1. Nikola Jokic

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.859 (1)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 1.423 (2)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
26.60	1.23	10.50	8.00	1.30	0.70	0.551	18.00	0.850	6.50	3.30

Season Outlook

The number 1 fantasy player exploded last year, improving across the board to dethrone James Harden as the best player to own in fantasy hoops. There is little reason to suggest he can’t repeat those numbers. One knock is after Jamal Murray went down; Jokic closed the season slightly down on the numbers he had been putting up all year. I don’t personally believe that’s cause for concern; he will give you elite rebounds, elite point-guard-level assists from the centre position, above-average steals, a triple and flawless percentages to build around. His below-average blocks are the key area to address; you can either roll the Joker into a punt block build or look to delay your punting strategy into rounds 2-3 based on who falls your way. In H2H terms, he actually comes in at no.2 (behind Giannis) in value, but his flexibility in build and dominance over Giannis in 9-cat value sees him as my number 1 for 2021.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – A perfectly viable strategy with Jokic is to just go for a 9 category build where you are just above average across the board. This isn’t always possible, but getting Jokic makes it a possibility.

Punt Blocks – Probably my preferred strategy if landing Jokic, pair him with Sabonis and a point guard on the turn and we are in business in all categories bar blocks (TOs will be high but are not something I pay attention to in my drafts unless they are high on a player not providing assists, you should try to maintain a competitive assist to turnover ratio to maximise your win-loss across both categories)

Punt Points – A great 2nd option with Jokic. He provides such a great launchpad in both % categories and across the board. We can make up for his deficiencies in blocks with players not great in scoring.

Punt 3s – Rules out a bit of potential growth for the Joker (see Optimism below) but an excellent build for any first-rounder that offers less than 2 triples per game. The average for players in standard leagues is now about 1.6 per game (up from closer to 1 only a few years ago) and so it’s becoming more and more viable each season to punt this category.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Bam Adebayo (Balanced, Punt Points) – Gets you back to a league average block level and doubles down on out of position assists giving you a substantial holding in one of the most challenging categories to compete in (Assists falls off a cliff late).

Jimmy Butler (Punt Blocks, Punt 3s) – Adds solid points, rebounds, assists to elite steals and percentages. Suppose you want to roll the Joker into an aggressive Punt Blocks or Punt 3s strategy. In that case, Butler is the perfect pairing – yes, Miami added a bunch of talent this year, but I still think Jimmy Butler makes for a great pairing here – he was a late first-rounder last season in 9-cat, he will be close to that again this year in either of these punt strategies.

Kyrie Irving (Punt Blocks) – Kyrie gets a lot of knocks but was a first-round value play in total value last year. Yes, you read that correctly. Total value. So despite missing a ton of games for personal reasons, he was so good in the games he did play he still cracked the top 12. He is an excellent pairing for a Jokic build heading towards the Punt Blocks route thanks to his points, assists, steals, 3s and elite percentages.

Alternatives: Nikola Vucevic (Punt Blocks), Trae Young (Punt Blocks)

Round 3:

Lamelo Ball (Punt Blocks) – Where a punt blocks build may struggle is rebounding. Lamelo provides a perfect complement to a centre that provides out of position assists: a point guard who provides out of position rebounds. He also offers elite assists, some 3s, elite steals and could be a massive break out player this year, launching into the top 20 – or even higher. He will neutralise some of Jokic’s elite efficiency, but I am okay with that for the upside.

Domantas Sabonis (Punt Blocks, Punt 3s, Punt Points) – A dream pick 3 if you landed Bam or Butler in round 2 (assuming you can field this many bigs). You’ll be elite in both assists and rebounds (usually a trade-off) whilst also maintaining good steals and points. However, if you go Bam into Sabonis, you will be behind in points and should look for scoring in rounds 4 & 5 or towards a punt points strategy.

Fred VanVleet (Punt Blocks) – Lil Freddy is a great play in the third when looking to bolster your threes, assists and steals. Most viable if you have taken a big in round 2 and want to sure up the guard categories Jokic gives you. He’s in line for a big year without Lowry in town and could be a first-round player in Punt Blocks. You will need to be very vigilant of your fg% moving forward, which is why I personally prefer Ball and Sabonis.

Alternatives: Michael Porter Jr. (Punt Blocks), Donovan Mitchell (Punt Blocks), Khris Middleton (Punt Blocks), Richaun Holmes (Punt Points), Devin Booker (Punt Blocks)

Optimistic Observations

No Murray will likely lead to even higher usage (touches, greater FG attempts and assists per minute on the court)
He has further scope to expand his range; he shot 38.8% from 3 last year on 3.3 attempts. This level of shooting is compatible with more attempts assuming he can continue to hit at this rate on increased volume; we could see two triples per game from the Joker at some point in his career.

Causes for Concern

Wasnt number 1 down the stretch last year
No Jamal Murray may limit the Nuggets overall production and Jokic’s overall efficiency (assist / turnover ratio & FG%)

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2. Giannis Antetokounmpo

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.625 (6)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 1.433 (1)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
28.28	1.07	12.50	5.75	1.35	1.35	0.571	18.00	0.700	9.52	3.40

Season Outlook

The reigning Finals MVP comes in second fiddle to Jokic on my rankings, but he by no means is a bad way to start your squad in 2021. The Greek Freak is the best overall player when discounting his worst two categories (FT%, TOs). These aren’t a super viable double punt unless you’re banking on getting the few other players who benefit from this pairing (Zion Williamson, Ben Simmons). There isn’t a lot of wriggle room when you draft Giannis; you are punting FT%. This lack of flexibility combined with the fact that someone very close on either side of you in the draft is likely drafting Steph Curry or Luka Doncic and eying the same build is also of concern. But that’s all a lot of negativity for someone I consider the 2nd best player in fantasy – He dominates from the field, offering near best in class fg impact to elite points, boards, steals, blocks and above-average assists.

Punting Strategy

Punt FT: The default position where we are looking to supplement Giannis’ other weaknesses (3s) throughout the draft. Pair Giannis with Zion or a Punt FT bigman in round 2 and then get to work raising your 3s, assists and scoring.

Double Punt 3s & FT: Another build where you can go the Giannis – Zion – Simmons route. However, in this build, we will look to be a little more conservative with our turnovers, preserving a respectable A/TO ratio whilst not being concerned about poor volume 3s (something that punt FT bigs and picks typically struggle to provide). Assists are the key here; you will need to draft some players that don’t seem like good fits but provide a good A/TO ratio.

Double Punt FT & TOs: While Giannis alone isn’t that bad in TOs relative to other first-rounders, there are a couple of players (Zion Williamson & Ben Simmons) who offer great synergy ( doubling down on elite fg impact, poor turnovers and poor FT%). This trifecta (Zion round 2, Simmons round 4 or 5) will leave you elite in most things, requiring just 1 punt ft big man to boost your blocks and boards. You can pretty much just draft 3s, assists and scoring for the rest of your roster without worrying about FG% due to the impact these 3 players provide, FT% or Turnovers.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Zion Williamson (Punt FT, Punt 3s) – The dream pair. Giannis makes up for zion’s shortcomings in defence while we double down on FG impact and FT punting. The combined FG impact here pretty much means we can ignore the category the rest of the way once we take a big or two. The reason this works so well is a shortcoming of Punt FT and Punt 3s is the lack of scoring these builds inherently provide – coming away with nearly 60 points through 2 rounds is about as good of a start as we can hope for.

Rudy Gobert (Punt FT, Punt 3s) – An excellent 1b option if you miss Zion. Elite boards, blocks and FG impact. Not much more to say; he’s a Round 1 player in either Punt FT or Punt 3s, top 5 if you punt both.

Jimmy Butler (Punt 3s) – An exciting alternative in round 2, offering elite steals, boards and assists whilst making up some ground free throw. It would be a long road back in FT% and not a route I recommend, but Jimmy isn’t a bad option even in the double punt as steals can be difficult to find later in drafts.

Alternatives: Lebron James (Punt FT), Russell Westbrook (Punt FT, Punt 3s)

Round 3:

Lamelo Ball (Punt FT) – What a juicy combo to start your draft. Two do it all players who are both fun to watch and bring it at both ends. You have the perfect start to your draft if you can get Lamelo after landing Zion; no start to a draft compares with this combination. Lamelo gives us elite assists, steals with some 3s and extra rebounds.

