Punt Points

My favourite build this year – Punt points is the highest potential punt strategy possible. When we punt points we flip the board on its head making mid-round players such as Robert Williams first-round quality players. Players like Draymond Green offer third-round value. This gives you an idea of the power behind this build – you don’t take these players in those draft positions, you take them at their regular spots, but you get incredible value out of doing so. On the right we can see Points plotted against draft position. Each line represents a unique players points z-score. We can see this more clearly in the Which Category Should I Punt? article but points has the steepest gradient of any category – indicating points has the highest correlation with draft position of any of the 9 categories

Points correlation to Draft Position
Points correlation to the other categories

Double Punt Options
In general, we won’t be selecting our first punt until at least 2 rounds in. Really only players who tank FT% lock you into a punting strategy early in the draft although some punt FG% will give you a significant mountain to climb. After 2-3 rounds however you will have a good idea of your teams strengths and weaknesses, if you are significantly down in points in this stage, or Chris Paul is the best available options for you in R3, you will want to consider punting points.

When we punt points – we are afforded 3 very viable double punt strategies. As we can see on the left, Points has a strong correlation with 3s, Assists and FT%. Punt Assists is probably the second most powerful punt strategy behind points and these two combine for an incredibly strong punt strategy.

Punt Points & Assists
Punt Points & 3s
Punt Points & FT%

Keys to the build

In Punt Points we need to win the ratios – what I mean by that is there are typically a couple of categories where there are direct trade-offs:

  • FG% vs FT% – it is especially important that your early-round picks bring these in large volume to anchor both percentages to a high mark.
  • Assists vs Turnovers – the hardest trade-off, this takes active management to pull off but there are plenty of players throughout the draft that can provide assists without killing you in turnovers. Without taking high-volume scorers (who don’t contribute assists) you can be elite in assists an mid-table in turnovers or vice versa.
  • Threes vs FG% – the second hardest trade-off and one that will fly under the radar for most people. Be extra wary of this one. Anytime you can take efficient 3s at around about par value draft wise (ie Zach Lavine at the end of the 3rd or start of 4th, or Desmond Bane in R5) do so.

These are extra important for punt points builds and the key consideration as we draft our squad. If you multiply the number of rounds in your fantasy season by each of these categories (lets say you have 20 matchups) that’s 80 categories. Punt points should aim to win at least 50 if not 60 of these. So 3 out of these 4 every week on average whilst being dominant in big man categories.

You’ll notice below there are a lot of bigs late that fit this build but a lot less smalls. Target smalls that fit early and round out your bigs later.

Players to target

Round 1:

  • Nikola Jokic – Elite FG%, Good A/TO Ratio and above average FT% with elite rebounds – the dream start in any build.
  • James Harden – Elite source of assists and FT% with a handful of 3s and out-of-position rebounds.
  • Kevin Durant – Yes he could lead the league in scoring, but he does so with elite FG% and FT% on big volume.
  • Steph Curry – Another fantastic building block in this build is Steph Curry with his unicorn 3s to FG% ratio.

Round 2

  • Tyrese Haliburton – the dream in the second round or late first. Elite %s, A/TO and Steals
  • Kyrie Irving – Elite %s on volume, 3s and assists on low turnovers – tick tick tick
  • Anthony Davis – out-of-position assists, boards and good percentages. Prefer efficient guards as a lot of bigs in the middle rounds.
  • Kawhi Leonard – With the biggest loss when early rounders miss games being scoring, we negate that in punt points.
  • Jimmy Butler – Same story, reason he’s so low in draft guide is health. Less of a concern in punt points. Doesn’t hit 3s.

Round 3

  • Myles Turner – Elite block specialist with 3s and clean %s.
  • Chris Paul – a stalwart of this build. Best in class A/TO ratio with elite %s
  • Deandre Ayton – Great FG Impact on good volume, great boards
  • Zach Lavine – 3s on elite FG% and FT% with strong assists.
  • Demar Derozan – no 3s but elite FG%, FT% and assists.

Round 4 – 6

  • Nikola Vucevic – clean %s on good volume, great boards with bonus assists and 3s
  • Jrue Holiday – great FG% with elite steals and solid A/TO ratio
  • Khris Middleton – if he falls to mid R5 like I have seen, he is great value as an efficiency boost.
  • Desmond Bane – an incredible source of efficient 3s. Hard to find in this build
  • Draymond Green – from R5 Green is a must-draft player in this build. Can probably get in R6.
  • John Collins – clean big man with 3s and blocks.
  • Klay Thompson – If you are at the back of R6 and need some 3s, Klay is an ultra-efficient source.

Round 7 – 9

  • Mitch Robinson – Has Rob Williams upside from last year but can be taken in R6 or 7.
  • Robert Williams – a top 5 player in this build. Injury is a concern but this build hides injuries better than most.
  • Jarred Vanderbilt – potentially a top 40 player in this build, Draymond without assists. Boards and steals with a block. Need good FT shooters early.
  • Marcus Smart – need good FG impact to counter his shooting but an elite source of assists, 3s and steals later in the draft.
  • Al Horford – a 9 cat gem of a big man, the type of player to draft around 80 regardless of your needs.
  • Mikal Bridges – steals specialist, goes a tad high for me in any build but if he slips past 70 draft him.
  • Jabari Smith – the rookie looks poised to give us an elite combination of 3s, steals and blocks
  • Ivica Zubac – I love his upside this year. A monster source of FG% without FT% headaches.
  • Jalen Smith – a clean big man with 3s and blocks upside this late feels like robbery.
  • Keegan Murray – a little bit of everything post-80 seems like a no-brainer.
  • Herbert Jones – a discount store Mikal Bridges. Top 50 player in this build.
  • Brandon Clarke – should feast with JJJ out. Useful source of big man stats and FG%.
  • Lonzo Ball – take a flier on him late in R9 or R10. Not the most efficient player but its low volume and he helps in all the key areas.
  • Robert Covington – The dream around pick 100 will be Sir Bob, 3s, Rebounds, Steals and Blocks – first round upside if he gets 24+ minutes but will need to be well stocked in the assists department.

Late Rounders

  • Onyeka Okongwu – Reb / Blk
  • Nic Claxton – Reb / Blk
  • Daniel Gafford – Reb / Blk
  • Isaiah Jackson – Reb / Blk
  • Tre Jones – Ast
  • Bobby Portis – Rebs
  • Pat Beverley – Ast / Stl / Blk
  • De’Anthony Melton – 3s / Stl
  • Robert Covington – 3s / Reb / Stl / Blk
  • Matisse Thybulle – Stl / Blk
  • Kyle Anderson – all around
  • Nerlens Noel – Reb / Stl / Blk
  • Isaiah Hartenstein – Reb / Ast / Blk
  • Javale McGee – Reb / Blk
  • Walker Kessler – Reb / Blk
  • Delon Wright – Ast / Stl
  • Bruce Brown – Reb / Ast / Stl
  • TJ Mcconnell – Ast / Stl
  • Joe Harris – 3s
  • Seth Curry – 3s