying he wants to average 2-3 steals per game this year. I’d be surprised if he gets that high but I do genuinely believe a slight uptick in this category is possible. I think he can also improve from distance ever so slightly both in volume and % made. I think he becomes the legitimate second option for the Timberwolves this year, he will get his name called for plays more often and will be a nice complement between KAT and D’russ.

Punting Strategy

Punt FG% – even with increases to his outside game Edwards won’t be a good shooter this year. I think he will get things up to a 45-46% mark at some point in his career but that won’t be this year I don’t think. 

Balanced – You could wheel him out in balanced builds but you’ll have to have an extremely strong base in FG% to do this, still he makes a lot of sense for teams that have lent into bigs early in their drafts as he will get you back to a decent spot in scoring, 3s and steals.

Key Observations

• Watch his activity on defense. I personally believe this 2-3 steals claim is a stretch but theres plenty of twitter reports out about how dialed in he is defensively this year so I think he will have definitely put a lot of work into cutting passing lanes, dribble checks and active hands in the offseason which paired with his athleticism could pay serious dividends in swipes.

64. Robert Covington

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.020 (64)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.336 (64)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
9.17	1.81	6.04	1.29	1.41	1.09	0.409	7.77	0.825	1.21	1.13

Season Outlook

You know that whole thing I said about not paying market prices for defenses as players’ defensive stats usually fluctuate and we can’t rely on them? Yeah, well that doesn’t apply to Sir Cov. He has long been the pinup buy for providing the gritty underrated stats that we typically overlook in favour of scoring, boards and assists. Covingtons statline took a bit of a hit in Portland on a per minute basis last year and I actually think it will be his minutes that take the hit this year (32 down to 29). So this line is a bit lower than it could be if he proves me wrong. Still Cov is an elite fantasy contributor and shouldn’t be overlooked in your draft, most rankings have him closer to 80 or even lower than that (ESPN I’m looking at you). Round 6/7 is a good spot for Cov, there’s upside he gets to 3rd or 4th round value but there’s also a chance he gets buried on a deep roster in Portland.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – Cov doesn’t hurt you anywhere that much. He is a FG% drag due to the high proportion of 3s he shoots but its not on enough volume to really matter in most builds. If you’re on the edge in FG maybe there are better options for you here. Points is the greater concern, if you’re wanting to remain competent in scoring grabbing Cov here is tough if you have taken other valuable players who are light in scoring along the way (CPR, Holmes, Draymond, Simmons) or are going to in the short term (Lonzo, Allen, Bridges).

Punt FG – an excellent fit in the Punt FG builds that have gone Trae young early, Cov can balance out those lacking defensive numbers.

Punt Points – I expressed in the balanced build section how I was concerned about pairing Cov with other light on points contributors. If you’re punting points that obviously doesn’t apply and you can pick up great value from a bunch of these guys along the way.

Key Observations

• Center minutes are the key for Cov, he produces more boards, steals and blocks from the small ball 5 role so look to see if he’s getting much time their in preseason – I suspect not given the addition of Larry Nance Jr.

65. Jarrett Allen

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.147 (44)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.359 (60)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
13.72	0.32	10.00	1.65	0.55	1.45	0.593	8.50	0.700	4.75	1.35

Season Outlook

Jarrett Allen is my contingency big if I miss out on some of the bigs I have previously mentioned. He’s not a guy who will have the upside of like Isaiah Stewart or Jusuf Nurkic, but he’s a clean big man who should continue to thrive in a Cavs roster who has him pinned as their franchise center for the foreseeable future. I think there’s a couple of things that Cleveland is going to look to do, they’re going to look to develop Allen and Mobley’s outside game so they have a prominent two big lineup where both players can pivot inside and out. This will take time so don’t factor a triple per game in for Jarrett Allen this season. He will be an excellent source of boards, these may be slightly lower than I have projected with Mobley in town but I think somewhere around 10. His free throws are also a bit of a mystery, his stroke and previous prowess at the line suggest he can one day be an 80% or thereabouts guy from the line, I think somewhere around 70% this year but there’s a good chance he’s significantly better than that and that is where his value hitches. Improvement from the stripe will put him up into that fourth/fifth round type of area.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – Allen’s point of difference is his high boards and lack of FT hurt. He’s actually more of a free throw drain than some of the other big men I have said this about due to his volume but he also has long stretches of 75%+ that gives us hope it’ll be a lot better.

Key Observations

• Watch his outside shooting and free throw in preseason. I suspect we will see it at a higher rate here than in the regular season as the cavs attempt to get their spacing right.