De’Aaron Fox (Punt FT) – You might think this is going early on Fox; the numbers would back you up. But I think assists are incredibly competitive, and Fox simply won’t be on the board at the end of the 4th when you select next. He gains value in this build and ends up being around par for where you’re drafting him, but you’re getting elite points, assists and steals with scope for additional triples to come. I like the fit in our build, and it sets us up nicely for the rest of the draft. More a consideration if Lamelo is gone as I think I would always take Lamelo before Fox.

Clint Capela (Punt FT, Punt 3s) – An alternative to Gobert if you didn’t manage to draft him, he is usually very close to Gobert in the rankings for this build. I prefer Gobert’s additional blocks, but Capella offers higher scoring and slightly more rebounding. I wouldn’t take both Gobert and Capela as it’s a long way back in scoring, but if you missed out or went with Zion or a high scoring option in R2, then look at Capela.

Optimistic Observations

Room to add extra triples to his already monster stat line
His defensive numbers bounced back last year from an underwhelming 2019 where he averaged just 1 steal and 1 block per 36. Last year both were closer to 1.2, but he has multiple seasons where both numbers were close to or greater than 1.5.

Causes for Concern

As a focal point on offence, it’s common for defensive stats to fade; perhaps steal and blocks being closer to 1 is something that’s going to continue.

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3. James Harden

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.712 (3)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 1.371 (3)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
25.24	3.24	6.75	9.00	1.50	0.75	0.457	16.50	0.865	8.00	4.20

Season Outlook

James Harden is a name we are well accustomed to at the top of the fantasy rankings. In years gone by, he has literally been a cheat code, the floor being what Jokic is now, but the ceiling was just so high – regularly approaching 1.700+ in the H2H scoring system. This was further boosted by the fact the 2 categories that were removed as part of the top 7 calculation were FG and TO, a common double punt. Harden is still an elite start to a fantasy draft, even if he isn’t as good as his stat-padding Houston days. Harden is a slightly more flexible starting option nowadays. He offers best in class free-throw impact with elite assists, scoring, 3s and steals. He also chimes in with above-average rebounding and (if you believe last year’s %) decent field goal percentage for a guard. This means you can viably go for several different builds when drafting James Harden in 2021.

Punting Strategy

Punt TO – Due to Harden’s high assist numbers, he also offers high turnovers. He provides a 3-to-1 A/TO ratio, so punting turnovers isn’t a must, but being able to ignore it in pursuit of high assists, scoring, and our other 6 categories is useful.

Double Punt FG & TO – the vintage Harden build is still viable today – this build is especially relevant if you think Harden will return to his old shooting numbers this year.

Punt Points – Steph Curry historically is considered the pinnacle of the punt FT build due to him providing all the categories you usually lack. James Harden acts the same way to Punt Points. He offers elite assists, which are hard to find in any build; his turnovers are mitigated by the Punt Points natural strength in the category and makes up for shortcomings in 3s. Hardens strong FT impact allows us to make up for some of the later round big men who don’t perform strongly at the line.

Punt Blocks – viable for any guard start in round 1. I don’t think you have a natural disposition to this build by drafting Harden, but if you start with Harden, Butler, Lamelo, for example, you could just opt to punt the category and pick up rebounds via out of position players (Dejounte Murray, Lamelo Ball, Josh Hart).

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Jimmy Butler (Punt blocks, Punt points) – A recurring player for top-of-the-draft, 2nd-round-at-the-turn drafters to target. He doesn’t hit the 3, but best in class steals, to match with above-average boards, assists and %s with relatively low turnovers is an excellent pairing for the punt blocks or punt points builds.

Bam Adebayo (Balanced, Punt points) – Out of position assists, great defensive numbers, clean percentages. Exactly what you want from a round 2 big man to pair with Harden. Look for more points in round 3 to keep a balanced build, or if punting points look to keep %s clean.

Nikola Vucevic (Balanced, Punt Blocks) – Another big who can provide out of position assists with clean percentages. He doesn’t offer the blocks that Bam does, but Vuc is a good alternative if going down the Punt Blocks path. He is also viable in Punt Points, but Butler/Bam would definitely be preferred if going down that route.

Round 3:

Trae Young (Punt FG/TO) – The dream if you’re looking to go the traditional Harden build. Another high-assist-high-turnover player who will give you the best possible start in the hardest to secure category (assists). Trae Young doesn’t help you in steals, but between Harden and Trae, you’re in a respectable position. You’ll need to try to chip away at additional steals throughout the draft with this pairing.

Lamelo Ball (Balanced, Punt Blocks) – If you are reading these player guides in order, you’ll have realised I am also very high on Lamelo at the top of round 3 this year. He just does it all, bar blocks, but even then, he does that well for a point guard. There is just synergy here (Harden also rebounds well for a guard), and you could look to grab Dejounte Murray and other out of position rebounds as you put your team together.

Domantas Sabonis (Punt Blocks, Punt Points) – Similarly to starting with Jokic, Harden into Bam or Butler in round 2 followed by Big Sab in round 3 is a great way to start a draft. You’ll be elite in both assists and rebounds (usually a trade-off) whilst also maintaining good steals and points. However, if you go Bam into Sabonis, you will probably be behind in points and should look for scoring in rounds 4 & 5 or towards the punt points strategy.

Optimistic Observations

Harden becomes the alpha of alphas at the Nets and sees upticks in usage (scoring and assists) compared to last year.
A full training camp and offseason together with KD and Kyrie allows them to Gel and sees better efficiencies in all 3 players numbers this year. Harden has a chance at 10 assists per game if this offence hits on all cylinders.

Causes for Concern

This is a 3 superstar team; there will be some nights Harden defers to Kyrie or KD.
Harden’s numbers dropped last year, and whilst we think that is likely the floor, all 3 missed time in patches. If they’re all healthy, maybe the numbers drop even if things click.
Harden isn’t a great defender; he is better than his lowlights at Houston might suggest, but that steals number may continue to decline as he adapts to playing real defence in pursuit of a ring.

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4. Steph Curry

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.743 (2)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 1.282 (4)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
26.56	4.79	5.00	6.00	1.40	0.20	0.484	18.00	0.910	4.80	2.90

Season Outlook

The first thing I would like to address about Steph Curry is he could very easily be number 1 on this list. Curry and Jokic are the only 2 players I would consider taking with the first overall pick. So why is Steph fourth on this list? Well, he went absolutely ballistic at the end of last season. After the all-star break, he averaged 13.9 three-point attempts per game and hit 43% of them. So 6 per game. I just don’t see this happening again. I’ll probably eat those words. I see a more modest 11 attempts per game from Curry this year, at a 43% clip that translates to just under 4.8 per game. With the rest of Curry’s line, this has him as the 2nd best 9-cat value and the 4th best H2H play in 2021. Curry is more flexible than Giannis, and it’s a complete coin toss between him and Harden this year despite what the numbers say, a lot of the peripherals probably lean Curry’s way, Klay won’t be ready until January; he’s a lone star on a team that still lacks talent compared to a lot of the Western Conference and his light turns green the moment he steps across halfway.

Punting Strategy

Punt FT – Curry has long been the golden first-rounder in the Punt FT build. He offers best in class 3s and scoring with above-average assists and steals paired with great percentages. Punt FT can struggle in scoring, 3s and assists so you can start off on the right foot with Curry, addressing weaknesses and follow up with Zion, Gobert or Capella to set up a great draft.

Punt Blocks – A great pivot for Curry is Punt Blocks, especially when you miss out on the punt FT players aforementioned. You can take punt blocks in a couple of different directions, into Butler for elite steals, or into Vuc or Sabonis for a rebounding anchor which can sometimes be a problem in Punt Block builds.

Balanced – a direction that is viable with Curry, similar to Jokic is a balanced build. Take a big man in round 2 who doesn’t hurt your free throw and you’ll be looking great in all 9 categories. Backing that up with another efficient player in round 3 sets you up to either delay your punt strategy or continue down a 9 category approach.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Zion Williamson (Punt FT) – A shortcoming of Punt FT is the lack of scoring this build naturally provides, Zion offers league-leading scoring potential with league-leading FG impact to get this build off to the right start. Capella is the next stop here (assuming Gobert is gone by R3) to sure up the boards and blocks categories.

