73. Marcus Smart

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.027 (75) 

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.306 (67)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
13.24	2.18	3.67	5.73	1.47	0.46	0.385	11.28	0.810	2.93	1.83

Season Outlook

Smart is unfortunately a but of an overkill player in fantasy, he gives you elite steals (I have projected 1.47 but he has fluctuated between 1.4 and 1.8 through his career) and a great assist to turnover ratio for a guard. But he also implodes your FG% so you can really only take him in the punt FG build that tends to be elite in 3s, assists and steals anyway. Potentially the starting PG in Boston this year, Smart could play more minutes and be particularly dialed in on defense.

Point of difference: Top end steals with a great A/TO ratio

Punting Fits: Punt FG

Key Observations: Nothing to note, proceed with confidence.

74. Norman Powell

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.027 (64)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.274 (75)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
17.95	2.32	3.44	2.11	1.28	0.37	0.470	13.29	0.855	3.67	1.74

Season Outlook

Norman Powell is way too low for my liking. Some people are pointing at how his shooting dropped off after he moved to Portland. Is 27 games really enough to discount two and a half years of 47-48% shooting? Not for me, I think that bounces back and I think there’s a lot of value here as an efficient scorer for teams that need that at this point of the draft.

Point of difference: Efficient Scoring

Punting Fits: Punt Assists, Punt FT (for scoring)

Key Observations: Watch how many shots he gets relative to McCollum in preseason, I think the risk with Powell is his usage this year with a fully stocked Portland team

75. D’Angelo Russell

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.044 (78)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.258 (61)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
20.31	2.97	3.58	6.42	1.17	0.29	0.430	16.75	0.780	3.75	2.92

Season Outlook

Formerly a guy we would take in the 40s D-Lo has taken a little bit of a tumble since his Brooklyn days. The talent is there and he has a very high fantasy ceiling (top 30) if he can put it all together. His combination of points, 3s, assists and steals is elite. If he can play better and earn more minutes he could outplay this ranking by a lot.

Point of difference: high upside 3s/Assists/Steals guy at discount due to ft% and TOs.

Punting Fits: Punt Blocks, Balanced

Key Observations: Could be included in a Ben Simmons trade, watch for news relating to this as that would be huge for his value. He also only played 28 mpg last year, a number which should be at least 30 this year.

76. Buddy Hield

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.007 (69)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.244 (78)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
16.85	3.80	4.75	3.35	0.90	0.35	0.421	13.50	0.845	2.00	1.80

Season Outlook

He’s not really gone from strength to strength since a breakout 18-19 season. He now has Haliburton to contend with as second fiddle and doesn’t like playing on the bench which has meant he is playing as a 3 when he’s really a 2. He’s a 3 point specialist with good ft% and decent boards. I don’t love him as I’d kind of rather get Duncan Robinson 3-4 rounds later albeit there’s less upside there.

Point of difference: 3s specialist with decent scoring

Punting Fits: Punt FG, Punt Blocks, Balanced, Punt FT (for scoring, 3s)

Key Observations: Has been touted in a lot of trades in the last 18 months, I don’t think any would be particularly good for his value so that is something to watch.

77. Collin Sexton

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.071 (84)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.242 (79)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
23.85	2.22	3.10	4.00	1.00	0.15	0.460	18.00	0.845	6.00	2.81

Season Outlook

I like Sexton this year, he’s a really solid and efficient scorer. I think he begins to ramp up his 3 point shooting over the coming season both in attempts and %. A reliable scorer at this range which will make good value for builds who need it.

Point of difference: Efficient scoring and FT impact with high TOs.

Punting Fits: Punt TO, Punt Assists, Punt Blocks, Punt FT (for scoring)

Key Observations: 3 pointers will be the key in him lifting above this range of players. I like him compared to the other guys who’s numbers rank above him due to his youth, durability and fit in a number of key builds.

78. Mike Conley

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.034 (75)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.239 (79)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
15.08	2.34	3.50	5.50	1.25	0.20	0.430	12.00	0.835	2.90	1.90

Season Outlook

Mike Conley is a reliable point guard who just gives you exactly what you want from the point guard spot. No thrills, no hassles. Durability is a bit more of a concern these days but he’s still good value in this range.

Point of difference: Elite A/TO ratio while ticking all the point guard boxes

Punting Fits: Punt Points, Balanced, Punt Blocks

Key Observations: Nothing significant to note.