66. Kemba Walker

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.061 (59)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.367 (58)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
18.03	2.80	3.95	4.93	1.12	0.28	0.419	14.45	0.899	3.47	2.05

Season Outlook

This is one a lot of people are sleeping on. Oh he was hurt, oh he’s injury prone. Okay he was also a top 30 player in punt FG% last year. In a statistically down year. So you can get a guy, who will have a prominent offensive role, on a team coached by Tom Thibodeau – who likes to play his starters insane minutes. Is that playing with fire when talking about someone like Kemba (who btw was once lauded for his durability)? Probably, but at this point of the draft there are very very few players who have top 30 upside. Kemba should be better in New York than in Boston, he will be more involved in the offense and more of a contributor outside of just shooting. If you need a guard coming into the 6th round. Don’t overlook Kemba, there may be other options here but 18ppg with 5 assists and above average steals with top draw FT impact on a great A/TO ratio is not something you can find here in other players.

Punting Strategy

Punt FG% – Kemba’s drain on this category isn’t quite a pick him and you are punting FG% scenario – but it’s close. I recommend players who have already gone down this path to be the ones who pick up Kemba as you then can ignore his worst category. His fit here is actually more for those who haven’t gone too heavy on guards early, maybe you cashed KP and JJJ earlier in the draft and got a Paul George early rather than Trae Young.

Punt Blocks – You can pair Punt FG and Punt Blocks or Rebounds to create a pretty juicy double punt, the issue is you usually end up also punting turnovers and triple punts aren’t something I condone in fantasy – the margins for error are too small.

Key Observations

• Suss his role in preseason – I fully expect a big role for him but just confirm it.

67. Jerami Grant

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.011 (71)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.232 (82)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
21.35	2.19	5.00	2.50	0.70	1.10	0.440	16.00	0.800	6.35	1.75

Season Outlook

Some may say this is a bit low for the breakout man last year. The numbers disagree. The numbers actually suggest he should be atleast 5 spots lower than this. It comes down to perspective with Jerami Grant. On the numbers side I’ve hedged my bets a little which is something I typically prefer not to do in favour of picking which direction he is headed. Is it back half of the year where the Pistons look to play more balanced and move the ball around to different players. Or is it the first half of the season where Jerami was playing like a top 20 asset, hitting 86% of his free throws and just generally hooping out. I don’t know the answer to that, its probably for the best that he has Cade and Stewart firing on all cylinders alongside him in the starting line up as I think when he is asked to do less he actually provides more. We could see more like the first 2 month Jerami this year if Cade is a star and Stewart takes off but we could also see him disappear as the 2nd or 3rd option in that scenario too.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – He’s not terrible anywhere by enough to force you to punt but we should definitely watch his free throws. He was awful from the stripe towards the end of last year and if that continues it makes his lacklustre FG% even harder to stomach.

Punt FG – One of the more frustrating holes in Jerami’s game which seemed to be fix early last year was FG%. He was up above 45% and looked like he was taking to his new found no.1 status really well. Then it all fell apart. I think 44% is the mark for him and that’s not good enough from either forward spot to not at least consider punting FG if you haven’t taken a lot of bigs to date.

Punt Steals – A category that we don’t always look at for punting is steals, Grant fits a punt assists too but the little cousin steals are actually a decent size hole in his game. If you find yourself 6 rounds deep without a lot of steals, give it some thought, especially if you got players like Trae Young or Devin Booker on your squad who give us assists without steals.

Key Observations

• This one is all about role, is he still the alpha no.1 or are we handing the keys over to Cade.

68. Lonzo Ball

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.011 (66)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.253 (77)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
12.36	2.44	5.00	5.50	1.50	0.54	0.412	11.00	0.725	1.19	2.25

Season Outlook

Lonzo is lower down this list than I would logically quote you if you asked me where I rated him. He’s around a top 60 guy I think. The numbers however I think will go slightly down in his new home. This isn’t a team with a bunch of finishers who need a pass first point guard distributing the ball to them like New Orleans. Chicago has 3 other guys who thrive better when they have the ball in their hands. Now, Lonzo radically improved his outside shooting last year so now we don’t need to be as concerned if he is going to take more of an off ball roll since he’s going to be getting a ton of open looks from deep to compensate us for any loss in assists. Less time with ball in hand will free up his energy and focus to dial in on the defensive end too where he has huge upside to provide steals and out of position blocks. A great pick in round 6 for a lot of builds, the %s aren’t great but both come on low enough volume that I’m not too concerned.

Punting Strategy

Punt Points – The FG is a little on the brutal side, manageable though if you’ve gone big heavy which is something this build often will do – clean big men. 

Punt FG% – The FG% impact is far more of a problem than the 72.5% on just over 1 shot. Punting FG builds typically are elite in scoring and so Ball’s lack doesn’t hurt us here as much it would other builds.

Key Observations

• See how he is being used in Chicago – the worst case scenario is they have brought him in as a 3&D defensive stopper next to Lavine who remains ball dominant and the primary distributor.