Rudy Gobert (Punt FT) – Similar to the Giannis build, if you miss on Zion this is a very adequate 1b option. Elite boards, blocks and FG impact. He’s a round 1 player in Punt FT and an anchor for FG impact, Boards and Blocks.

Jimmy Butler (Punt Blocks) – An interesting alternative in round 2, offering elite steals, assists and free throw with above-average boards. Jimmy would set you up for an elite Punt Blocks build, Curry’s 3s make up for Jimmy’s deficiency in the category and so the synergy is elite. Add a positive FG influence in R3 and you are well on your way

Round 3:

Clint Capela (Punt FT) – An alternative to Gobert if you didn’t manage to draft him, he is usually very close to Gobert in the rankings for this build. I prefer Gobert’s additional blocks but Capela offers higher scoring and slightly more rebounding. I wouldn’t take both Gobert and Capela as it’s a long way back in scoring but if you missed out or went with Zion or a high scoring option in R2 then look at Capela.

Lamelo Ball (Punt FT) – A fun player to own – he may improve his FT this year but if you can get Lamelo after landing Zion you have the perfect start to your draft, Lamelo provides elite assists, steals with some 3s and extra rebounds to pair with Curry. Clean up with a couple of the late-round punt FT big men (Poeltl, Adams, Favors) to secure your boards.

De’Aaron Fox (Punt FT) – You might think this is going early on Fox, the numbers would back you up. But I think assists are extremely competitive and Fox simply won’t be on the board at the end of the 4th when you select next. He gains value in this build and ends up being around par for where you’re drafting him, but you’re getting elite points, assists and steals with scope for additional triples to come. I like the fit in this build and it sets us up nicely for the rest of the draft. More a consideration if Lamelo is gone as I think I would always take Lamelo before Fox.

Optimistic Observations

I could just be wrong about him not going as ballistic this year. There is every chance he doubles down on the approach that saw the dubs climb back into the league play in tournament. If he does – congrats, you’ve got the best player in fantasy.
Klay being back doesn’t hurt Curry, he may lack some volume, but his 3pt and fg% both climb when playing alongside Klay, as do his assists. So whilst Curry’s 30 point days might not continue once Klay is back, he will still be an elite fantasy option.

Causes for Concern

Curry’s assists and steals have began to decline in recent years (he was comfortably 6-7 assists and 1.5+ steals per game between ‘14-18) but in the last 3 seasons those categories look more like 5-6 assists and 1.2+ steals. If this trend continues he could fall towards middle-of-the-first-round value.

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5. Damian Lillard

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.667 (4)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 1.150 (6)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
28.84	4.00	4.30	7.50	1.10	0.27	0.455	20.00	0.910	7.30	2.80

Season Outlook

Dame is considered to be the most reliable, injury-free, H2H play in the first round. He is also an absolute asset in punt steals. He can be known to be a fg drain but I think with the healthy talent Portland has put around him we will see last years 45.1% hold. Dame is an elite source of points, 3s, assists and free throw impact with a near 3-to-1 Assist to Turnover ratio. Assists are hard to come by so starting your draft around one of the best point guards is an excellent start to being competitive. Important to note you may be directly competing with the Harden owner for players as both players lend themselves to punt fg and harden can be used in punt steals too. Plan accordingly, ensure you have a suitable peace of mind at each selection with a plan A, B and C.

Punting Strategy

Punt Steals – I definitely feel most comfortable in punt steals pairing Lillard with a rebounding anchor, that way you have a nice solid base to take best available in the third. I think Vuc or Sabonis are suitable options, doubling up with Trae Young if he is on the board is a nice way to sure up points, 3s, assists, FT% and focus on rebounds throughout the middle rounds. Going Young in R2 leaves you in a bad way in FG%, which is not a category we want to be punting in punt steals so you’ll need to be vigilant of this category moving forward.

Punt Blocks – Similar to a Steph Curry punt blocks you can take punt blocks in a couple of different directions, into Butler for elite steals (something Lillard struggles with), or into Vuc or Sabonis for a rebounding anchor which can sometimes be a problem in Punt Block builds.

Punt FG% – In years gone by this has probably been the go-to build for Lillard owners. At 45% he isn’t the strongest in the category and can be paired with other low FG options such as Trae Young or Fred VanVleet to form a really strong base. You’ll still want to be mid-table in boards so targeting rebounds in the middle and later rounds will be critical here.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Bam Adebayo (Balanced) – A do it all big man to get you back to a solid balanced launchpad. Not a bad way to start, then if Trae Young or FVV falls to you in round 3 you can take them knowing you are in a decent spot in rebounds.

Trae Young (Punt Steals, Punt FG) – Probably the approach I would go. I’m high on Trae Young as a fantasy option in 2021. Yes, he won’t be his 19-20 season, but the upside for him to go off any night is there. The elite assists will win you a very difficult-to-win category, they come with high TOs attached but there’s scope for that to drop as he becomes more comfortable in the NBA. If his steals can improve (still hope given he’s still young) you can at least be average in steals going into R3.

Fred VanVleet (Punt FG) – If I’m being less biased, Lil Freddy is a better option than Trae Young. You get elite steals to compensate, 3s, scoring, assists and FT impact. You also get FVV as the primary ballhandler in Toronto. Nurse plays his starters high minutes, so we should see a close to 36 minute a night FVV as the starting PG. He was top 10 last year in this build and he will be again this year if not higher. If you don’t want to risk double punting, go FVV over Young.

Alternatives: Jimmy Butler (Balanced), Nikola Vucevic (Punt Steals, Punt Blocks, Punt FG)

Round 3:

Domantas Sabonis (Punt Blocks, Punt Steals) – If you went point guard again in round 2 its time to grab some boards. Big Sab will give you out of position assists and solid steals for a big (I’m not convinced they’ll stay as high) to go with elite rebounding and solid %s too.

Julius Randle (Punt FG, Punt Blocks) – About the only scenario where Julius Randle makes sense in the third for me is if you are punting FG or blocks. He is well under par for both categories for a big man. The verdict is still out as to whether last years 3 pt shooting (41.1% on 5.5 attempts) is legit or not. He was previously a career 29.5% shooter from downtown. But if you’re a believer this is a good play to sure up boards, add additional 3s out of position with boards and scoring. He is Joel Embiid lite in the third round.

Donovan Mitchell (Punt FG, Punt Steals, Punt Blocks) – DMitch is a solid option here whichever direction you are going. I would only recommend him if you have previously gone a big in round 2 and want to sure up scoring, throw in a trickle of boards, solid assists, and average steals. The steals are an interesting one, Mitchell was an elite steals guy in his first two years in the league averaging ~1.5. Last two years he has been around 1 per game. So there is scope for this to be a home run if the steals can return.

Alternatives: Michael Porter Jr. (Punt Steals), Chris Paul (Balanced), Lamelo Ball (Punt Blocks, Punt FG), Deandre Ayton (Balanced)

Optimistic Observations

A new head coach may be a breath of fresh air for Lillard, we don’t know what the scheme will be but former NBA star Chauncey Billups will no doubt have Lillard as the primary option for the Blazers in 2021.
I feel like Lillard has another gear we didn’t see last year. A healthy Nurkic will help, they are near unstoppable in the pick and roll. A return to 30+ ppg with 8+ apg is possible.

Causes for Concern

The new head coach is a double-edged sword. There’s also CJ McCollum and Norman Powell on the court and touches will need to go around with a healthy dose of Nurkic.
There are higher upside players on the board. I don’t see a scenario where Lillard ends up no.1 on a per-game basis. He’s a high floor first-rounder.