79. Terry Rozier

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.074 (86)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.224 (85)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
18.23	2.85	4.35	4.10	1.10	0.25	0.416	15.50	0.825	3.00	2.00

Season Outlook

Terrible Terry as I had often referred to him as wasn’t so terrible last year. A reliable scorer in punt FG builds he actually shot the ball incredibly well last year by his standards. I personally don’t buy the 7.6% increase from 2PT range. It’s not a category that reliably increases by that much for players as undersized as Terry. The rest of his line is believable though and 80 is a good spot to grab him.

Point of difference: Scoring & 3s for a punt FG.

Punting Fits: Punt FG, Punt Blocks (if you believe in last years FG%)

Key Observations: Devonte’ Graham is gone meaning Terry’s role is locked in as the 6th man, he’ll score and give you a splash of everything else guards give.

80. Kyle Anderson

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.046 (61)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.197 (88)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
12.98	1.64	5.75	3.50	1.25	0.85	0.462	10.15	0.735	2.65	1.25

Season Outlook

Slo-mo was incredible last year. I am projecting most of that to remain this year. A great roto player as he doesn’t hurt you anywhere much he makes less sense in H2H formats as he also doesn’t really excel anywhere. There’s not really a build that needs what he brings desperately which is different to most of the guys in this range who have specific specialist value to certain builds.

Point of difference: Balanced reliable player who others will sleep on

Punting Fits: Balanced (any build really)

Key Observations: With JJJ back it’ll be interesting what if any effect this has on Anderson who did play some stretch 4 last year.

81. Al Horford

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.052 (81)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.150 (93)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
12.70	1.77	5.76	3.40	0.69	0.90	0.469	10.76	0.795	1.04	1.11

Season Outlook

A man who ages like fine wine. There’s speculation he might actually start over Rob Williams but I don’t think that matters all that much. He will get his ~25 minutes and produce a ridiculously well rounded line that can fit nicely in any build.

Point of difference: A great, well rounded player who fits every build.

Punting Fits: Balanced

Key Observations: Watch for the minute split early on in the season, if he gets more than my projected split he could jump into the top 65 ish range.

82. PJ Washington

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.045 (79)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.076 (111)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
14.62	1.90	6.50	2.50	1.10	1.10	0.448	12.25	0.725	2.40	2.05

Season Outlook

PJ is a fantastic all around F/C utility who has a particular niche in Punt FG builds as a do it all big man. A fantastic double selection for punt FG is Horford into PJ around this range as they both provide a bit of everything defensively and slot in nicely with the build. 

Point of difference: A rare 2-1-1 (3s, Steals, Blocks) player who fits perfectly in punt FG teams.

Punting Fits: Punt FG, Balanced

Key Observations: The minutes split between Plumlee and Washington is going to be a key watching point for potential owners in preseason.

83. Cade Cunningham

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.097 (90)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.140 (94)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
17.87	2.44	4.40	3.67	1.19	0.46	0.436	14.67	0.820	3.21	2.66

Season Outlook

Maybe a fraction early here for Cade but I think there is upside in this selection. I think I may cop some raised eyebrows about having Cade ahead of Ja Morant but there’s good cause. Cade doesn’t hurt your ft% (he helps it) and he also contributes in steals. He’s a proper 6 category contributor. 

Point of difference: Rookie with immense upside, I haven’t gone overboard with the projection and there’s every chance he surpasses this if Detroit gives him the keys. 

Punting Fits: Balanced

Key Observations: It will be interesting to see if Detroit rolls with Cade or sticks with Jerami Grant as the alpha this year, if they go with Cade there’s huge upside here.

84. Daniel Gafford

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.086 (87)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.303 (68)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
10.24	0.00	6.04	0.90	0.69	2.08	0.675	6.25	0.650	2.78	1.25

Season Outlook

This might look high for Gafford but he is penned in as the Wizards starter and is an elite shot blocker with upside here. I have projected him at 25 mins but that figure could definitely be higher. He is a per-minute beast so if it’s closer to 30 he could return top 50 or 60 value due to his blocks and FG impact. Bryant’s eventual return may make Gafford irrelevant, but with Bryant out of contract at the end of the year and returning from serious injury, Gafford has a good chance of keeping his job.

Point of difference: FG impact & Blocks

Punting Fits: Punt FT, Balanced (if you have significant ft impact)

Key Observations: Watch for the minute split between him and Harell – Harell is probably definitely going to earn around 20 minutes and once Bryant is back Gafford may become irrelevant – or he may not. Bryant won’t return until January and if Gafford has played up to potential I think he will keep his job.