69. Darius Garland

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.097 (89)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.284 (71)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
21.01	2.38	2.27	6.00	1.18	0.13	0.444	18.00	0.860	3.07	2.98

Season Outlook

I’ve got him ahead of some other guys simply because of the upside he has as a point guard and the fact that assists are generally really hard to get. He could average 7.5+ but I think it’s unlikely this year with Rubio there. Cleveland will play Garland off ball at times next to Rubio and even in some 3 guard lineups with Sexton on court as well. Garland has all the tools, he can steal the ball, hes a great passer, can hit the 3 and provides elite free throw impact. He struggled with his shot in his rookie year but I think that is now in the past. His numbers don’t project as well as some of the other guys I am listing around this point but he is still worth consideration for the upside he brings as a point guard.

Punting Strategy

Punt Blocks – You could also put him into a Punt FG situation but I think his field goal has actually improved to the point where he isn’t bad for a point guard. Punt blocks suits him more as he is not and will never be a contributor in this category.

Key Observations

• Has the tools to be a fourth round guy, maybe higher. I am not sure if this is the year, Rubio in town is going to see him in more 2 guard off ball scenarios I think and that’s just not going to offer enough in the way of assist upside to get him there I don’t think

70. Mikal Bridges

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.094 (54)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.311 (66)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
12.74	1.90	4.25	2.00	1.25	0.85	0.489	9.50	0.840	1.85	0.90

Season Outlook

Bridges is more of a roto guy. I say that because he literally is clean as a whistle, theres almost no turnovers, over 2 defensive contributions, a sprinkle of boards, not absolutely terrible assists and a couple of triples on great percentages. He just doesn’t do anything that gives me a logical situation to draft him. Whilst his %s are clean, he doesn’t actually help us win either of them because his volume is so low, his collective defensive contribution is great but he won’t win you either category, he’s got underwhelming rebounds and his 3s aren’t off the charts either. He’s a guy I draft when all the players I actually wanted around this mark are taken.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – Self explanatory, doesn’t hurt you anywhere, if you’re reasonably good in points and assists to this point he will slot in nicely at the 3 but you might not really notice his contributions.

Punt Points – Bridges isn’t a scorer so he’s not a bad fit for this build in particular. His clean %s are something I really like in this build, you almost have to think of this build like roto leagues – I don’t need to worry about what a player brings, I need to worry about a player potentially hurting me in something.

Key Observations

• A lock and load contributor, not someone I am particularly concerned about changing in any meaningful way.

71. Jakob Poeltl

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.107 (91)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.318 (65)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
9.23	0.00	8.25	1.85	0.65	1.80	0.625	6.50	0.550	2.00	1.20

Season Outlook

Poeltl broke out last year as the only real center on this team. Spurs haven’t made moves to bring anyone else in to compete with him for minutes either so he is going to get some serious run in the role again this year. He is an elite defender, even better than the stats show. I haven’t gone overboard with his block numbers but he has legitimate 2.5 per game potential if he plays 30 minutes. He’s like a Rudy Gobert-lite 5 rounds later. A great find for Punt FT builds looking to grab some extra punch.

Punting Strategy

Punt FT – He will fit all the variations of this build (with points, with 3s, with assists)

Punt Points – If you load up on free throw impact and don’t take any other major detractors from this category then Poeltl can make a lot of sense around this point of the draft to offset a covington or lonzo’s fg impact and come out neutral with a lot of healthy defensive stats.

Key Observations

• This is another one, really there’s only upside and nothing specific we are looking for, he is locked in to the starting role bar a trade and that role looks like a big minute one.

72. Bogdan Bogdanovic

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.010 (70)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.232 (81)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
16.36	3.02	3.70	3.53	1.12	0.29	0.447	13.35	0.820	1.72	1.55

Season Outlook

Bog Bog was absolutely huge for the Hawks in the few games he did play post all-star break. He was on a scoring tear, shooting mid 40s from 3, stealing it higher than usual and pretty much doing his best Klay Thompson impression. I don’t think we see that sustained over the course of a whole season but there’s some real potential here this year if he stays healthy. He is an elite scorer, the 16 points I have him projected could be on the low end. His point of difference is elite 3s without the putrid ~40% shooting that you would expect with a player scoring 3 triples per game. Throw in above average steals, good FT% and a good assist to turnover and we have something here. Now if the dial gets turned up and he gets the keys as this offense’s number 2 then he could soar up draft boards because he doesn’t have holes in his game but still has some elite categories. There are a number of SGs that come up in the next 30 or so picks and lil Bog is the one I want if I have my choosing.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – reasonably punt free the biggest concern I have with Bog Bog is his rebounds and so make sure you are properly stocked there. It makes him less of a fit in Punt FG builds due to that build usually being well stocked in 3s, steals and points.

Punt FT – one build that can make use of a guy who bombs away from 3 efficiently, gets steals and has a trickle of assists is the Punt FT build. This build has the boards and blocks to cover lil Bog’s flaws.

Key Observations

• Watch how involved Bog is in the offense this year, I think this could be a big breakout year for him with an expanded role as Atlanta’s undisputed no.2.