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6. Karl-Anthony Towns

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.646 (5)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 1.165 (5)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
26.13	2.80	10.53	4.55	0.77	1.21	0.504	18.00	0.850	6.11	3.21

Season Outlook

You could make a case for KAT at 5. In fact, I would probably draft him there unless you really want a point guard in round 1. Unlike Lillard, he has legitimate no.1 overall per-game potential but also has a lower floor than Lillard which is why I have settled him 1 spot behind the Trailblazer. He will have to compete with DRuss, an emerging Anthony Edwards and less so Malik Beasley for touches this year. Previously we had fewer offensive weapons and Thibs playing him huge minutes. But. He is still a monster. He is as complete of a player as Jokic (just not quite as good), he gets above-average assists for a big, steals are light but not terrible for a big, blocks are average for a big man, and he hits nearly 3 triples a game on great percentages.

Punting Strategy

Punt Steals – Similar to the no.5 Dame selection, KAT is not great in the steals category, its one of his worst categories (along with Turnovers). Pair him with Trae in round 2, another big or point guard in round 3 and we are cooking with gas. I wouldn’t necessarily actively go down this path in round 2, stay balanced and then availability in rounds 2, 3 and beyond can dictate a soft punt.

Balanced – Probably how I would look to build early in a KAT draft. There are scenarios where you might be getting KAT at 6, 7 or even 8 in your draft. So you can be picking early enough in round 2 to get a top-end 2nd rounder. Paul George or Jimmy Butler could really balance out your draft. The flexibility of KAT is one of his greatest appeals – while some owners are scrambling to find a useful punt ft option or an ideal complementary player, you can safely take the best available without falling behind.

Punt Points – Similar to James Harden, KAT makes a perfect start for the punt points strategy. He gives a solid anchor in both %s, above-average assists, elite boards, blocks and enough steals. Come back in round 2 for Jimmy butler and we are in business.

Double Punt Assists & Steals – My personal favourite build. Everyone has to overpay for point guards early. Avoid the chaos, let elite players slip to you as everyone reaches to compete in assists and its mini-me category steals.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Trae Young (Punt Steals) – As I said above, I wouldn’t seek out a punt with KAT straight away. But if Trae Young presents himself to you in round 2 I would find it hard not to punt steals as this is a rock-solid starting pair.

Nikola Vucevic (Balanced, Punt Steals, Double Punt Assists & Steals) – another elite big man in round 2 of your draft will have shored up the boards, maintaining strong points and great %s.

Jimmy Butler (Punt Points, Balanced) – If you are going punt points (or balanced) there are few better pairings than Jimmy Buckets in round 2. He will make up for KATs lack of steals and give you everything else bar 3s. Look for scoring in R3 or punt it.

Alternatives: Bam Adebayo (Balanced, Punt Points), Kyrie Irving (Balanced, Punt Points)

Round 3:

Michael Porter Jr. (Punt Steals, Double Punt Assists & Steals) – If you have locked up assists with Trae in R2. MPJ is a great option in R3, he’s going to be big this year. At some point in his career, he has all the tools to be a round one player. He has elite potential in both %s on great volume. Assists and steals are the two categories lacking here but since you’ve landed Trae you will be okay to delay further assist investment until rounds 4 or 5.

Chris Paul (Balanced, Punt Points) – If you go big in round 2, CP3 makes a nice balanced choice in round 3. He is perennially underrated. He always goes later than he should. He pretty much always puts up late round 2 value despite being ranked in round 3 or 4 in the preseason. He is as clean as they come, great %s, best in the business assist to turnover ratio and helps us overcome KATs steal deficiency.

Deandre Ayton (Balanced, Punt Steals, Punt Points, Double Punt Assists & Steals) – A great fit for any of the KAT builds. He brings elite FG impact, doesn’t hurt FT%, elite boards. A great pick if you went Trae in R2 and want to establish dominance in boards ahead of going smalls in R4 or R5.

Alternatives: Donovan Mitchell (Balanced), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Balanced)

Optimistic Observations

Top 3 upside, can be a complete player. More talent around him might just make his line more efficient
Last year was KATs worst 2 point shooting % of his career. He should bounce back and if he gets back to around 58% that alone will go a long way to put him close to top 3.
In his first 4 seasons in the league, he was the most durable top pick. He has had a few injuries last two years but similar to how Steph Curry fixed his durability concerns just before entering his prime, I expect the same from KAT.

Causes for Concern

Durability in the last two seasons has been a major concern.
The Timberwolves ability to be competitive is a concern, if they fall out of contention in the East it makes it an easier decision to shut key players down early (fantasy playoffs)

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7. Luka Doncic

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.386 (16)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 1.081 (7)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
30.35	3.14	9.20	9.20	1.08	0.46	0.476	21.80	0.750	8.60	4.55

Season Outlook

Luka Doncic is an interesting player in fantasy. He has these notable floors in his fantasy game (like lack of defence) that he gets bashed for probably more than he should. He also is a FT liability which pushes him towards a free throw punt. However with Luka, one of the best assets in this build (Zion) isn’t a good fit as they both don’t combine for enough defensive input. I like to think of Luka as a worse Giannis. However, there’s probably more to him than that. He is elite in both boards and the assists category, he’s better in swipes and swats than people give him credit for and his fg% is actually strong considering he gets you 3 triples a game. His free throw percentage is an interesting one, similar to LeBron he is a better shooter than his FT% indicates and I think there’s potential that he gets close to league average (78.5%) at some point in his career something that would make him a top 3 or 4 asset in fantasy.

Punting Strategy

Punt FT – Probably the default way to go with Luka, pair him with a Punt FT big man who can bring the blocks and then get some scoring in the third.

Punt Blocks – The only counting stat Luka lacks. Pair him with favourable punt block big men in round 2 and 3 and then quickly look to find elite sources of FT impact, assists and steals to balance your build.

Efficiency Triple Punt (FG, FT, TO) – I don’t love this build but it does make things easy in some ways, you’ll still win fg some weeks, FT% may be a bit harder to win but I dare say you’ll get there some weeks. Where this build really comes in is in the middle and late rounds where a lot of players have noticeable deficiencies in one or two of these categories, you can ignore that and address any holes in your counting stats without worry.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Rudy Gobert (Punt FT) – A staple of the punt free throw build in round 2. Not too much to say, elite boards and blocks. You’ll be looking for scoring, assists and steals in rounds 3, 4 and 5.

Russell Westbrook (Efficiency Triple Punt (FG, FT, TO)) – as I said above, this isn’t my favourite build, but it is a fun one. There will be some ridiculous triple-doubles between Westbrook and Doncic this year owning both, potentially with Lamelo in round 3 would be flat out unfair.

Nikola Vucevic (Punt Blocks) – A great 2nd round pick in punt blocks. Best case he blocks 1 per game for a centre which is on the low end, offers great boards, points, free throw %, some 3s and nearly a steal a game.

Round 3:

Lamelo Ball (Punt FT, Punt Blocks, Efficiency Triple Punt (FG, FT, TO)) – A great next step in any of Luka’s builds, if you went Luka early in round one Lamelo is a great combination. I expect Lamelos FG/FT/TOs to all improve in 21/22 but they might not, meaning we can roll him into any of these builds for his assists, steals, triples and scoring.

Clint Capela (Punt FT) – If you missed out on a Punt FT big man in round 2, come back for Capella in round 3. He’s elite in this build, offers elite boards, blocks and fg%.

Domantas Sabonis (Punt Blocks) – Luka, Vucevic, Sabonis is a sweet sweet start to your draft. You are probably set in rebounds and strong in fg% (the two biggest risks in a punt block build) and still elite in points (~70ppg) through 3 rounds. Look for free throw impact and steals in the middle rounds.

Optimistic Observations

Free throw could start to trend upwards leading to more balanced build opportunities
Only played 34 minutes per game, I think fitness will be a key offseason focus for Doncic so he can be on the court longer as his MVP window is opening. 36+ minutes could spell top 4 numbers even without a free throw gain

Causes for Concern

His free throw actually regressed last year and you would think if it doesnt show improvement in year 4 it may never get there

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8. Kevin Durant

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.612 (7)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 1.056 (8)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
25.37	2.15	7.06	5.13	0.78	1.28	0.519	17.14	0.885	6.14	2.84

Season Outlook

Kevin Durant is a well-balanced fantasy option, you get first-round scoring, 3s, boards, assists, and blocks. Similar to KAT he is under in steals which makes him an excellent fit for punt steals or even double punt assist and steals. You know what you’re getting with KD, there isn’t a lot of wriggle room up or down from his projected line. Its been 4 years since he averaged over a steal a game, so we shouldn’t expect growth there, he shot a career-high 45% from 3 last year which I expect to fall back towards career average 38.4%. Rest of the numbers should hold.