85. Andrew Wiggins

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.049 (80)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.108 (97)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
18.77	2.01	5.00	3.00	0.95	0.95	0.470	15.00	0.715	3.75	1.75

Season Outlook

There was a ton of speculation that Wiggins would go unvaccinated but I think the prospect of losing millions of dollars overcame his hesitancy in getting the vaccine. Wiggins is a specialist fit for Punt FT builds as an efficient scorer who chips in 3s, assists, steals and blocks.

Point of difference: Punt FT scoring fit at a discount.

Punting Fits: Punt FT

Key Observations: I think Wiggins will be better than he was last year. I think there’s a chance he gets back to 20ppg while Klay is out and the Warriors need it.

86. Ja Morant

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.182 (108)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.136 (95)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
22.84	1.79	4.00	7.50	0.95	0.25	0.447	18.00	0.765	6.50	3.25

Season Outlook

Everyone loves this guy for his real life game but in reality he is only a points league guy. You will never be able to draft Morant here in categories and so if you’re reading this, just forget owning him because it’s not worth it. He’s a plus contributor in 3 categories (3s, points and assists) and that’s after I gave him a boost for 3rd year growth. He is glamour stats and nothing more, don’t touch him unless everyone takes the same approach and you can get him in the 8th round.

Point of difference: Elite real life upside might translate into unforeseen growth to his game.

Punting Fits: Punt FT (negates his FT drag, and his scoring can really help this build)

Key Observations: He’s a third year NBA superstar in the making, there’s scope for huge changes to his line as he continues to grow, I can’t foresee him breaking out too much above this mark.

87. Chris Boucher

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.065 (83)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.292 (71)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
11.54	1.24	5.83	0.88	0.53	1.63	0.495	8.17	0.790	2.80	0.70

Season Outlook

Boucher finds himself this low due to our inability to trust anything he does. He could play 15 minutes a game one month, break out and play nearly 20 and look like a Anthony Davis Jr the next. It’s a complete rollercoaster. Nurse doesn’t like him and actively seems to look for ways and reasons to avoid playing him. They have Scottie Barnes who is a do it all 3/4 hybrid that Nurse loves and I expect that to really effect Boucher’s minutes at the 4 meaning he is left with backup center minutes behind Khem Birch.

Point of difference: Top 20 upside in the 8th round due to inconsistency and lack of real life playing time stability.

Punting Fits: Balanced (any)

Key Observations: Watch for his role, if he gets the exact same playing time as last year this is a steal but I am forecasting a 2 minute drop which makes him just that little bit less appealing with all the headaches.

88. Mitchell Robinson

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.064 (82)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.355 (60)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
8.45	0.00	7.17	0.53	0.93	1.67	0.685	5.33	0.570	2.00	0.67

Season Outlook

M-Rob is a beast when on the court. Last year was a down year for him and I think he could bounce back. He’s also injured right now and could miss the start of the season with a foot injury. Big men with foot injuries aren’t something I am really into drafting all that much. Still he’s a per minute beast and could be every bit as good as Robert Williams who we are taking ~40 picks north of here.

Point of difference: Elite top 30 Punt FT upside

Punting Fits: Punt FT, Balanced (his FT impact isn’t that bad, if you’re really strong in FT he won’t kill you)

Key Observations: Monitor the foot situation, if he isn’t going to play for a while and you can’t stash him in IL steer clear.

89. Devonte’ Graham

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.179 (107)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.230 (84)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
16.54	3.33	3.00	6.25	0.95	0.15	0.375	14.00	0.830	3.25	2.25

Season Outlook

I am personally really high on Devonte’ Graham. Everyone is talking about NAW but New Orleans brought this guy in and he’s exactly what they have needed for some time. A floor stretching guard (what they hoped JJ Redick would be) who is going to be given a fluorescent bright green light, let me rephrase, the brightest of bright, as bright as the sun green light to shoot from 3 for this club and projection 3.33 3s per game might be going unders. He’s also going to provide great playmaking here so if you’re in a Punt FG and he’s falling in drafts past 100, do not hesitate.

Point of difference: Elite 3s with great FT% impact and an elite A/TO ratio.

Punting Fits: Punt FG, Punt Blocks

Key Observations: I’m pretty confident Graham fills the Lonzo hole this year but there are opposing views about. Watch closely in preseason.

90. Otto Porter Jr.

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.081 (86)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.108 (98)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
12.50	1.78	5.06	1.59	1.08	0.43	0.470	10.11	0.845	1.44	0.79

Season Outlook

This is probably the biggest jump on the board you have seen yet. I am a big Otto Porter Jr. fan, he is just so efficient out on the wing, he does it all. I’ve projected him in the Oubre role, 26 mins per night, and he still beats my ranking in 9 Cat value. This could be 28 or 30 minutes. He is super efficient from 3 and I think he will be a massive reason why the Warriors will be better this year. Oubre cost them big last year. He was dreadful. I genuinely think he cost them 5-6 games on his own with poor shooting and missing wide open shots. Otto Porter will hit those shots and the Warriors (and your fantasy teams) will be much better for it.

Point of difference: Incredibly efficient no hurt wing, steals are the plus plus category if he gets 28-30 mins a night

Punting Fits: Balanced (Any)

Key Observations: Watch his role, I really want to see him start at the 3/4 with Green at the 5. Might be wishful thinking but that’s what I am hoping for, regardless I have projected him at his floor, it’s all upside even at 90.

91. Brook Lopez

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.128 (91)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.179 (91)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
11.59	1.36	4.65	0.85	0.60	1.45	0.484	9.00	0.840	1.80	0.90

Season Outlook

Brolo is probably in for another minute increase as he winds down his career. He has enough left in the tank to help us as fantasy owners. He will slip a round or two past this ranking and I think you should definitely wait for that as there isn’t a lot of upside in this valuation. I don’t think his blocks will trend back up, I don’t think he ignites from 3 and hits 2 per game. In fact I think Bobby Portis starts to really eat into his minutes this year, not enough to let him slide but enough to not get too excited about Brook Lopez this year.

Point of difference: Elite blocks with solid triple production.

Punting Fits: Punt FG (can help you win blocks without getting you behind in 3s), Balanced (any)

Key Observations: Watch his minute split with Portis.

92. Ivica Zubac

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.193 (109)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.280 (77)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
11.74	0.01	8.50	1.45	0.35	1.00	0.621	7.57	0.775	3.00	1.35

Season Outlook

Zubac could be in for a very large year this year. He isn’t a big minute guy. I don’t believe you can trust him enough defensively (or condition wise) to put him out there 30 a night. But he only played 22 minutes per game last year and I think that number is closer to 25 this year,Ibaka is coming off back surgery and there are no other centers on the roster. He provides a good helping of boards, a block and top draw FG% impact without hurting your free throws. A big find this late for a lot of builds. 

Point of difference: Boards and FG impact without hurting FT%

Punting Fits: Balanced (Any), particularly useful in Punt Assists builds that have gone wing heavy and need to grab a late round big who can pick their fg% up.

Key Observations: Watch for the time split between Zubac and Ibaka, I had initially thought Ibaka would get more minutes than Zubac off the bench but I don’t think that anymore with recent news that Ibaka is limited.

93. Evan Fournier

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.154 (97)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.117 (96)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
17.64	2.25	3.20	3.50	1.05	0.15	0.455	14.00	0.815	3.25	1.80

Season Outlook

An ever reliable player who always sits around the 100 mark and finishes around the 80 mark in fantasy hoops. There’s no elite upside here but if you need a good efficient scorer who won’t hurt you anywhere and provides a trickle of assists, Fournier is your man.

Point of difference: Efficient scoring

Punting Fits: Balanced, Punt FT chasing points.

Key Observations: Fournier wasn’t a great fit in Boston but I think he’s an excellent fit in New York. Thibs plays his starters big minutes and Fournier could bump up from these projections.

94. Keldon Johnson

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.099 (90)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.076 (107)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
17.17	1.60	6.93	2.22	0.89	0.27	0.483	13.33	0.755	3.56	1.24

Season Outlook

The Spurs franchise youngster. Pop is super high on this kid and I think now with Derozan gone he might emerge as a legitimate top 100 fantasy option. I have baked in a decent increase to his usage, he will hopefully be better from 3 this year and offers great rebounding and scoring potential.

Point of difference: Elite boards on the wing with a lot of upside, he could be better than this projection.

Punting Fits: Punt Assists, Punt Steals (or double punt)

Key Observations: Free throw % will make or break his breakout season, he needs to climb into the low 80s to really be a home run here.

95. Saddiq Bey

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.109 (92)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.151 (92)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
14.94	3.04	5.33	1.60	0.89	0.27	0.408	12.00	0.845	2.49	0.98

Season Outlook

Bey had an underrated rookie season for the Pistons and they appear to hold him high regard as there 3 of the future. A much needed floor spacer for the Pistons he should be a great bomber to own this year.