Punting Strategy

Punt Steals – Similar to Dame and KAT, KD is not great in the steals category, its one of his worst categories. Pair him with Trae in round 2 or a big man. Like with Kat, I wouldn’t necessarily actively go down this path in round 2, stay balanced and then availability in rounds 2, 3 and beyond can dictate a soft punt.

Double Punt Assists & Steals – My favourite punting strategy, particularly late in the first round. If I am 7th or later this is what I am looking at. Almost all the players late in the first suit this build. KD is probably the most. His elite %s give us a great foothold, we get good boards and blocks from the small forward slot and can wait and see if we can grab assists in round 2 or just let them slide. I was recently in a draft where KD fell to me at pick 11 setting up a dream combo with PG13.

Punt Points – A solid path to take. Especially since we are starting to get into the second half of fantasy drafts where you need to get creative to compete with those drafting at the top of the first round. No build flips the rankings on their head like punt points meaning we can snipe players a round or 2 earlier than other people are thinking about them and still come out with good value.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Paul George (Punt Steals, Double Punt Assists & Steals) – You will see I actually rank him inside the first-round picks, but in most fantasy platforms you can get him at the start of the second. His steals have fallen off in recent years but I expect to see them come back a little bit, still, he can be used in punt steals or punt assists builds very effectively. A nice pair with KD which gives you a strong start in all categories, KDs FG partially makes up for Paul George lacklustre performance there, and PG’s 3s do the same for KD in that category.

Trae Young (Punt Steals) – A name that’s also recurring a lot, Trae Young is just the best player on the board in rounds 2/3 that boosts assists while being weak in 3s. KD can offset Trae’s low end shooting and give you a handful of blocks that Trae lacks too making KD into Trae into a Boards and Blocks option in round 3 a great balanced start for Punt steals.

Nikola Vucevic (Punt Steals, Double Punt Assists & Steals, Balanced) – Vuc is a great pairing with KD. You get strong boards, a touch of assists, steals and blocks with strong percentages. Its a great fall back option if you missed out on George or Young.

Alternatives: Jimmy Butler (Balanced, Punt Points), Anthony Davis (Double Punt Assists & Steals)

Round 3:

Michael Porter Jr. (Punt Steals, Double Punt Assists & Steals) – I am high on this kid. I think pairing him with KD is securing KD and KD lite. He is a scoring gem with a natural scoring touch capable of leading the league in ppg one day. He rebounds well, gets knocked for his lack of defensive stats but is still providing us with 1.6 combined swats and swipes which is not bad by any means. I love him in R3 for this build if you can get him.

Deandre Ayton (Punt Steals, Double Punt Assists & Steals, Punt Points) – A wise move if you’ve landed Trae Young or Paul George in R2. His scoring disappeared last year but I expect it to slowly bounce back as they get him more involved. He is a great FG anchor that won’t hurt your FT%. Splash in boards and blocks and we are good to go.

Kristaps Porzingis (Punt Steals, Double Punt Assists & Steals) – If you take Paul George or Trae Young in R2 Porzingis isn’t the best option in R3. He just doesn’t give us the FG impact we need to counteract PG or Trae. I would strongly prefer Ayton or Rich Holmes in that scenario. But if you landed Vuc, Anthony Davis or even reached on MPJ and want to keep it rolling in punt steals or the double punt then Porzingis is a great option.

Alternatives: Richaun Holmes (Double Punt Assists & Steals), Devin Booker (Punt steals, Balanced), Khris Middleton (Punt steals, Balanced),

Optimistic Observations

3 Point percentage might be legitimate meaning there is upside from my projection
Steals could come back to previous levels in a lean squad that will lean on KD for defensive presence.

Causes for Concern

3 point percentage returning to normal would spell a decline in points
At 33 we are approaching the end of KDs prime and injuries may be more likely to occur from this season onwards

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9. Paul George

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.506 (10)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.962 (10)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
25.43	3.40	6.65	4.58	1.56	0.41	0.444	19.00	0.865	5.96	2.93

Season Outlook

This is probably the first shock on the board. Most fantasy sites have Paul George as a middle of the second round player. I disagree, but with that said, if you are picking 11th or 12th in standard drafts you should be able to pick up Playoff P at the top of round 2. Kawhi Leonard is out of the picture in 21-22, and when Paul George has played without Kawhi Leonard since the 2020 season he has averaged 4 more points per game; taking 2.5 extra shots and 2 extra free throw attempts per game. PG13s steals have declined since joining the Clippers but I think there’s still hope we see a bounce back towards his old levels, we may not see over 2 per game again but a return to something closer to his career average (1.7) is possible. As you can see in the projected line, elite triples, above-average boards, assists, steals, with elite free throw impact. I think last years FG% (46%) was an outlier (he shot a career-high 51% from two, usually 45-48%, whilst also shooting 0.1% off a career-high from 3, 41.1%) but I don’t think that is a huge deal considering the rest of the line.

Punting Strategy

Punt FG%

Punt Assists

Punt Blocks

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Brad Beal (Punt Blocks) – A player who is largely a bit overhyped this year. Yes, Westbrook is gone, but we have seen Beal without the dominant ball-handler before, and it wasn’t that much different. He averaged 6.1 assists per game that season to go with his elite scoring, above-average steals, and elite %s. A great pick with Paul George to double down on his strengths. Pair with a Punt Block big in round 3 or 4.

Trae Young (Punt FG, Punt Blocks) – It’s a toss-up between Trae Young and FVV as to who the better consolation prize is if you miss Beal. I think you live dangerously close to a triple punt if you choose Trae in R2, his steals are weak, and if PG13 doesn’t bounce back, you won’t be in a strong position in the category. That said, elite assists are very difficult to find, and Trae is a lock to be amongst the lead leaders. He matches that with elite points, 3s and free throw impact.

Fred VanVleet (Punt FG, Punt Blocks) – I have FVV as a round 3 guy above, and in some drafts, especially for early first-round picks, he may get to you there. In either Punt FG or Punt Blocks with a late first-rounder, I have no concerns reaching for him; you are not getting him at the back end of the third. FVV locks in elite steals, assists and 3s. If you want to avoid a double punt, look to snag Porzingis in R3 to shore up blocks.

Alternatives: Bam Adebayo (Balanced), Nikola Vucevic (Punt Blocks)

Round 3:

Michael Porter Jr. (Punt Blocks, Punt Assists) – As I said in the KD section, I am high on this kid. I think pairing him with PG13 is an excellent idea, although probably hard to pull off as he would have to slip to you in the 30s. MPJ has a natural scoring touch capable of leading the league in ppg one day. He rebounds well, gets knocked for his lack of defensive stats but is still providing us with 1.6 combined swats and swipes, which is not bad by any means. I love him in R3 for either build if you can get him.

Kristaps Porzingis (Punt FG, Punt Assists) – If you went Trae or FVV in R2, this is where I would be going. FG% is a category that can be a weakness for Porzingis, but he will make up for any block deficiency we have to date and can be a nice 20-10-2 big who won’t get us behind in 3s. Sign me up.

Donovan Mitchell (Punt FG, Punt Blocks) – DMitch is a solid option here, whichever direction you are going. Spida will help you shore up scoring, throwing in a trickle of boards, solid assists, and average steals. The steals are interesting; Mitchell was an elite steals guy in his first two years in the league, averaging ~1.5. Last two years, he has been around 1 per game. So there is scope for this to be a home run if the steals can return.

Optimistic Observations

Steals could really come back – I have baked in a modest increase of 0.4 per game (1.6 spg), but if he averaged 1.8+, I wouldn’t at all be surprised.
I have gone for a more career average FG%, but if last years numbers hold, he will be even more valuable.

Causes for Concern

Despite my optimism, the need for a more prominent offensive role combined with already declining steals isn’t usually a recipe for an increase.
We are ranking Paul George higher because of a perceived increase in role and stats across the board, backed up by a reasonably small sample size.

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10. Joel Embiid

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.551 (9)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 1.003 (9)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
26.74	1.23	12.25	3.06	0.88	1.40	0.498	17.50	0.825	9.80	3.15

Season Outlook

10 feels really low for a player who can be right up there with the very best on a per-game basis. But when you have a player who consistently misses games every year, we have to discount him; we can almost bank on it that Embiid misses 10-15 games this season. I’ve only knocked him down 1 spot vs the numbers, but you could also put him behind the following 2 names on the list. He will get you top draw rebounds, decent assists, good defensive numbers, and his percentages came together last year. I am a little sceptical of his rise to 37.7% from 3; I have modelled slight regression here, from 2 and the line. This line might be slightly under depending on how many minutes Joel plays, but when you have a guy who consistently breaks down, playing him more minutes doesn’t seem like a great idea.

Punting Strategy

Double Punt FG & TO – Traditionally, Joel Embiid was a ~48% shooter from the field. This meant he was below average for a centre in the NBA and an excellent fit for the Punt FG or Double Punt FG / TO. I still think he fits here, we could see regression from the field, and his turnovers will still be obnoxiously high.

Punt Steals – If you take any player in the first who isn’t average over 1 steal per game, they tend to be a fit for punt steals. I don’t think this is the strongest direction to go with Embiid, but it can sometimes be where you end up after 4-5 rounds. Don’t make a definitive decision to roll Embiid into this build, maintain balance and then if steals just haven’t found their way on your team by the middle rounds, it’s okay to punt it.

Double Punt Assists & Steals – My favourite punting strategy, particularly late in the first round. If I am 7th or later this is what I am looking at. Almost all the players late in the first suit this build. Embiid’s complete line (bar steals and assists) are an excellent starting point for this build, we can wait and see if we can grab assists in round 2 or just let them slide.

Punt 3s – The league average for 3 pointers among draftable players is ~1.6 per game. Whilst Embiid provides out of position 3s he is still below average, and you could comfortably proceed with him as your centrepiece in this build while discounting 3s from future players lines. This wouldn’t be a route I would go with Embiid, but it is viable.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Paul George (Punt Assists, Double Punt Assists & Steals, Punt FG) – His steals have fallen off in recent years but I expect to see them come back a little bit. Still, he can be used in punt steals or punt assists builds very effectively. A nice pair with Embiid which gives you a strong start in all categories, if Embiid’s FG holds up it will partially make up for Paul George’s lacklustre performance there, and PG’s 3s do the same for Embiid.

Kyrie Irving (Balanced) – Kyrie gets a lot of knocks but was a first-round value play in total value last year. So despite missing a ton of games for personal reasons, he was so good in the games he did play he still cracked the top 12. He is an excellent pairing for Embiid, heading towards thanks to his points, assists, steals, 3s and elite percentages giving you a really balanced opening pair. The downside here is that the risk of lost time between the two will be hard to stomach for most.

Anthony Davis (Balanced, Punt 3s) – Another high-risk-high-reward opening pair. He is another player who might fall somewhat due to fears of missed time. His biggest risk category this season is rebounds with the arrival of Westbrook. Partnering him with Embiid is a good way to not worry about that and enjoy top 5 upside.

Alternatives: Jimmy Butler (Punt 3s), Trae Young (Double Punt FG & TO), Fred VanVleet (Double Punt FG & TO)

Round 3:

Kristaps Porzingis (Punt Steals, Double Punt Assists & Steals) – KP is a great asset in either of these builds. He carries some risk, he disappeared in the playoffs for Dallas and there have been rumours of them moving on from him in pursuit of the ideal pieces to put around Doncic. I am not buying that, KP has 20-10-2 potential with triples. Unicorn.

Donovan Mitchell (Double Punt FG & TO) – If you’ve gone a big in Round 2, an excellent way to get a handful of guard stats and elite scoring is Donovan Mitchell. He has steals upside but hasn’t shown us the 1.5 spg version of himself since his rookie and sophomore years.

Christian Wood (Punt Steals, Double Punt Assists & Steals) – Another good building block in these builds. Wood took off last year but battled a lot of injuries which derailed his Most Improved Player chances. He is an elite scorer, theres 20 and 10 potential here if he starts at centre. I am hearing hes going to spend most of his time at the 4 – good for his scoring, bad for his boards.

Alternatives: Devin Booker (Punt Steals), Richaun Holmes (Punt 3s), John Collins (Punt Steals)

Optimistic Observations

If Embiid plays even close to an entire season, most fantasy analysts will have him in the top 5 next year. He has legitimate no.1 overall potential if he stays healthy and plays more minutes.
Room for growth in the 3 point department.

Causes for Concern

Injuries. Missing 10-15 games in a season drops you back to top 30 in the total value rankings.

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11. Jayson Tatum

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.475 (12)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.893 (13)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
26.10	3.04	7.35	4.75	1.25	0.80	0.444	20.50	0.845	5.75	2.68

Season Outlook

Tatum is a lot like Paul George, they are very similar players. For me, Tatum is just a slightly less good version of PG13. He has more upside from the field I think, theres untapped potential in his game, there’s elements that could jump out this year, but overall I think I like PG13. In fantasy drafts, you’re going to be taking Tatum where I have PG13 ranked, and PG13 at the top of the 2nd round. I think Tatum has a decentchance to crack 5 assists this year, I hope he improves his blocks and demonstrates a FG% around 48%. But that is a lot to hope for. Overall I would consider Tatum from pick 9 onwards, he doesn’t carry the injury risk that Embiid or AD do and he’s not in his 30s like KD and PG13. In terms of strategy the builds will be very similar to Paul George with the exception of punt blocks.

Punting Strategy

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Brad Beal (Balanced) – Westbrook is gone and we have seen Beal without the dominant ball-handler before, and it wasn’t that much different. He was a first-rounder that season and averaged 6.1 assists per game to go with his elite scoring, above-average steals, and elite %s. A great pick with Tatum. Pair with a high FG impact, swatting big man in round 3.

Paul George (Punt FG) – PG13 appears in a lot of my early pairings for later round picks. Probably because I have him rated as a first-rounder. He’s an elite fit in punt FG. I would probably look to add assists and a rebounder in round 3 and 4. Think DMitch and Porzingis.

Fred VanVleet (Punt FG) – I have FVV as a round 3 guy above, and in some drafts, especially for early first-round picks, he may get to you there. In Punt FG with a late first-rounder, I have no concerns reaching for him; you are not getting him at the back end of the third. FVV locks in elite steals, assists and 3s. If you want to avoid a double punt, look to snag Porzingis in R3 to shore up blocks.

Alternatives: Bam Adebayo (Balanced), Nikola Vucevic (Balanced), Trae Young (Punt FG)

Round 3:

Michael Porter Jr. (Punt Assists) – As I said in the KD section, I am high on this kid. I think pairing him with PG13 is an excellent idea and by extension pairing him with Tatum is also a great idea. Hard to pull off as he would have to slip to you in the 30s. MPJ has a natural scoring touch capable of leading the league in ppg one day. He rebounds well, gets knocked for his lack of defensive stats but is still providing us with 1.6 combined swats and swipes, which is not bad by any means. I love him in R3 for either build if you can get him.

Optimistic Observations

Durable, still young and yet to hit his prime where we see him in final form.
Has upside from my projections in Points, FG%, Assists and Blocks

Causes for Concern

Bit of an unknown situation with a new head coach

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12. Anthony Davis

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.584 (8)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.930 (12)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
24.20	1.02	7.75	2.75	1.35	2.00	0.502	17.50	0.800	7.00	2.25

Season Outlook

AD had an injury-affected down year last year. Add Westbrook to the equation this year and it makes things really interesting for the once top-3 lock. I think we do get a bounce-back year for Davis. We just won’t get the rebounds I thought we would get before they announced the Westbrook trade. There’s also injury concerns, Davis has struggled to play close to a full season in the last 3 years. But when healthy he is a beast. He gives us everything we want from a big man except boards. Efficient scoring, a triple, nearly 3 assists, steals and blocks with great FT impact. His free throw and fg could both prove to be higher than this playing with Westbrook. Westbrook has two key effects on big men, he eats up about 2 of their boards per game, and tends to have a drastic effect on their fg% as opposing defences are drawn to Russ’s penetration. I haven’t baked too much of that fg% into ADs projection as there’s a chance he continues to be more perimeter-oriented with a traditional centre alongside him.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – AD is another player who is complete, he doesn’t hurt you in any category. If you can get enough assists on your team without hurting your %s balanced is a viable option when building around AD.