Point of difference: Elite 3s with solid boards for Punt FG builds

Punting Fits: Punt FG

Key Observations: Bey should start on the wing for Pistons and be a useful source of Points, 3s, boards and not a lot else.

96. TJ McConnell

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.160 (103)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.208 (89)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
8.30	0.15	3.54	6.53	1.46	0.28	0.533	7.15	0.755	0.69	1.88

Season Outlook

The Pacers are often beat up and this year is no different. That will mean extra minutes for McConnell, when at full strength he may only play 23-24 minutes but he will still be valuable for his elite steals and great assist contribution.

Point of difference: Steals and Elite A/TO ratio

Punting Fits: Punt Points, Balanced (any)

Key Observations: Pacers start the year with Levert and TJ Warren hurt. Pretty much if any wings or guards are hurt (as they often are) it will equate to Brogdon playing more SG and more minutes for McConnell.

97. Nerlens Noel

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.099 (90)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.393 (56)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
4.73	0.00	6.07	0.70	1.02	1.92	0.625	3.19	0.725	1.02	0.96

Season Outlook

So this may seem out of place. If M-Rob is healthy I don’t recommend Noel this early but he just has such incredible per minute value that in H2H on 24 minutes he comes out as the 56th best player. If you discount points and 3s he’s an incredible fantasy player who we would take in the top 60 of drafts every day of the week. He won’t fit all builds but has specialist value at this point of the draft.

Point of difference: Elite defender in position to thrive if M-Rob is hurt

Punting Fits: Punt Points, Punt 3s or both. Punt assists. Also incredibly valuable in Punt FG% builds who are usually very high in scoring, Noel can single handedly bring you back in defensive categories.

Key Observations: With M-Rob slated to miss time Noel could far exceed my 24 minute per game projection above.

98. Facundo Campazzo

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.189 (108)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.158 (91)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
7.51	1.44	2.63	4.88	1.50	0.30	0.380	6.00	0.874	1.73	1.50

Season Outlook

On the surface this also seems like a huge reach and I don’t recommend actually drafting him in the top 100, more around 120 but this is where Campazzos per minute stats rank him on 27 minutes. Denver needs another facilitator at the 1 spot and Campazzo is an elite one. He will get the ball pinging around and also offers great defense. I predict Denver to go with Capazzo over Monte Morris although both will play similar minutes.

Point of difference: Elite steals with assists and okay 3 point production with minimal FG impact due to low volume.

Punting Fits: Punt Points, Punt FG, Balanced (needing assists and steals with a solid base in points)

Key Observations: If Campazzo earns more minutes than this, this is a steal and then some, he’s fringe top 65 in 29 minutes.

99. Caris Levert

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.026 (73)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.184 (89)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
19.58	1.84	4.65	5.50	1.25	0.60	0.436	17.00	0.750	3.86	2.25

Season Outlook

Discounted due to a stress fracture in his back it remains to be seen how this will effect his minutes. I think he is a top 80 guy otherwise. Theres 3s, rebounds, assists, steals and scoring to be had with Levert. Not the most efficient guy but versatile and he has an underrated A/TO ratio.

Point of difference: Bit of everything with above average A/TO ratio

Punting Fits: Punt FT, Balanced (must have good impact and volume on both %s)

Key Observations: How is the injury going to factor into his minutes and role this year, I have not projected any impact at all but it’s something to watch and respond to accordingly on draft day.

100. Larry Nance Jr.

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.132 (96)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.091 (101)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
9.47	0.83	7.27	2.13	1.27	0.53	0.508	7.33	0.685	1.73	1.07

Season Outlook

Finally out of Cleveland and into a situation that will suit his talents. The stacked Trailblazers have so much talent on paper and Nance is the kind of guy who thrives on playing with other talented players. There’s real value here with minutes being the key factor

Point of difference: Elite steals for a big and a classy all around line.

Punting Fits: Balanced (any)

Key Observations: Minutes are the key, I only have him playing 24 minutes for the above line. But if he plates closer to 26 or Nurkic gets hurt, watchout.

101. Kevin Porter Jr.

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.198 (122)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.163 (94)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
19.83	2.31	4.33	7.73	1.04	0.33	0.434	16.07	0.735	4.84	3.50

Season Outlook

KPJ could be huge for the Rockets this year. His game doesn’t translate nicely to fantasy however as he is inefficient from both the field, the stripe as well as turning it over a ton for his assists. That said he’s a usage monster and thinks he’s the new James Harden which should lead to plenty of ball-hogging and elite counting numbers.

Point of difference: High potential, elite counting stats

Punting Fits: Punt FT (my preferred build to use Porter in, we have low TOs anyway and his FG is less of a problem due to our high impact)

Key Observations: Wall is out in Houston so KPJ has the keys. It’s just about how good he is rather than if he will be good. 

102. Harrison Barnes

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.147 (99)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.094 (108)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
15.46	1.71	6.42	3.16	0.68	0.19	0.472	11.18	0.820	3.90	1.45

Season Outlook

Barnes is almost as generic a small forward as you can find. If he averaged .95 steals he would literally be the definition of average (his 3s, boards, assists, FG% and TOs are all pretty much bang on league average). His steals leave a bit to be desired but he’s a solid source of efficient scoring and 3s with rebounds at this stage of the draft.

Point of difference: Doesn’t really have one, if you don’t have your eyes on a specific specialist around this point Barnes is worth a look.

Punting Fits: Balanced

Key Observations: Barnes played huge minutes last year (nearly 37) and shot 57% from 2 which was about 7% above his norm. I have adjusted his line accordingly.

103. Gary Trent Jr.

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.161 (105)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.125 (102)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
16.90	2.95	3.29	1.42	1.07	0.27	0.417	15.06	0.780	1.78	0.76

Season Outlook

Trent game back in the trade that saw Norman Powell go to Portland. There is opportunity to step up into a bigger role in toronto this year for one player and Gary might seize the moment. I don’t expect drastic change but he may trend up slightly.

Point of difference: He’s a solid scoring specialist around this point of the draft. Great 3s and a steal on almost no turnovers.

Punting Fits: Punt FG, Balanced

Key Observations: Watch to see if he has an uptick in minutes or role early in preseason.

104. Justin Holiday

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.137 (100)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.085 (109)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
10.49	2.26	3.79	1.72	1.29	0.60	0.410	8.87	0.790	1.21	0.95

Season Outlook

A guy who almost always seems to go undrafted or is forgotten.  If Holiday starts hot there is plenty of opportunity on this team – TJ Warren and Levert are very injury prone so whilst their presence will effect his role, if atleast one of them is out he will have enough minutes to contribute.

Point of difference: A steals specialist who also chips in 3s reliably

Punting Fits: Balanced (Any) (the low FG% is on such low volume it has minimal effect)

Key Observations: He will have a huge opportunity at the start of the year with TJ Warren and Caris Levert out.

105. Mo Bamba

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.180 (115)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.173 (93)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
10.09	1.10	7.50	0.97	0.44	1.67	0.471	8.33	0.685	1.67	1.00

Season Outlook

Mo is a fan favourite and his statline makes him a fantasy favourite too. Just one game in preseason confirmed promising signs last year. He has done a 180 on his career and I think its only a matter of time before he starts in Orlando. He was clearly the better center (vs WCJ) and offers an intriguing diverse statline (Blocks, 3s and Boards).

Point of difference: Unicorn center with 3s, blocks and boards

Punting Fits: Punt Assists, Punt Steals (or double), Balanced (any)

Key Observations: Watch his minutes, the above projection is based on 20 minutes per game, meaning WCJ gets 28. If that split is 22-26 or 24-24 then Bamba skyrockets up the board.

106. TJ Warren

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.033 (62)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.282 (75)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
18.86	1.50	4.17	1.33	1.00	0.54	0.529	14.17	0.815	2.92	1.17

Season Outlook

Injured indefinitely to start the year my assumption is we are looking at about a month until he is back. He is made of glass but provides top 75 numbers when healthy at a minimum. A great efficient scorer he is MPJ-lite 80 picks later.

Point of difference: Ultra efficient scoring with enough volume to positively influence both %s

Punting Fits: Punt assists

Key Observations: Keep an eye out for return dates, if he misses more than a month you’re going to really want an IL spot or weekly lineup sets to stash him

107. Kelly Olynyk

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.097 (91)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.002 (140)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
12.95	1.85	6.53	2.72	0.93	0.54	0.475	9.49	0.815	2.57	1.87

Season Outlook

Olynyk broke out in Houston last year down the stretch and was a useful stretch 5. He will be a good signing for Detroit as the first big off the bench creating a promising tandem with Beef Stew. 

Point of difference: Efficient stretch big who provides small forward numbers from center.