Punt Assists – again, my preferred way to go late in the first round. AD isn’t a bad provider of Assists, but as far as first-round picks go he’s not good. Grab another big man or wing to go with him at the first round turn and you are fit and firing in Punt Assists. It’s not that a player needs to be bad in assists, it’s just we aren’t ever reaching on the high assist point guards who often go earlier than they should as other teams attempt to compete in the category.

Punt Points – another great way to go at the back end of the first round. AD gives you everything in this build but last year his scoring really dried up. If that doesn’t bounce back then you’ve got yourself an elite anchor in 6-7 of the other categories. Assists and 3s will be the issue and you should target the assists early and often. CP3 is the dream in round 3 if he slips.

Punt 3s – AD could expand his range some more this year playing at the 4 with westbrook in the team. In that scenario this wouldn’t be an ideal build. If he maintains 1 per game (which isn’t bad for a big) then this is a viable direction to go. Pair him with Butler in round 2 for a dream start.

Early Pairings

Round 2:

Bradley Beal (Balanced) – As I have said, punting points with AD is viable cos he is a bit light on in that department compared to other first-round picks. Enter Brad Beal in round 2 to take away all those problems. Beal will be close to the league lead in points again in 21-22 and should throw in some additional assists that will make this a great second-round selection for a balanced build. You could easily turn this into a punt assist build still if assists don’t present themself to you in the draft.

Paul George (Punt Assists) – If George is there at the turn its hard to take anybody else. He just has so much upside this season with no Kawhi and is a fantastic option in punt assist for his 3s, points and free throw %. There is scope for his steals to bounce back too which makes him a brilliant option.

Jimmy Butler (Punt 3s, Punt Points) – An elite player in either of these builds. You lock yourself in to at least one of these two punts by taking Jimmy (it’s super viable to punt both) but it’s a great way to go. Punt Points and its cousin punt 3s aren’t typical punt strategies, and its their uniqueness that makes them super effective. Not to mention punt points has the highest upside of any punt strategy, it literally flips the draft board on its head.

Round 3:

Kristaps Porzingis (Punt Assists) – Porzingis is a great fit in punt assists, he helps offset the natural disposition we have in scoring and 3s whilst still giving us the stats we want to be strong in – rebounds and blocks. If you went Paul George in round 2 you’ll want to be cautious of your FG%, perhaps looking for Rich Holmes or John Collins early in round 4.

Richaun Holmes (Balanced, Punt Assists, Punt 3s, Punt Points) – If you fancy another big man who is just flawless % wise. The Mansion is the pick for you. He doesn’t score a lot compared to other players around this spot so Punt Points is probably the no.1 reason you’re selecting him here, but he fits the other builds nicely. I would compensate with Brandon Ingram whichever elite scorer is still left in Round 4 if you’re not looking to punt points.

Chris Paul (Balanced, Punt Points, Punt 3s) – The old man who doesn’t seem to age, CP3 is a steal that seems to fall in every draft I see. He recently went as late as 42 in one of the more competitive leagues I am in. He’s great value with AD, will help to relieve our shortage in assists and give us steals and clean %s to go with it. Like Rich Holmes, you’ll want to focus on scoring in the following picks if you aren’t planning to punt it.

Alternatives: Christian Wood (Punt Assists, Balanced), John Collins (Punt Assists), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Punt Assists), Brandon Ingram (Balanced)

Optimistic Observations

There is definitely room for %s and defence to grow in my projections which could push him into the top 5 on a per-game basis.
I’m hopeful Lakers run more small ball with AD at the 5, bron at the 4 and Westbrook penetrating, this will be great for ADs FG% and defensive numbers.

Causes for Concern

Not the most durable player, but you’ll be hard-pressed to select two durable players at the back end of the first turn.
Westbrook factor looms large – if AD averaged in the high 6’s in boards this year I wouldn’t be that shocked.

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13. Bradley Beal

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.412 (16)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.865 (15)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
30.90	2.63	4.50	5.75	1.15	0.40	0.468	23.00	0.865	7.80	3.30

Season Outlook

Beal is someone a lot of people are going a bit early this year due to his gaudy points number and the departure of Westbrook. I do think his assists will come back to nearly the 6.1 we saw in 19-20. This Wizards team does have Spencer Dinwiddie and a host of other players the team has drafted and received from the Lakers. It will be interesting to see which pieces feature in the starting lineup but I expect it will be Gafford, Kuzma, Caldwell Pope, Beal and Dinwiddie. This will be a great lineup for Beal who will have great spacing compared to other years which could prove my assist numbers to be on the low end. A great pick here at the end of the first or on the turn, especially if Paul George is already gone.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – As with a lot of players in round 1, it isn’t essential to punt anything. You are reasonably open and it’s perfectly okay to delay your punt until the end of rounds 3, 4, 5 or potentially later.

Punt Blocks – The only category Beal doesn’t contribute is blocks. Run smalls, or pick up Vucevic in R2 (assuming you’ve taken Beal around pick 9 or 10) and you’re in a solid spot. Look for a fallen CP3 in R3 and we are cooking.

Punt TO – Another viable direction, particularly if you went with a Beal and Embiid opener. Both players don’t have great A/TO ratios so you’ll want to just punt turnovers and grab as many assists as you can get your hands on to ensure you’re splitting these categories each week.

Early Pairings

Round 1/2:

Joel Embiid (Punt TOs) – A pretty elite way to start your draft. You can chase assists in the middle rounds without worrying about your turnovers as they are a punt anyway. Grab a point guard in round 3 with a swatting big man before grabbing all the assists you can.

Paul George (Balanced, Punt Blocks) – Despite having him in my top 10, in most fantasy platforms you can get him at the start of the second. His steals have fallen off in recent years but I expect to see them come back a little bit, still, he can be used in punt assists builds very effectively but will shine in Balanced or Punt Blocks builds alongside Beal. Whilst not as nice a pairing as some due to FG% becoming a risk, PG13 forms a nice pair with Beal giving you a strong start in all categories bar FG% and Blocks.

Anthony Davis (Balanced) – As I have said above, AD is a bit light on points compared to other first-round / top-of-the-second round picks. Pair him with Beal to take away all those problems. AD gives you all the defence you’re lacking in Beals line, boosting combined steals to above average, blocks to above average and giving you a sprinkle of boards, assists, 3s and points with great percentages. You could easily turn this into a punt assist build if assists don’t present themself to you in the draft.

Alternatives: Nikola Vucevic (Punt Blocks), Trae Young (Punt Blocks), Bam Adebayo (Balanced)

Round 3:

Kristaps Porzingis (Balanced) – One of my favourite picks for late first-rounders to target in round 3. An elite source of blocks, boards and points with 3s thrown in. A great fit alongside Beal.

Khris Middleton (Punt Blocks) – Punt blocks has an issue with rebounds and fg%. Whilst most of the big men around here gain a lot of their value from blocks, they are all draftable here anyway. If you want to go for another player who directly benefits from this build though, Khris Middleton is the man you want. He will keep your FG high as a wing and that’s gold in this build.

Chris Paul (Punt Blocks) – The holy grail if he slips to you here. Beal compensates for CP3s low scoring and CP3 can give you an elite assist-to-turnover ratio that will leave you in a great spot in both categories. If he is here and you didn’t grab blocks with Beal at the start of the draft, he is a must.