Punting Fits: Balanced (Any)

Key Observations: Watch his minutes, he may actually come off the bench and play equal minutes with Stewart, or next to him as a 4 for stretches of the season

108. Joe Harris

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.168 (109)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.083 (110)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
14.73	2.91	3.96	2.15	0.60	0.26	0.489	10.98	0.785	1.38	1.03

Season Outlook

Joe Harris couldn’t be in a better spot to produce as a 3 point specialist. As we saw last year, he ends up getting the widest open corner 3 looks all game when playing with the Nets big 3. In line for another great year as a specialist.

Point of difference: Efficient 3s specialist

Punting Fits: Punt FT (Fits any build but Punt FT typically needs 3s at this stage and the fact Joe provides nearly 3 a game, with good points on near 50% shooting is elite)

Key Observations: Nothing to note

109. De’Andre Hunter

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.152 (101)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.011 (137)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
18.84	2.07	4.83	1.92	0.75	0.42	0.459	15.00	0.800	3.75	1.33

Season Outlook

Hunter looked like he had claimed status as the Hawks no.2 last year ahead of Collins and BogBog but succumbed to injury and was not the same when he returned. A solid scorer with upside he could blow past this ranking or drop dramatically so there is some level of risk with this pick.

Point of difference: Scoring and upside

Punting Fits: Balanced (Any), Punt Steals, Punt Blocks

Key Observations: Be sure to watch closely in preseason for his minutes and role/

110. Bojan Bogdanovic

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.191 (119)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.064 (116)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
18.49	2.74	3.96	1.89	0.69	0.09	0.456	13.56	0.875	3.88	1.89

Season Outlook

A slightly down year from Boj Bog last year, he came good shooting wise towards the end of the year and hopefully is able to shake the early shoulder injury to provide efficient scoring in 21-22. 

Point of difference: A points and 3s specialist who gives you elite FT impact from the forward spot.

Punting Fits: Any

Key Observations: The shoulder injury shouldn’t affect him in the regular season but check in regularly for updates ahead of your draft.

111. Chuma Okeke

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.126 (97)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.027 (115)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
11.77	1.55	5.00	2.70	1.25	0.55	0.422	11.00	0.780	1.20	1.00

Season Outlook

Frustratingly injured during the preseason where we could get a good read on how the Magic plan to use him this year. I think he ends up starting at the 3 despite being more of a 4. He will get as many minutes at the 4 as are made available as Isaac makes his way back from a leg injury.

Point of difference: Plus Steals with a splash of everything else

Punting Fits: Balanced (Any), Punt FG

Key Observations: Once back from injury watch his minutes compared to Isaac. Chuma compares closely to Tobias Harris and a recent ‘The Athletic’ article discussed how he will be a coach favourite and natural hooper throughout his career.

112. Patrick Williams

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.127 (98)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.013 (135)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
13.47	1.60	5.33	1.78	1.07	0.71	0.478	10.67	0.750	2.22	1.42

Season Outlook

The glue guy in this new look Chicago Bulls Williams should provide a little bit of everything on a very efficient and effective line this year. 

Point of difference: Balanced, efficient do it all guy (exactly the description of him in real life too)

Punting Fits: Balanced (any)

Key Observations: 3s are the key stat to watch here, I would assume he has spent the offseason focusing on catch and shoot corner 3s as he will likely have a lot of opportunities to hit open shots this year, something not currently baked into my projection.

113. Evan Mobley

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.184 (116)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.101 (108)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
11.92	0.41	7.07	1.95	0.65	1.49	0.523	8.58	0.720	3.53	1.57

Season Outlook

The Cavs rookie looked good in his preseason debut providing livewire defense and hustle. I think he is in line to start next to Allen as he did in the first preseason game and should be an interesting fantasy option this year. 

Point of difference: Blocks and defense without FT drag

Punting Fits: Balanced (Any)

Key Observations: Something that will likely take him to the next level, 3s will be something he adds to his game in the future but will likely be missing this year.

114. Jonathan Isaac

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.148 (102)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.114 (105)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
9.96	1.14	5.42	1.08	0.90	1.37	0.447	8.31	0.800	1.73	1.08

Season Outlook

Isaac is a fantasy beast when healthy. We haven’t seen a lot of him healthy though. He should slowly build into the year but will be a headache to own, missing the first little chunk of the season and then I expect back-to-backs as well.

Point of difference: Elite steals and blocks with a triple.