Alternatives: Brandon Ingram (Balanced, Punt Blocks), John Collins (Balanced)

Optimistic Observations

Assists could be higher than I projected, especially with the additional spacing in this new look Wizards team
I have peeled his %s back to the last 4 year averages, with extra spacing and more talent around him this may not be the right call by me

Causes for Concern

There is more talent, to win games the Wizards may spread it around more leading to a drop in usage for Beal. (I don’t really expect this but it’s something to watch for)

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14. Jimmy Butler

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.500 (11)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.862 (16)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
19.89	0.64	6.75	6.51	1.86	0.47	0.461	13.49	0.850	8.00	2.10

Season Outlook

Butler is one of the more underappreciated fantasy assets. He isn’t glamorous, he’s not a huge points guy and there’s nothing about his line that truly jumps off the page apart from his steals. But he’s damn good in the right builds. He was a top 10 player overall last year, I see some regression back towards the 19-20 version of Butler in 20-21. Last year he posted a career-high 2P% (53.5%) which I think will regress somewhat, back towards 50%. The addition of Lowry as a true point guard will mean at times Butler will find himself out on the perimeter again when Lowry initiates the offence, decreasing Butler’s point forward post-ups and point guard initiations. I think for this reason his assists trail off slightly and his 3 point attempts will climb slightly, both things that hurt Butler’s value (he shoots high 20%s from 3 these days). The steals should be there, the clean FT% should be there and the excellent A/TO ratio should also be there. Butler is someone people sleep on a lot so I think there is a great opportunity to get him towards the end of the second half.

Punting Strategy

Punt Points – A high potential build, no punt strategy flips the board on its hard like punt points. Butler is a fantastic option in punt points. He has clean percentages, great ft impact, great assists, boards and steals. He is light on 3s, something you need to be vigilant of if you don’t want to double punt.

Punt 3s – Just like its big brother build punt points, Punt 3s is a great build. It’s uncommon which makes it effective as you won’t be competing for the same players. Its not as high potential as punt points but it is effective, and as the league average 3s rises higher and higher (1.6+ per player now up from under 1 just a few years ago)

Punt Blocks – Like most players that aren’t bigs/swatters, punt blocks is a high floor way you can build. It’s not something you necessarily have to start the draft with it in mind. You can just pivot to it when shot-blockers haven’t found their way onto your team.

Double Punt Points & 3s – This is a gem of a build one of my close friends showed me this year which is incredibly easy to draft around (you can reach on players 1 round or 2 ahead of their draft rank and still come out with the best squad overall). It’s probably not a strategy for beginners, but if you’re comfortable with punting, this strategy could destroy your league. Butler is the dream round 2 player in this build, a perfect option if you went one of the early-mid first-round bigs or even if you went Anthony Davis late in round 1.

Early Pairings

Round 1/2:

Jokic, Curry, Harden, KAT, Lillard – early-mid first-rounders are great fits with Butler, Curry/Harden/Lillard can compensate for the lack of 3s and make a good punt block fit. Jokic/KAT makes a good punt points option as a balanced pick. Grab butler at the later half of the first (where he seems to be slipping to) for a great start to your draft

Anthony Davis (Punt 3s, Punt Points) – a decent option if you’re high enough on Butler to take him early in the 2nd. Butler gives you a solid out of position assists option in this build while ADs blocks give you a plus-start there. A point guard in round 3 for a great start.

Bradley Beal (Punt Blocks) – if you nab beal in round 1, butler makes for a great start in the punt blocks build. This build is naturally higher in 3s so you’ll tend to pick up a lot of 3s throughout the middle rounds meaning Butlers lack of them is not the end of the world.

Round 3:

Damontas Sabonis (Punt Blocks) – Lets say you have team that consists of say, Dame Lillard and Butler through two picks and Sabonis is there in R3. You just hit the jackpot, you’ll be covered in every category, you can go for 3s, assists and some points in round 4 or 5.

Chris Paul (Punt Blocks, Punt Points, Punt 3s or Double Punt Points & 3s) – Pretty much whichever build you opt for CP3 will fit great alongside Butler. You have an incredible start to be competitive in both assists and turnovers. I think the concern here is if you don’t want to punt both points and blocks, or points and 3s, then how will you rebuild the other category. A shot blocker in R1 and 4 will be key if you want to punt 3s, but you also need to chase scoring, can be better to just punt both in this scenario.

Richaun Holmes (Punt Points, Punt 3s) – He will probably be available in a lot of drafts in round 4 but he is good enough in this build to take late in round 3. He provides elite %s, boards, blocks and low turnovers.

Optimistic Observations

At 32 not much will change for Jimmy Butler, less will run through him this year but he is the heart and soul of this Heat team.
He is one of the very few players who you can reliably bank on for steals. I have been conservative with his steals and FG%, both could be higher for even more value.

Causes for Concern

Lowry arrival could have an even greater effect on his assists and fg% than I anticipate.

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15. Kyrie Irving

9 Cat Value (Rank): 0.452 (13)

H2H (Top 7 Cat) Value (Rank): 0.752 (24)

Projected Line:

PTS	3s	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	fg%	FGA	ft%	FTA	TO
24.23	2.60	4.75	5.25	1.25	0.50	0.491	18.50	0.900	3.85	2.40

Season Outlook

Whilst I have Kyrie ranked 15 I want to caveat that by saying we need to closely monitor the COVID-19 vax situation. If he is un-vaxed and unable to play home games – do not draft him in the first 5 rounds. He might be a home run if that restriction lifts in the second half of the year so middle rounds are fine but buyer beware.

Despite missing a ton of games last year Kyrie finished in the top 10 in standard 9-cat last year. He had incredible efficiency – the point of difference here is the fg% (~50%) while providing elite points and guard stats. He is a guy who can win you the league. The interesting point here is he is also someone who can lose you a league due to off the court things. Given injuries can already derail a season, Irvings off the field issues give you real hesitancy early in your draft. Still, if you’re towards the back of the first round sometimes a high-risk high reward option is what can vault you into a commanding position in your league.

Punting Strategy

Balanced – You don’t have many players without flaws but Kyrie is one of them statistically speaking he doesn’t have a flaw to his game. Yes, he doesn’t provide blocks but you don’t get those from guards.

Punt Blocks – Like most players that aren’t bigs/swatters, punt blocks is a high floor way you can build. It’s not something you necessarily have to start the draft with it in mind. Start balanced and you can just pivot to punt blocks when shot-blockers haven’t found their way onto your team.

Early Pairings

Round 1/2:

Karl-Anthony Towns (Balanced) – A dream pairing, Kyrie comes with a games missed risk so it’s fantastic to pair him with a guy who whilst hasn’t been too healthy in recent years, was formerly an iron man, playing close to every game. Their fantasy games perfectly compliment too, giving you a dream balanced start to build around.

Joel Embiid / Anthony Davis (Balanced) – A risky duo to consider if we are targeting Irving. The potential for missed games here is probably hard to swallow. But hypothetically, if Irving and AD or Embiid played most of their games, the per-game production would be amongst the best in the league would no doubt have you right up at the business end of your league.

Brad Beal (Balanced, Punt Blocks) – Two ultra-efficient guards to start your draft. Yes, please. Not having to worry as much about scoring categories or assists is a great way to go into rounds 3, 4 and 5 targeting the best available. There is also a glut of big men that work well with these two that are in that late 30s to early 40s draft range. If you don’t like these bigs, consider punting blocks and source your boards late.

Round 3:

Deandre Ayton (Balanced) – If we also landed Beal, let’s tie-up boards and blocks with some scoring upside and great efficiency. Ayton could break into a bigger role this year, don’t bank on it but there’s the potential.

Khris Middleton (Balanced, Punt Blocks) – I love efficient scoring, Khris Middleton gives us just that with great assists, a trickle of steals and 3s with minimal turnovers. Sign me up. Milwaukee’s number 2 is a great option whether you went a big early to pair with Irving or not.

Brandon Ingram (Balanced, Punt Blocks) – A good alternative to Middleton late in Round 3 is Brandon Ingram. He more or less is what he is in New Orleans now, a great efficient scorer with solid boards and assists.

Optimistic Observations

Let’s say COVID doesn’t sit him for home games and he plays a full season, we are talking about a top 6-7 player. Huge value in the mid to late second.
Just a complete player – I have been very conservative with his numbers this year as we wait and see how the big 3 gel in year two, I expect Harden and KD to take a little bit more of his touches this year but I may have been too conservative.

Causes for Concern

Vaccinations keeping him out of home games would pretty much make him undraftable unless he slipped into the 50s-60s.

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