Punting Fits: Punt FG, Balanced (Any)

Key Observations: Watch to see if we get any news about him definitely missing back to backs, that’s an assumption at this point.

115. Nickeil Alexander-Walker

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.181 (115)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.061 (118)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
16.39	2.56	4.39	3.70	1.21	0.60	0.411	15.17	0.715	1.88	2.33

Season Outlook

Hyped as a sleeper this year I am not entirely convinced. He hurts us in both %s and turnovers and doesn’t have the keys to the franchise like KPJ does. He will be most useful in Punt FT builds looking for 3s, scoring and steals.

Point of difference: 3s, scoring and steals.

Punting Fits: Punt FT (can stomach his FG% due to other high end guys, build is also typically low TO)

Key Observations: Garrett Temple started over him in the first preseason match and it seems more likely he will be a 6th man this year – something that suits him.

116. Derrick Favors

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.201 (124)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.155 (96)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
9.18	0.00	7.94	1.10	0.61	1.10	0.635	6.11	0.685	2.08	0.92

Season Outlook

This feels high as I think Roby ends up being the starter in OKC. There are rave reviews coming out on Roby but he’s by far a worse per minute contributor than Favours. I have projected Favors at 22 minutes, something I see as the worst case scenario. If he gets 24 or 26 minutes he will be a steal here.

Point of difference: Boards and Blocks on elite FG%

Punting Fits: Punt FT, Balanced (Low volume FTs)

Key Observations: Watch for the minute split between him and Roby. Favors is the pick of the two to own even if Roby gets more minutes.

117. Danny Green

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.171 (111)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.074 (115)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
9.20	2.40	3.75	1.58	1.13	0.75	0.415	7.58	0.765	0.68	0.98

Season Outlook

Danny Green has been pretty much the same player for about 10 years now. Elite defender who offers us 2+ 3s and above average steals with great out of position blocks on low volume scoring and non existent turnovers.

Point of difference: 3s, a steal and nearly a block from a SG eligible player

Punting Fits: Punt Points, Balanced (Any, assuming you are set in scoring)

Key Observations: I expect Thybulle to begin taking some of his minutes although without Simmons in philly they have both in the lineup.

118. Dorian Finney-Smith

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.163 (107)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.043 (123)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
10.74	1.96	6.03	1.59	0.95	0.56	0.455	8.40	0.735	1.55	0.95

Season Outlook

Came on in the playoffs for Dallas last year I suspect that to continue this year. I think he’s better as a 4 but will be playing the 3 this year for Dallas next to Porzingis and Powell. 

Point of difference: A clean 2 triples, 6 boards and a steal guy.

Punting Fits: Balanced , Punt Assists

Key Observations: See if the move to the 3 effects him at all. We might see less rebounds and a fraction more triples.

119. Scottie Barnes

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.176 (112) 

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): -0.016 (148)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
11.82	1.22	5.79	2.89	1.32	0.72	0.440	10.45	0.675	2.08	1.62

Season Outlook

Scottie 2 Hottie was a diverse beast in his preseason debut. Let’s not go crazy he wont be putting up those numbers every game but for the 2 months that Siakam is out he will be very good. If he produces Nurse won’t hesitate to find minutes for him and this is the type of play that makes grabbing Chris Boucher so risky.

Point of difference: A beautiful all around 7 category contributor. 

Punting Fits: Balanced (all)

Key Observations: FG% and Free throws are rumoured to be an issue and I’ve projected as such but if the splits are say 46% and 72% then we can get really excited.

120. Steven Adams

9 Cat Value (Rank): -0.359 (177)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.115 (97)

Projected Line: 

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
10.34	0.00	7.94	1.44	0.94	0.79	0.610	7.22	0.530	2.89	1.37

Season Outlook

Some people think Adams is a steal here. Others think he is going to be a bust. I am inbetween. I see the argument that with JJJ back and a host of undersized Center options on the roster that Adams may play limited minutes. He’s also not a huge shot blocker so we miss out on value there if that’s what we need in our Punt FT build. But there’s still value here. The projection above is based on 26 minutes which should be easily obtainable. The boards could very well be much higher than this as JJJ isn’t a great rebounder and Adams boards have often been lower simply because he’s been playing with Wesbrook.

Point of difference: A solid play post round 10 for Punt FT teams who went light on bigs.

Punting Fits: Punt FT

Key Observations: See how Memphis plans to use him. If he’s at 28-30 minutes then you’ve got the old Adams back which is top 80 sort of value in Punt FT.